MLB playoffs: Five bold predictions for postseason as Astros, Twins end streaks, Phillies find breakout star

The 2023 MLB common season is within the books. This season marked the end of Miguel Cabrera’s Hall of Fame occupation (and likewise the nice Adam Wainwright’s) however now not the end of the Angels’ postseason drought. They as soon as once more did not qualify for the postseason regardless of rostering Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout, two of the finest avid gamers we have now ever observed.

This is Year 2 of the brand new postseason structure and the playoffs start Tuesday with the best-of-three Wild Card Series. Here is that this 12 months’s postseason bracket:

AMERICAN LEAGUE
BYE: No. 1 Braves and No. 2 Dodgers
WC1: No. 6 Diamondbacks at No. 3 Brewers (winner performs Dodgers)
WC2: No. 5 Marlins at No. 4 Phillies (winner performs Braves)

NATIONAL LEAGUE
BYE: No. 1 Orioles and No. 2 Astros
WC1: No. 6 Blue Jays at No. 3 Twins (winner performs Astros)
WC2: No. 5 Rangers at No. 4 Rays (winner performs Orioles)

The Orioles and Rangers are each again within the postseason for the primary time since 2016, and the Diamondbacks have returned for the primary time since 2017. The O’s and D-backs each misplaced 110 video games as just lately as 2021. Impressively fast turnarounds via them. We even have 3 groups (Brewers, Rangers, Rays) looking out for their first ever World Series championship.

My preseason bold predictions were not nice, regardless that I did nail a couple of, and my motto is in case you get numerous bold predictions right kind, you were not bold sufficient. Or a minimum of that is what I inform myself to really feel higher. Anyway, let’s perform a little postseason bold predictions, we could? Let’s get to it.

1. The Twins will end the dropping streak

I say sorry, Twins lovers, however it’s inescapable this time of 12 months. Minnesota, the AL Central champs, takes an unfathomable 18-game postseason dropping streak into October. They have now not gained a postseason recreation since Game 1 of the 2004 ALDS on the previous Yankee Stadium. Johan Santana outdueled Mike Mussina, Jacque Jones hit a house run, and Joe Nathan were given the save.

The 18-game postseason dropping streak is not only the energetic longest postseason dropping streak in baseball. It’s the longest within the historical past of the 4 primary North American professional sports activities leagues. Here’s the record:

1. Minnesota Twins: 18 video games and counting (2004 to give)
2. Chicago Blackhawks: 16 video games (1975-79)
3. Detroit Pistons: 14 video games and counting (2008 to give)
4. Los Angeles Kings: 14 video games (1993-2001)
5. Several groups tied at 13 video games

My first bold prediction is low-hanging fruit: Minnesota will snap the 18-game postseason dropping streak. Specifically, I’ll say they do it in Game 1 of the Wild Card Series in opposition to the Blue Jays. The streak would possibly not get to 19 video games. It’ll prevent at 18.

In all sincerity, I can say this 12 months’s Twins seem higher constructed for the postseason than earlier iterations. Sonny Gray and Pablo López are a robust 1-2 punch atop the rotation and they are able to drop the hammer with Jhoan Duran within the 9th inning. They want Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa to be wholesome and productive and that is the reason a large if at the moment, however I don’t believe those Twins might be a pushover in October.

2. Acuña will set a stolen base report

Braves wunderkind Ronald Acuña Jr. simply wrapped up the best power-speed season in baseball historical past. He is the constitution member of the 40/70 membership — he was once additionally the constitution member of the 40/50 and 40/60 golf equipment — and is more likely to win NL MVP honors. No disrespect is supposed to the nice Mookie Betts. It’s simply that 40/70 might be exhausting for electorate to forget about.

Anyway, for this subsequent bold prediction, I can say Acuña’s stolen base prowess will raise over into the postseason and he’ll set the report for maximum stolen bases in one sequence. Only 5 occasions in historical past has a participant stolen a minimum of seven bases in one postseason sequence. The record:

Those are the blokes you’ll be expecting, appropriate? No participant has stolen even 5 bases in one postseason sequence since Cleveland’s Omar Vizquel went 5 for 5 stealing bases in opposition to the Marlins within the 1997 World Series. The remaining participant with 4 stolen bases in one postseason sequence was once Jason Heyward. He stole 4 baggage in 4 tries with the Cubs within the 2016 World Series.

This bold prediction says Acuña will smash Henderson’s report and thieve 9 bases in one sequence this postseason. That is so much of stolen bases. For what it is value, Acuña has stolen as many as seven bases in a five-game span in his occupation, and as many as 8 bases in a seven-game span. Also, take a look at the ground of the common season caught-stealing fee leaderboard:

30. Mets: 13%
29. Marlins: 14%
28. Padres: 15%
27: Pirates: 15%
26. Blue Jays: 16%
27: Brewers: 16%
28: Dodgers: 16%

Four of the ones seven groups are within the postseason. If the Braves run into one in all them one day, and Acuña is feeling competitive, 9 steals may well be within the playing cards. On the opposite end of the spectrum, the Orioles (27%), Rangers (25%), and Twins (25%) are the most effective groups at fighting steals. They’re within the different league regardless that. Less probability of Acuña seeing them in October.

3. Kerkering might be this 12 months’s Okay-Rod

Two a long time in the past Francisco Rodríguez burst onto the scene as a September name up with the 2002 Angels, and he carried out so smartly that now not simplest did he make the postseason roster, he was once a depended on high-leverage possibility all the way through October. Okay-Rod had a 1.93 ERA in 18 2/3 postseason innings that 12 months, and he threw a scoreless 8th inning within the World Series clincher.

This postseason, Phillies righty Orion Kerkering will grow to be a family title and this 12 months’s Okay-Rod. The 2022 fifth-round select had a 1.51 ERA with 79 strikeouts in 53 2/3 innings at 4 minor-league ranges this season, and Philadelphia referred to as him up on Sept. 22. The 22-year-old struck out six in 3 scoreless big-league innings down the stretch.

Kerkering’s slider is already within the dialog for the finest slider in baseball. It has “sweeper” traits — large spin and a ton of horizontal smash — however he additionally throws it within the upper-80s. Most sweepers are within the low-80s. His upper-90s sinker is a horny nice 2d pitch too. Kerkering has the type of electrical bat-missing stuff that performs within the postseason.

This newest bold prediction calls for Kerkering to head from overdue September name as much as affect reliever within the postseason. Craig Kimbrel has been shaky of overdue and Seranthony Domínguez has but to rediscover his 2022 shape following an indirect damage previous this 12 months. There’s a gap for Kerkering to grow to be a depended on right-handed possibility.

(Yes, Kerkering is postseason eligible even though he wasn’t added to the 40-man roster until Sept. 22.)

4. The Astros will now not make the ALCS

Only 4 groups making the Championship Series each and every 12 months, so predicting a selected workforce would possibly not make it isn’t particularly bold. The odds at all times desire the sector. The Astros aren’t maximum groups regardless that. They have long gone to the ALCS in each and every of the remaining six seasons. That’s the longest streak of Championship Series appearances within the wild-card technology (since 1995). 

Here are Houston’s remaining six postseasons:

• 2017: Won World Series vs. Dodgers
• 2018: Lost ALCS vs. Red Sox
• 2019: Lost World Series vs. Nationals
• 2020: Lost ALCS vs. Rays
• 2021: Lost World Series vs. Braves
• 2022: Won World Series vs. Phillies

Six immediately seasons of being some of the remaining 4 groups standings is very spectacular. Especially on this present technology of relative parity — there has now not been a back-to-back World Series winner for the reason that 1998-2000 Yankees — and an increasing number of massive postseason fields. There’s one thing to be stated for realizing tips on how to win. Doubt the Astros at your personal possibility.

That all stated, I expect the Houston’s ALCS streak ends this 12 months. Specifically, I’ll say they get bounced via the Twins within the ALDS. So there may be in point of fact 3 bold predictions: 1) the Twins will end their postseason dropping streak, 2) the Twins will advance to the ALDS, and three) the Twins will even advance to the ALCS. They have not completed that since 2002.

5. A beginning pitcher will throw the overall pitch of 2023

I’m leaving this ultimate bold prediction deliberately obscure. I expect a beginning pitcher will throw the overall pitch of the World Series and thus the 2023 MLB season, regardless that I’m going to go on offering additional the main points. Does he throw a whole recreation? Does he pop out of the bullpen? Does he even seal a win? He may additionally serve up a walk-off. The probabilities are unending!

And, truthfully, a beginning pitcher throwing the overall pitch of the World Series is not that bold. It’s took place thrice within the remaining six years. Here are the overall outs of the remaining six World Series:

Morton, Sale, and Urías are all beginning pitchers who made begins previous in that 12 months’s World Series. And when push got here to shove within the doable clincher, their managers depended on them to get the overall outs over the relievers within the bullpen.

This remaining bold prediction sees that taking place once more this season. In the World Series clincher, somebody who has labored essentially as a beginning pitcher each all the way through the common season and postseason might be at the mound for the overall pitch. I am hoping it is a whole recreation. That can be so cool. There has now not been a whole recreation in a World Series clincher since Josh Beckett’s Game 6 shutout at Yankee Stadium in 2003.