MLB playoff picture: What happens to the Rangers, Astros, Mariners and Blue Jays in three- and four-team ties?

Only two days stay in the 2023 MLB common season, but 5 postseason spots are nonetheless up for grabs, together with the AL West name. All 5 spots may well be made up our minds Saturday, however, in that case, the AL West would no longer be made up our minds till Sunday. One approach or some other, the ultimate day of the common season will characteristic a minimum of two significant video games.

The Rangers these days sit down in first position and but they might leave out the postseason completely. Here are the related groups in the AL West and AL wild-card races getting into Saturday:  

Conveniently, the Mariners and Rangers are enjoying at T-Mobile Park this weekend. Seattle gained Thursday’s opener thank you to J.P. Crawford’s walk-off hit, then they blew Texas out Friday evening (SEA 8, TEX 0). The Blue Jays are web hosting the Rays and the Astros are on the street enjoying the Diamondbacks, who’re combating for their very own postseason lives.

There exists the doable for chaotic three- and four-team tiebreakers involving the AL West and AL wild-card races. It would require a number of issues going precisely proper, however it may occur. Here’s how the ones three- and four-team tiebreakers would shake out.

Three-team tie in AL West

The state of affairs: Astros, Mariners, and Rangers all end 89-73; Blue Jays end 90-72 or 91-71

How it happens: Mariners beat Rangers on Saturday and Sunday; Astros move 1-1 vs. D-Backs; Blue Jays win a minimum of one vs. Rays

The consequence: Mariners win AL West; Blue Jays get moment wild-card spot; Astros get 3rd wild-card spot; Rangers out

Wait, what? First, the simple section: Toronto clinches the moment wild-card spot with one win this weekend. As for the AL West, the three-group tiebreaker in this example is blended head-to-head profitable share. These could be the head-to-head data in our three-group tie state of affairs:

That .538 profitable share is the place our center of attention lies. Because of that, the Mariners could be named AL West champs in the match all 3 golf equipment end with the identical file. And as a result of Houston gained the season collection towards Texas, they might be given the 3rd wild-card spot, and the Rangers move house. Seattle finishes atop the AL West and the ultimate wild-card standings would seem like this:

1. Rays: 97-65 or 98-64 (since they are enjoying Toronto this weekend)
2. Blue Jays: 90-72 or 91-71 (profitable a minimum of one recreation this weekend is very important to 3rd three-group AL West tie state of affairs)
3. Astros: 89-71
4. Rangers: 89-71 (lose three-group tiebreaker, move house)

This, clearly, is the nightmare state of affairs for the Rangers. They can clinch the AL West name Saturday with a win and an Astros loss, however they may well be on the out of doors of the postseason image completely by way of the finish of the day Sunday. Texas can steer clear of this doable crisis by way of profitable a minimum of considered one of their two video games towards Seattle this weekend. Got it? Good.

Four-team tie with AL West and Blue Jays

The state of affairs: Astros, Blue Jays, Mariners, and Rangers all end 89-73

How it happens: Mariners beat Rangers on Saturday and Sunday; Astros move 1-1 vs. Diamondbacks; Blue Jays move 0-2 vs. Rays

The consequence: Mariners win AL West; Astros get moment wild-card spot; Rangers get 3rd wild-card spot; Blue Jays out

Wait, what? If you understood the whole lot that went on above, the four-team tiebreaker is not that sophisticated. Here is how this four-team tie is damaged:

1. AL West winner is topped the use of the three-group tie state of affairs laid out above, so Mariners win the department.
2. The Astros, Blue Jays, and Rangers undergo the three-group tiebreaker to come to a decision the second-card spot.
3. The 3rd wild-card spot is made up our minds the use of head-to-head file of the closing two groups.

Here are the blended head-to-head data for step 2 in that procedure:

The Astros have the highest blended head-to-head profitable share towards the different two groups, so that they get the moment wild-card spot. The Rangers get the 3rd wild-card spot no longer as a result of they’ve the moment highest blended profitable share, however as a result of they gained the season collection towards Toronto. That’s step 3 above.

Here’s what the ultimate wild-card standings would seem like in the match of a four-team tie (Mariners win the AL West, take into accout):

1. Rays: 99-63 (beat Blue Jays two times this weekend)
2. Astros: 89-73
3. Rangers: 89-73
4. Blue Jays: 89-73 (lose four-team tiebreaker, move house)

The Blue Jays can steer clear of this four-team tiebreaker state of affairs with a win Saturday or Sunday. If they to find themselves on the out of doors of the postseason having a look in as a result of this four-team tie, they are going to haven’t any one to blame however themselves. The Blue Jays keep watch over their very own future. They have to move deal with industry this weekend.

As a reminder, MLB and the MLBPA agreed to get rid of Game 163 tiebreakers when the new postseason structure was once applied ultimate yr. All ties are damaged mathematically now. That’s too dangerous. We may’ve had some actually a laugh tiebreaker recreation chaos with this three- and four-team tie eventualities. Alas, what you notice above is how those races could be made up our minds.