2023 MLB playoffs: X-factors for ALDS and NLDS, including Diamondbacks’ stolen bases and Phillies’ fastballs

Major League Baseball’s 4 Division Series will start on Saturday. The best-of-five matchups come with the Atlanta Braves taking at the Philadelphia Phillies in a rematch from closing fall, in addition to the Los Angeles Dodgers dealing with the Arizona Diamondbacks, the Baltimore Orioles going in opposition to the Texas Rangers, and the Houston Astros assembly the Minnesota Twins. The winners will advance to their respective League Championship Series, the place they are going to then play for a possibility to assert the pennant and a place within the World Series. (You can take a look at the total postseason bracket and agenda by way of clicking right here.)

Before the Division Series will get underway, we right here at CBS Sports sought after to spotlight one doable “X-factor” in each and every matchup. That is, in brief, a sneaky side that might play an oversized position in figuring out the sequence’ consequence. In two of the 4 sequence, we have identified a space the place one workforce’s energy meets the opposite’s weak point. In the opposite two, we have eager about an overlap in strengths. Of route, it will have to be famous that anything else can occur in a three-to-five-game sequence, and that those will have to no longer essentially be handled as deadly flaws — even though they do finally end up serving as fascinating subplots. 

Now, let’s get to it.

1. Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

The X-factor: The working sport 

The Dodgers are just right at many stuff, however no longer fighting stolen bases. Los Angeles surrendered the fifth-most steals throughout the steady season. The Diamondbacks, in the meantime, ranked moment within the majors in stolen bases. Remember that MLB’s rule adjustments — particularly the disengagements prohibit and the broader bases — ended in the league’s best stolen-base fee since 1997.

An incapability to prevent the working sport is ceaselessly blamed at the catcher. That misunderstands the dynamic, despite the fact that, as maximum stolen bases are the pitcher’s fault. That seems to be the case with the Dodgers. Backstop Will Smith ranks twelfth within the majors in pop time, the length between when the ball hits the mitt as opposed to when it reaches the center infielder’s glove. His arm is at the weaker facet amongst big-league catchers, however he makes up for it with a snappy alternate. Smith in reality compares favorably with Diamondbacks catcher Gabriel Moreno in the ones respects. (Moreno’s standing for the sequence is unclear after he used to be struck within the head by way of a follow-through on Wednesday.)

Despite identical metrics, Smith has surrendered 72 stolen bases with only a 21% stuck stealing fee; Moreno has surrendered 35 stolen bases with a 39% stuck stealing fee. There’s extra to be thought to be than simply the above numbers — for example, throw placement — however you get the theory: it is not essentially on Smith if the Diamondbacks get started working wild.

The greatest offenders at the Dodgers facet are Bobby Miller, Clayton Kershaw, and a slew of relievers, including Brusdar Graterol, Shelby Miller, and Phil Bickford. That is usually a pricey flaw in late-and-close video games. On the D-backs’ facet, the most efficient thieves are Corbin Carroll, Geraldo Perdomo, Tommy Pham, and — consider it or no longer — first baseman Christian Walker. Walker went 11 for 11 throughout the steady season, oftentimes with two outs within the inning.

By the way in which, the Dodgers gave up probably the most stolen bases this season to … the Diamondbacks. Arizona went 14 for 15 on makes an attempt throughout 13 video games. Expect them to stay working this sequence. 

2. Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves

The X-factor: Fastballs/sinkers positioned within the decrease part of the strike zone

It’s no secret that the Phillies love to throw their fastballs. They ranked 5th within the majors in cumulative fastball-sinker utilization throughout the steady season. It’s additionally no secret that they prefer to find the ones fastballs and sinkers within the decrease part of the strike zone; they ranked 5th in that appreciate.

Things are going to get novel now, because the Phillies will tackle a Braves squad that ranked first in workforce OPS on fastballs and sinkers positioned in that a part of the zone. In different phrases, that is going to be an example of strength-on-strength.

The Phillies’ pitchers in all probability to assault the Braves in that means in response to their regular-season utilization patterns come with starters Aaron Nola and Ranger Suárez, in addition to relievers Cristopher Sánchez, Gregory Soto, and Seranthony Domínguez. As for the Braves’ hitters best-suited to benefit from the ones pitches … neatly, let’s simply make this easy and throw out a desk: 

For the ones no longer retaining rely as you scrolled, that is seven of the Braves’ on a regular basis avid gamers who had no less than a .930 OPS in plate appearances that ended with a fastball or sinker positioned down within the zone. That’s absurd.

The Phillies overcame the Braves in closing October’s NLDS. They were not as a success in head-to-head matchups throughout the 2023 steady season, going 5-8 in the ones contests and being outscored by way of 16 runs. This would possibly lend a hand provide an explanation for why.

3. Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros

The X-factor: Breaking ball utilization

Whereas the Phillies would possibly want to deviate from their standard gameplan with a purpose to close down the Braves, the Astros might need to lean much more into theirs. Houston’s pitching workforce threw the fifth-highest proportion of breaking balls throughout the steady season. Their ALDS foes, the Twins, ranked twentieth in OPS in opposition to stated breaking balls. Just one different playoff workforce ranked less than 14th: the since-eliminated Milwaukee Brewers, who checked in at twenty fourth.

Only 3 Twins hitters who may conceivably see a large number of enjoying time this sequence had an OPS north of .700 in opposition to breakers throughout the steady season: catcher Ryan Jeffers, infielder Royce Lewis, and outfielder Matt Wallner. Conversely, the trio of Alex Kirilloff, Jorge Polanco, and Michael A. Taylor each and every had OPS under .600. The Twins as a workforce had a 35% whiff fee on breakers, with the most important related offenders being Edouard Julien (44%), Wallner (41%), and Taylor (40.7%). 

On the turn facet, the Astros ranked 5th in breaking ball utilization general, and make use of 8 pitchers who made no less than 10 appearances with the workforce and threw greater than 35% breaking balls:

It’s no longer as simple as to mention the Astros will have to junk mail the Twins with breaking balls — no longer each pitcher is ok with that means, and it would possibly not all the time be efficient if the pitcher lacks really feel for finding his breaker that day. But then, those Astros as soon as noticed Lance McCullers Jr. throw 24 consecutive curveballs to safe the AL pennant:

So, in a way, possibly it is that straightforward for them.

4. Texas Rangers vs. Baltimore Orioles

The X-factor: Pitches positioned at the outer part

We’ll conclude with yet another strength-on-strength state of affairs. The Orioles threw the second-most pitches positioned at the outer 0.33 of the plate throughout the steady season of any MLB workforce. The Rangers ranked No. 1 in OPS on pitches in the similar location.

Texas’ superb weapon on this sequence could be outfielder Adolis García. Not most effective did he post a .938 OPS on outer-third pitches, he additionally homered a majors-leading 18 instances. Only one different batter, Pete Alonso, had as many as 14 house runs on outer-third pitches. Moreover, the Rangers as a workforce homered simply 48 instances on outer-third pitches. García’s energy and plate protection make him a danger to leap the fence from pole to pole. (The Orioles found that out the hard way in April, when he hit this home run off Kyle Gibson.)

Five different Rangers batters had no less than a .750 OPS on outer-third pitches: Nathaniel Lowe, Travis Jankowski, Corey Seager, Evan Carter, and Mitch Garver.

On the Orioles’ facet of the equation, that they had 3 beginning pitchers rank throughout the top-20 in the entire majors in pitches positioned to the outer-third: Dean Kremer (who led the majors in that class), Gibson (5th), and Kyle Bradish (nineteenth). That suggests the primary and moment instances during the lineup on this sequence might be about who can personal the outer portion of the plate.