Robert Robbins is a person with an open thoughts. Arizona’s president desires it recognized that he believes a brand new TV rights deal appropriate to everybody within the Pac-12 will probably be finished in a few weeks.
“I think it’s very high,” Robbins mentioned of the possibilities of doing that deal. “Let’s just say more than 95% confidence limits on this.”
But as they within the industry global, all of the endeavor is a “soft circle.” In different phrases, there may be interest from Pac-12 faculties in doing a deal if the cash is true.
“A number don’t mean anything until it’s a written contract,” Robbins advised CBS Sports. “In Mississippi, they would say, ‘They’re about to fixin’ to give me something.’ They haven’t quite done it yet. We have to get a real in-writing offer.”
Robbins and Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark have spoken. That’s no secret. CBS Sports prior to now reported Yormark had equivalent conversations with the opposite Four Corners faculties (Arizona State, Colorado, Utah). And it is evident Arizona, amongst others within the league, has choices. Robbins calls the Big 12 being in “recruit mode.”
The Pac-12 presidents ultimate spoke in individual March 7, a gathering wherein the ones TV rights figures had been mentioned. That all-in quantity will in the long run decide whether or not the league remains in combination or splinters.
It’s honest to mention there may be some stage of interest within the Big 12 from the ones faculties, as a result of thus far, a Pac-12 deal has now not materialized.
“We could drive to Lubbock,” Robbins mentioned of the site of Texas Tech, a Big 12 program. “Texas schools are good for us. Oklahoma State, it’s just not that far. It’s a two-hour flight.”
Robbins has already talked to his friends within the Big 12. Heck, he talks to school CEOs in every single place the rustic. That’s Robbins: a gregarious, sensible, analytic, cutting edge, across the world famend cardiac surgeon.
In a wide-ranging interview with CBS Sports on Wednesday night time, Robbins supplied what may well be essentially the most within take a look at the Pac-12-Big 12 realignment tussle thus far.
Robbins mentioned out loud what the trade has been whispering: Fox had an important hand in luring USC and UCLA to the Big Ten. We realized that Arizona and Arizona State are principally a bundle deal with Robbins and ASU president Michael Crow in lockstep. If one leaves the convention, the opposite would possibly apply.
“The value of us, president [Michael] Crow and I, is even though we could go our separate ways, we’re pretty locked in with each other,” Robbins mentioned. “We don’t want to have a Texas-Texas A&M situation where one of us goes to one conference and one of us goes to the other. We’re pretty aligned in that regard. If you take us in a bundle, that’s a pretty attractive thing.”
We additionally realized that Pac-12 commissioner George Kliavkoff is at the clock with a comfortable cut-off date to get a TV deal performed. Let’s damage it all down.
The magic quantity
Clearly, the quantity to overcome — or no less than manner — is $31.6 million. That’s moderate annual quantity of income every Big 12 staff gets when its new media rights deal starts in 2025. Robbins mentioned an opening of $2 million or much less is not going to make a distinction. OK, then how a lot much less is Arizona keen to just accept sooner than critically making an allowance for the Big 12?
“For a couple of million, I don’t see people leaving,” Robbins mentioned. “… I think our total will definitely be higher than the Big 12. If I’m wrong about that, is it $5 million [less per year that forces schools to consider leavig], is it $7 million, is it $8 million, is it $10 million?”
Big 12 athletic administrators imagine their “all-in” quantity — together with income from the College Football Playoff, bowl video games and the NCAA Tournament — will probably be round $50 million once a year within the new deal.
“I still think our number is going to be more than 50,” mentioned Robbins.
That would possibly the primary time that declare has been made within the Pac-12.
“I know what the Big 12’s number is,” Robbins added. “I just need to hear what the Pac-12’s number is. Then I can make a decision.”
Is there a cut-off date?
Tax day would possibly paintings simply wonderful for the Pac-12. Asked for a cut-off date for Kliavkoff to make a deal, Robbins settled on April 15, kind of …
“Back during the holidays when I was sitting around contemplating life, I said April 15. … I think that is a pretty good time frame for me. Everybody else does not see it that way. They think it should have been yesterday. A couple of weeks from now is certainly better than a month ago.”Â
Is there a conspiracy?
Robbins makes it sound like if the Big 12 can persuade one Pac-12 staff to bolt, that would possibly result in a domino impact.
“If somebody were to bolt right now, depending on who it is, it would clearly be destabilizing, which is why the Big 12 is doing it,” he mentioned. “If they can get me to say, ‘I’m going. I’ve had enough of this. I love those guys in the Big 12. They’re an extension of West Mississippi. They speak my language.’ Then I think it would get interesting quickly. If Colorado and us went together, then you’ve got problems.”
Why Arizona and Colorado? The complete Big 12 narrative has been about getting the Four Corners faculties (Arizona State, Utah the others). Robbins says Big 12 media guide Endeavor and its president, Mark Shapiro, have necessarily orchestrated what he calls a “great PR campaign” along Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark.
“You got to give it to Endeavor,” Robbins mentioned. “I get calls every day, even from my own people in the conference, other presidents [saying], ‘Are you really going? Are you going, going?’ It’s been Colorado and us that they said this about.”
He persevered: “Mark Shapiro is a very savvy guy. Brett is a good guy. They’re in it to win it, I think. They’re in recruit mode.”
Grant of rights signable?
Robbins used to be requested if all 10 Pac-12 faculties would signal a grant of rights when a brand new media rights be offering is made. That file binds a faculties’ TV rights to a convention for the period of this kind of deal. It is basically a promise ring that implies the entire events are going secure.
“If George came back and said, ‘This is the absolute best and final thing I’m going to get and it’s going to continue to get worse unless we do something,’ I think you have to consider, ‘What are we doing here?’ I don’t know what that number is,” Robbins mentioned. “… I think we’re all locked together and committed to making it work and keeping the 10 of us together. Then, if we get a reasonable enough of deal and we convince everybody to sign the grant of rights, then we can have the discussion, ‘Should we go out looking for other people to add?'”
Pac-12 growth?
OK, so what about San Diego State and SMU? They have lengthy been reported to be growth applicants for a brand new Pac-12.
“We’ve got to have a deal before we think about expansion,” Robbins mentioned. (*12*)
What about Oregon, Washington?
Where precisely do the pursuits of the Ducks and Huskies stand?
“USC started this whole thing [to move to the Big Ten]. I think UCLA was a reluctant follower in this whole thing. But [USC] needed a travel partner close by so it makes sense,” Robbins defined. “If Oregon calls Washington up and says, ‘I can double the amount of money you’re getting; come with me to the Big Ten,’ Washington is going to say, ‘OK, I’m in.’ They would love to have gone.
“When I heard it first, the deal used to be going to be USC-Oregon [to the Big Ten]. That is sensible. … Their TV marketplace isn’t that massive, [but] they play in numerous coloured uniforms, and they win. That’s the place I’d have began this factor off.
“I think Fox wanted to consolidate L.A. and not let anybody else in [with USC-UCLA]. I think it’s brilliant. Well played.”
If the Four Corners keep put however Oregon and Washington in the long run bolt, will the Pac-12 continue to exist with lower than 10 groups?
“I’ve always thought yes. Can someone live without two legs? When you start taking an arm off, it depends on what arm it is,” Robbins mentioned.
The wait continues …
Why is a deal taking see you later?
“We’re the only one out there. I think the media companies know we’re not going anywhere. We gotta have a deal,” Robbins mentioned. “Normally, we would just be starting this process, but because the Big 12 jumped out in front, they took $31.6 million — which is what they were getting with Texas and Oklahoma  — and declared victory.”
Editor’s be aware: The $31.6 million determine is in truth considerably upper than what the Big 12 used to be getting with Texas and Oklahoma in its ultimate deal.
Robbins persevered: “That then put the pressure on us to start negotiating earlier. I’ve always said, ‘Let’s run this thing out. Let’s see how many horses we can get in this race.’ … I’m not sure anybody else wants to do that. They want to get a deal done and get this behind us so everybody will stop talking about us. I’m not sure that’s a good enough reason.”
Economic elements developing a topic
The financial system continues to combat, and banks proceed to near. This is necessary to the Pac-12’s deal possibilities. During its negotiations, Disney (house owners of ESPN) and streamers have laid off staff. Robbins is especially delicate to the failed Silicon Valley Bank as a former professor at within reach Stanford.
“That’s where you went to get your money [for start ups],” Robbins mentioned of the financial institution. “Now, it’s done. Now, they’re talking about there’s six other banks that could be done. If you’re asking me to look [ahead], I think we ought to get the best deal we can get right now, which I think is going to be within the next couple of weeks.”
He persevered: “There are a lot of tech companies and some of the traditional analog people that have had to lay people off. I think that’s part of it. The economy is not good, so maybe we did miss our window. If we waited 90 days, could we get a better deal? But I don’t think anybody has the stomach for that.”
Does the Big 12 have a leverage play?
If the Pac-12 deal is on the subject of what the Big 12 is getting, would Yormark believe weaponizing the $100 million he’ll have within the financial institution from the Texas-Oklahoma buyout as kind of a signing bonus?
“That is a good asset for them to make deals with,” Robbins admitted.
How does teachers issue?
What affect does the Pac-12 elite instructional recognition have on Arizona’s resolution? Nine of the 12 present Pac-12 faculties are contributors of the American Association of Universities — most sensible Tier I analysis faculties. Kansas would be the most effective AAU faculty within the Big 12 as soon as Texas leaves.Â
“That’s a big deal,” Robbins mentioned. “It’s a big deal to the Big Ten, and it’s a big deal to us. But at the end of the day, this thing is getting unwieldy. The Big 12 has one AAU, Kansas. When I tried to take it back to the other presidents, that’s something we talked about. But it’s really about TV markets and how much media companies value your brand.”
Too a lot streaming?
Robbins used to be requested what considerations persist about huge portions of Pac-12 video games being proven on a streaming spouse fairly than linear tv. A big streaming presence would virtually definitely imply issues relating to visibility and due to this fact recruiting. CBS Sports has reported that more than 50% of Pac-12 soccer video games may well be unique to streaming.
Robbins mentioned he hasn’t ever heard that dialogue throughout the convention. “No way. … [You hear talk of] it’s going to be all streaming. Nobody is going for that. Over 50%? No, I don’t think so. I think that’s too much. It’s OK if it’s 50-50. … You have to remember, guys our age, people that I went to high school with aren’t going to want to deal with streaming.
“I do not believe it is going to be more than 50%, but when it ended up 50%, I feel it could be OK. But we’re West Coast and we need to recruit the entire country. If the soccer coaches come again and say, ‘Are you from your thoughts?’ We’re the overall resolution makers and not using a query, however we are going to closely seek the advice of our ADs and coaches and all that stuff.”
The gap
No matter what happens with a Pac-12 deal, the SEC and Big Ten will be at least $30 million annually ahead of everyone else on a per-school basis. That gulf is significant and will be difficult to overcome.
“That’s a large quantity. I’ve by no means attempted in my existence to win 3rd position for anything else. If we get a cast bronze medal on this factor, it is the most efficient we will be able to do for at the moment. Most other people have us useless. They have us totally … it is like an aircraft crashing … into the bay right into a 1,000 items. I nonetheless assume we are going to get a cast bronze medal on this factor.”
What are the implications, though, of that difference?
“Woof, discuss cash for amenities, training salaries, beef up of student-athletes, psychological well being, instructional good fortune, vitamin, coaching amenities, anything else you need to discuss. They’re going to obviously be higher than us. But they already are.”