NFL Week 11 odds, picks, best bets: Chiefs win Super Bowl rematch over Eagles, Dolphins roll over Raiders

I had a 3-1-1 week on my best bets. So just about a great 5-0 week, aside from the Seattle Seahawks gave up a miracle landing to the Washington Commanders with 52 seconds last within the fourth quarter, and the Detroit Lions protection had a difficult time preventing anything else. Yes, Dan Campbell’s offense appears elite, however why are we ignoring how the protection continues to surrender massive performs?

I will be able to all the time be truthful with you on this column. This week is gross. There are a number of massive numbers which are sudden, however on the identical time, you’ll be able to in finding your self hesitant to take the canine. At least now we have a perfect begin to the week with the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals on Thursday night time, after which a Super Bowl rematch on Monday night time with the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs. 

Here’s a take a look at what I’m pondering this week. As all the time, credit to the CBS Sports analysis workforce for making me sound good. 

All odds come courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook

Top 5 alternatives ATS report: 22-25-3
Overall ATS report: 63-82-5
Straight up report: 84-66

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

I’m going to check out to not suppose too arduous about this. The Dolphins are 4-0 SU and ATS at house this season, AND 3-0 ATS as double-digit favorites beneath Mike McDaniel. The Dolphins also are coming off in their bye week whilst the Raiders are at the highway. Miami is 6-1 ATS in its final seven video games following its bye week.

If you’re taking away the Dolphins’ absurd 50-point victory in opposition to the Denver Broncos previous this yr, Miami continues to be profitable its house video games through a median of 16.6 issues. 

The select: Dolphins -13
Projected rating: Dolphins 35-13

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)

Brandon Staley is at the scorching seat. Why? Well, the defensive-minded head trainer has the second-worst protection within the league statistically. Last week’s loss to the Lions was once the PERFECT instance of a “Justin Herbert game.” The celebrity quarterback threw 4 touchdowns, one interception, publish 38 overall issues and nonetheless misplaced. However, I’m taking the Chargers to rebound in Lambeau on Sunday. 

Herbert had his best efficiency in weeks vs. Detroit, which was once just right to peer taking into account he was once coming off of a horrible trip in opposition to the New York Jets the week prior. His 323 passing yards final Sunday ranked moment for him at the season, his 4 passing touchdowns marked a season-high after which the 38 issues scored was once a season-high for the Chargers as smartly. The Packers alternatively have misplaced 5 out in their previous six video games — the lone victory coming in opposition to the Los Angeles Rams, who have been beginning a backup quarterback. 

Green Bay averages 19.9 issues consistent with sport, whilst Los Angeles averages 26.6 issues consistent with sport, which ranks 7th within the NFL. Put merely, I feel the Chargers can out-score the Packers. L.A. is 8-1 ATS in its final 9 highway video games vs. NFC fighters, and 9-4 ATS at the highway since 2022. That’s tied for the best highway ATS report in that span. 

The select: Chargers -3
Projected rating: Chargers 21-17

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)

Justin Fields is returning to the lineup for Chicago. I consider he is the simpler quarterback in comparison to Tyson Bagent, however how will he fare gripping the ball with that injured thumb? Could he be rusty after lacking 4 video games?

This is some other case the place I feel the Lions can simply straight-up outscore the Bears offense. Detroit has lined in 11 immediately divisional video games! That’s tied for the longest streak through any NFL team because the merger.  As for the Bears, they’ve lined the quantity simply as soon as of their final 12 divisional video games. The final time those two groups performed, Detroit received through 31 issues. 

The select: Lions -8
Projected rating: Lions 30-20

If you need a extra analytical means in your NFL picks, then I extremely recommend that you just take a look at the SportsLine Projection Model, which has been on fireplace this yr. Check it out if you wish to know which facet to wager for each and every sport in Week 11.

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

Two suffering AFC East groups face off in Buffalo this week. I’ll take the house favourite with revenge at the thoughts. Remember, the Jets beat the Bills in extra time within the season opener.

New York had a players-only assembly this week to voice frustrations internally, whilst the Bills fired offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey after a gross appearing vs. Denver. Which squad goes to come back in combination, and which one will additional fall aside? 

The Bills offense has turnover problems and Josh Allen must get Stefon Diggs the ball extra regularly, however Buffalo continues to be most sensible 8 within the league in scoring. The Jets’ scoring offense alternatively ranks within the backside 3, and their problems are extra critical. The Jets have long gone 11 quarters, 36 offensive drives and 186 performs from scrimmage with out scoring a landing. Yikes. 

The 5-5 Bills are 4-1 in Buffalo this season, and are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS of their final 4 video games following back-to-back losses. This isn’t a small quantity, however I shouldn’t have any religion within the Jets. 

The select: Bills -7
Projected rating: Bills 24-14

Philadelphia Eagles at Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5)

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN, fubo)

Super Bowl rematch be damned. The actual tale in Kansas City on Monday night time is that two robust households will meet for the primary time. Entertainment Tonight reviews Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce are introducing their households to one another at this sport, so the Chiefs will win through 1,000,000. Kansas City, after all, is undefeated when Swift is in attendance.

This is the ninth-ever Super Bowl rematch in what’s the following season. The Super Bowl winner has received six of the 8 matchups. The Chiefs are 4-0 SU and ATS at house this season. The Eagles, who’re coming off in their bye, are 3-7-1 ATS of their final 11 video games following the bye week. 

I’m now not going to mention the Eagles had been “bad” at the highway, however they have not been fantastic both. They did not duvet the unfold in opposition to the Commanders of their final highway matchup, and misplaced to the Jets within the second-to-last sport clear of Philly. I’ll take the Chiefs at house with the quantity this low. 

The select: Chiefs -2.5
Projected rating: Chiefs 27-24

Other Week 11 alternatives

Ravens (-3.5) 26-20 over Bengals
Steelers (+1) 13-10 over Browns
Cowboys 27-17 over Panthers (+10.5)
Texans 23-21 over Cardinals (+5)
Commanders (-9) 24-13 over Giants
Jaguars 22-21 over Titans (+7)
49ers (-11.5) 28-14 over Buccaneers
Rams (+1) 24-21 over Seahawks
Broncos (-2.5) 23-20 over Vikings