Three more teams fell for the first time last week. We are now down to just six undefeated teams, all of which would make the College Football Playoff should they win out. There has not been a season with four major undefeated teams in the BCS/CFP era, though.
Each week, I will use this space to tell you what I think are a few of the best bets heading into the weekend. I will also throw in an upset of the week, which will be a team that is at least a touchdown underdog that I am picking to win outright.
I will also give you picks on other games involving potential College Football Playoff teams. Now that we have actual CFP Rankings to work with, I will pick games involving teams that are either undefeated or major conference teams with no more than one loss.
Back-to-back hits on the upset special have gotten me back into positive territory. I’m also due to hit on a point total, so I’ll pick an old reliable one this week. Here are this week’s picks. Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
Week 10 picks
Michigan State at No. 16 Illinois
Featured Game | Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Michigan State Spartans
You have to wonder what Michigan State’s mindset will be going into this game. Coming off of a loss to Michigan isn’t the problem, of course; it’s the post-game incident in the tunnel that has the program under scrutiny. Seven players from the defense have been suspended indefinitely, including three starters and three others who played in the Michigan game. Illinois should have its way with the Spartans depleted defense. Pick: Illinois -16
No. 17 North Carolina at Virginia
Featured Game | Virginia Cavaliers vs. North Carolina Tar Heels
What we have here is a team with a great offense and a lousy defense playing against a team with a decent defense and a lousy offense. I believe the Tar Heels are going to score in the 40s, which means they must hold the Cavaliers to around 33 points to cover the spread. Virginia has not scored more than 20 points against an FBS opponent this season, but even if it scores 30, I like Carolina to cover. Pick: North Carolina -7.5
Air Force vs. Army
Featured Game | Army West Point Black Knights vs. Air Force Falcons
You know the drill by now. As my colleague Tom Fornelli has been saying for years, take the under in games between service academies. The run-heavy option offenses chew up clock, limit possessions and keep the scores down. Usually, these lines are in the upper 30s, so it’s nice to get one this high to jump on. Pick: Under 40
Upset of the week
West Virginia at Iowa State
Featured Game | Iowa State Cyclones vs. West Virginia Mountaineers
Iowa State has a good defense, but not much of an offense. As a result, it tends to be in close, low-scoring games. All six of the Cyclones’ games against Power Five competition have ended with margins of seven points or fewer except the most recent 14-point loss to Oklahoma. They have lost the last five of those games. West Virginia is a little more unpredictable, but Mountaineers can at least hang around — and possibly come away with the win. Pick: West Virginia (+228)
Other CFP candidates
Which college football picks can you make with confidence in Week 10, and which top-25 teams will go down hard? Visit SportsLine to see which teams will win and cover the spread — all from a proven computer model that has returned almost $3,000 in profit over the past six-plus seasons — and find out.