Welcome to the league championship sequence, with the ALCS beginning on Sunday and the NLCS coming Monday. It’s such a thrilling time and I’m elated to proceed with Best Bets right here in this fantastic Sunday.
The most effective factor about Sunday that brings me down is that Trea Turner would possibly not be in motion. He has been our golden goose this postseason. The Phillies have performed in six playoff video games, I’ve guess the over on his hits plus runs plus RBI (H+R+RBI) prop all six occasions and it has cashed all six occasions. Ridiculous.
I if truth be told were given a bit of anxious prior to Game 4. That voice in my head began to mention I’ve pressed my good fortune a long way an excessive amount of on him and will have to go into reverse. Fortunately, the principled gambler in me mentioned I used to be going to journey him so long as he used to be scorching. It’s like taking part in blackjack and having an absurd scorching streak the place the broker busts one thing like seven occasions in a row. You do not depart the desk. You wait till you may have had a couple of shedding fingers and for certain the new streak is over. In the case of Turner and Game 4, he went 4 for 4 with a double and residential run, simply cashing.
I inform this tale for a explanation why. I’ve run into baseball gamblers who would possibly not play props on a participant if he had a large sport yesterday. I will’t in all probability pass tougher against this. The scorching hand principle can completely paintings and this Turner streak is evidence.
We’ll be again Monday with a Trea Turner play and that’s not a spoiler. We’re taking part in him each unmarried sport till he provides us a explanation why to not. In the period in-between, let’s make this 16-9 file higher.
Rangers (+119) at Astros (-140), 8:15 p.m. ET
Starting pitchers: LHP Jordan Montgomery (10-11, 3.20) vs. RHP Justin Verlander (13-8, 3.22)
The combat for Texas is the ALCS, in the primary ever LCS matchup between two groups from the similar state. The Astros received the regular-season sequence 9-4, however that does not if truth be told imply they’ve the benefit right here. They do get home-field benefit because of this, however that might if truth be told be a blessing in cover for the Rangers. The Astros had been 39-42 at domestic this steady season and had been 1-1 in the ALDS. I will’t shake the 2019 World Series vibes.
The play: Marcus Semien over 1.5 H+R+RBI (-155)
There’s a large number of juice in this, however it is gonna be well worth the squeeze. Semien led the league in each runs (122) and hits (185) throughout the steady season. He additionally drove domestic 100 runs in spite of being a leadoff guy. That makes for an reasonable of two.51 H+R+RBI in line with sport and most effective want two right here. He hasn’t hit slightly as smartly in the playoffs, however he is nonetheless long gone over in this prop 3 out of 5 video games.
Most enticingly is Semien’s history against Verlander. They’ve if truth be told confronted each and every different 43 occasions with Semien getting 14 hits (.326 reasonable) with a double, triple and two domestic runs. The most up-to-date assembly used to be Sept. 6, when Verlander labored seven strong innings, permitting most effective two runs (one earned) and Semien went 3 for 3 with a house run and RBI unmarried.
Semien has most effective struck out one time against Verlander since 2019 and because July 24 of 2019, he is amassed 8 hits, together with two domestic runs and a double, in comparison to one strikeout. For no matter explanation why, Semien simply sees the ball rather well out of Verlander’s hand. We do not want to concern a couple of explanation why; we will simply play the prop right here and take benefit.