With that during thoughts, listed below are a couple of imaginable first-round upsets that may help in making your brackets vary from everybody else’s.
(See additionally our very best bets to win all of it, our at hand cheat sheet and our “perfect bracket.”)
No. 12 Oral Roberts over No. 5 Duke
Led by way of guard Max Abmas, the tournament’s main scorer who helped lead Oral Roberts to the Sweet 16 as a No. 15 seed two years in the past, the Eagles haven’t misplaced since Jan. 9 and received their 3 Summit League tournament video games by way of a mean of 18.3 issues. Oral Roberts commits a turnover on simplest 13.2 p.c of its possessions, which leads the country, and Duke isn’t in particular adept at forcing turnovers on protection, rating 273rd in turnover share. Plus, the Eagles have an efficient box function share — which takes under consideration the truth that three-pointers are value greater than two-pointers — of 56.1, which ranks 7th nationally. Oral Roberts would possibly fight for rebounds in opposition to the country’s tallest workforce, but when its pictures are falling like they usually do, be careful.
No. 12 Drake over No. 5 Miami
The Bulldogs and Hurricanes are separated by way of simplest 26 spots in Ken Pomeroy’s rankings, the smallest distinction of the 5-12 matchups on this yr’s tournament and a smaller distinction than probably the most 7-10 video games (Missouri and Utah State are 33 spots aside, with No. 7 seed Missouri in fact the decrease workforce) and perhaps 3 of the 6-11 matchups (Creighton and North Carolina State are 42 spots aside, Iowa State and Pittsburgh could be 54 spots aside if the Panthers win their play-in sport, and TCU and Arizona State could be 41 spots aside if the Sun Devils win their play-in sport). Drake’s warring parties snatch rebounds on simplest 22.4 p.c in their ignored pictures, a share exceeded by way of simplest two groups this season. Miami might be with out beginning ahead Norchad Omier, who injured his ankle within the Hurricanes’ ACC tournament semifinal loss to Duke. Omier averages 13.6 issues and a team-high 9.7 rebounds, and his absence could be devastating to a Miami workforce that doesn’t differently have a in particular sturdy inside of presence.
No. 10 Boise State over No. 7 Northwestern
This could be an disillusioned in the case of seeding simplest, since the level unfold on this one is beautiful slender (the Wildcats had been appreciated by way of 1.5 issues as of Monday afternoon after lingering as a pick ’em within the fast aftermath of Selection Sunday). Plus, the Broncos are ranked upper than the Wildcats in Pomeroy’s ratings. Northwestern is a deficient capturing workforce, making simply 32.1 p.c of its three-point makes an attempt this season, and Boise State ranks thirty second nationally in warring parties’ three-point share (31 p.c). And when warring parties pass over their pictures, the Broncos normally are proper there to corral the rebound, rating sixteenth in the case of warring parties’ offensive rebounding share.
No. 13 Furman over No. 4 Virginia
Furman’s relative loss of athleticism received’t be examined an excessive amount of in opposition to Virginia, which operates on the slowest tempo of any NCAA tournament workforce (61.6 possessions consistent with 40 mins). Plus, the important thing to beating the Cavaliers’ pack-line protection is to shoot excessive of it, and the Paladins received’t be shy about that: They reasonable 27.5 three-point makes an attempt consistent with sport (twelfth nationally) and make 9.5 (nineteenth). Virginia is simplest middling at protecting the three-point shot and, at the different aspect of the ball, isn’t a in particular just right offensive rebounding workforce, and Furman has the dimensions to blank up the Cavaliers’ misses.