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McALLEN — Democrats minimized their losses Tuesday in South Texas regardless of an unprecedented Republican offensive in the long-blue area. But gone are the days of unquestioned Democratic management there.
South Texas weathered a few of its best races but this cycle, with hundreds of thousands of {dollars} pouring in from round the state and nation. In the finish, Republicans managed to flip solely considered one of three congressional seats they focused, successful what was broadly seen as the most gettable one. The occasion additionally gained one Texas House district in the area — and held on to two others that Democrats had historically managed.
Those gains have been helped by redistricting, but they nonetheless give the GOP a brand new foothold in the area because it appears to be like to future elections.
“Success isn’t always winning every single race,” mentioned Dave Carney, Gov. Greg Abbott’s chief strategist, who was amongst the Republicans who floated a attainable sweep in the three congressional races. “It’s showing in hundreds of races that we actually have a race.”
Republicans planted their flag in South Texas in hopes of peeling off Hispanic voters who’ve historically leaned Democratic. The GOP believed a record number of migrants apprehended along the Texas-Mexico border, mixed with economic concerns as inflation persists, would function an accelerant for Republican progress in the area.
But Abbott didn’t meet his purpose of successful a majority with Hispanic voters statewide, in accordance with one exit poll that confirmed he garnered 40% of their help. Carney mentioned the marketing campaign was “still calculating actual vote, which will take a little bit of time” as voter knowledge turns into obtainable in the coming days.
And Democrats have been fast to downplay the GOP gains in South Texas, arguing they have been made attainable by the Republican-controlled redistricting process last year. Texas Democratic Party Chair Gilberto Hinojosa mentioned it was “complete bullshit” to conclude Republicans’ fifteenth Congressional District victory meant they have been successful new help amongst Hispanic voters, saying it was redrawn to be “less Hispanic and more white.”
“There was no red wave in South Texas,” Hinojosa mentioned in an announcement. “There wasn’t even a red ripple.”
The district’s voters have been 74% Hispanic each earlier than and after redistricting.
Republicans mentioned their candidates outperformed the partisan make-up of the new legislative and congressional districts. For instance, Republican Janie Lopez received Texas House District 37 by 4 factors, a 6-point swing from how Democratic President Joe Biden would have carried out there in 2020 if the new political boundaries have been in place.
“If Democrats think these wins are based on redistricting and political whim, they can continue to take voters for granted and watch Republicans to win,” mentioned Aaron De Leon, vp of the Associated Republicans of Texas, which was a serious participant in state legislative races in South Texas.
While Republicans could not have conjured a red wave this yr, they didn’t lose floor at the prime of the ticket in the Rio Grande Valley, the carefully watched four-county space at the backside of South Texas. Abbott’s deficit matched that of former President Donald Trump, who additionally misplaced by 15 factors in the Rio Grande Valley in 2020. Four years in the past, Democrat Beto O’Rourke carried the counties by greater than double that — 35 factors — in an unsuccessful U.S. Senate run. And in 2016, Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton received the Valley by 39 factors.
ProjectRedTX mentioned Wednesday it helped Republicans win at the least 43 county-level seats in South Texas, creating a brand new “farm team” for the area.
And in congressional races, Democrats’ margins of victory shrank. Although Democratic U.S. Rep. Vicente Gonzalez received in the thirty fourth Congressional District in opposition to fellow incumbent Rep. Mayra Flores, a Republican, his 8-point victory was far lower than what Democrats pulled off in previous cycles. Had the new political maps used in Tuesday’s election been in place two years in the past, Biden would have received the district by 15.5 factors. Gonzalez received Cameron County, the most populous a part of the district, by 3.55 factors. Four years in the past, Democratic Rep. Filemon Vela received the county by roughly 30 factors.
Democrats argue redistricting made it tougher to win the fifteenth Congressional District by including extra conservative areas to the north. But even in the Democratic stronghold of Hidalgo County, Republican candidate Monica De La Cruz bought extra of the vote than in 2020. She misplaced the county by 12.6 factors on Tuesday. Last cycle, she misplaced by over 20 factors. De La Cruz wound up successful the district total.
Jose Borjon, a former chief of employees for Gonzalez who suggested him on this yr’s marketing campaign, acknowledged that “we saw that there’s definitely some people that have gravitated to the Republican Party,” although he highlighted that the counties alongside the Texas-Mexico border remained solidly Democratic.
In the twenty eighth Congressional District, Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar secured a 10th term. He was the most seasoned of the GOP targets, a fixture in Laredo who has seen political battle earlier than. But this cycle was the largest stress check for him but: The FBI raided his house in January, weeks earlier than a rematch with progressive main challenger Jessica Cisneros, after which they went to a runoff when the leak of the U.S. Supreme Court’s reversal of Roe v. Wade forged a harsh highlight on his file as an anti-abortion Democrat.
Democrats like Cuellar and Gonzalez had hoped that their victories can be decisive sufficient to ship Republicans packing from South Texas. But the GOP vowed Wednesday to maintain aggressively contesting the area.
Flores, the Republican whom Gonzalez beat, captured the thirty fourth District in a June particular election that attracted nationwide consideration. But that was beneath the district’s earlier, extra aggressive boundaries, and Democrats opted to not severely make investments in the race beneath the assumption she can be successfully renting the seat till November.
After lamenting Tuesday night time {that a} “red wave” had not come to fruition, Flores was already trying ahead to the subsequent election Wednesday morning, merely tweeting “2024.”
Matt Rinaldi, chair of the state GOP, mentioned in a tweet that redrawing the thirty fourth District to be so closely Democratic “was an absolute waste of Flores’ talent & [Texas] House leadership made a bad call in giving her the short straw in redistricting.”
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee mentioned its $7 million investments in South Texas confirmed that “when we make meaningful investments in the Rio Grande Valley, voters choose Democrats.” Meanwhile, the National Republican Congressional Committee argued that the hundreds of thousands of {dollars} the Democrats spent on seats Biden carried demonstrated they “will remain competitive.”
Cuellar spent a lot of the cycle criticizing his occasion for not taking the border severely sufficient, incomes him common appearances on Fox News. In the weeks earlier than the election, he appeared a number of occasions on the Republican-friendly community with a neighboring GOP congressman, Tony Gonzales.
In Texas Senate District 27, Republican Adam Hinojosa was inside 600 votes of Democrat Morgan LaMantia on Wednesday in an open seat that Biden would have carried by 6 factors. It was a seat that some prime Republicans, together with Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, had hesitated to push onerous for till current weeks, when Patrick reeled in a Trump endorsement for Hinojosa.
Hinojosa issued an announcement Wednesday night in which he mentioned he was nonetheless ready to see last ballots counted.
Republicans additionally mounted critical campaigns in opposition to two state House Democrats in South Texas, state Reps. Abel Herrero of Robstown and Eddie Morales of Eagle Pass. Both received by double digits.
The GOP’s largest defensive victory got here on the South Side of San Antonio, the place state Rep. John Lujan received reelection by 4 factors after flipping the seat in a particular election final yr that Democrats claimed can be a fluke. He received the particular election when it was a district that Biden carried by 14 factors; the redrawn district would have gone for Biden by simply 3.
De La Cruz, the Republican who was victorious in the fifteenth Congressional District, was fast to level out Tuesday that her win was years in the making. She first broke onto the stage in the 2020 election, when she got here inside 3 proportion factors of beating Gonzalez, who was then operating in the district, regardless of having lower than half his marketing campaign money. De La Cruz’s shut run impressed Flores and Cassy Garcia, Cuellar’s Republican opponent, to run this cycle.
“It’s been three years of hard work of educating voters in this area, and I can’t wait to see what the future holds not only for Texas 15 but for 28 and 34,” De La Cruz mentioned in a short interview throughout her election night time occasion.
LUPE Votes, a progressive organizing group based mostly in the Valley, additionally sees continued competitors forward. Its political director, Danny Diaz, mentioned in an announcement that the “Valley should be respected, and we expect it to be a political battleground for years to come.”
Borjon, who suggested Gonzalez, mentioned nationwide Democrats might want to do some soul looking to know the sort of occasion candidate wanted in South Texas, acknowledging how Republicans closely tapped into South Texas voters’ social conservatism. Borjon mentioned extra “progressive wings” of the occasion pushed insurance policies that would have alienated voters on immigration, policing and authorities spending.
Dan Sanchez, the Democrat who misplaced to Flores in the thirty fourth Congressional District’s particular election, mentioned the nationwide occasion might want to proceed spending more cash to battle off Republicans in South Texas.
“Have [national Democrats] spent enough? If you call a win enough, yes. But do they need to spend more? Absolutely,” he mentioned of Gonzalez. “Because in two years, he’s got to do it all over again. And so we don’t know if we’re gonna have someone like Mayra or someone that’s, you know, maybe a little further out there.”
Stephen Neukam contributed reporting.
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