2023 MLB playoffs: Best bets, picks for ALCS Game 3 on Wednesday with the Astros headed back out on the road

With the Trea Turner performs being 8-0 up to now via 8 Phillies playoff video games right here on Best Bets, it is mildly miserable to run via those on days when the Phillies do not play, however we’re going to make do. We hit the Rangers’ staff general over in the first inning of Game 2 on this collection, anyway, so we’re going to be having a look to stay that going. 

The playoff document up to now right here in Best Bets is a strong 22-10. As a reminder, I’m additionally doing game picks over on SportsLine. 

Astros (+113) at Rangers (-133), 8:03 p.m. ET

Starting pitchers: RHP Cristian Javier (10-5, 4.56 ERA) vs. RHP Max Scherzer (13-6, 3.77 ERA)

The Astros head to Texas with an 0-2 deficit and a big uphill struggle. Their best saving grace this is they do not have to play at house, as a result of for no matter reason why, that is been an issue. They are 40-45 at house in the common season and playoffs mixed whilst having, up to now, long gone 53-30 on the road. 

As a reminder, although, the Rangers nonetheless have not misplaced a playoff sport. They are 7-0 up to now this postseason in spite of having performed six of the ones video games on the road. When they in any case returned house in the ALDS, they cruised to a 7-1 win.

The play: Astros over 4.5 runs (+105)

In six video games in Arlington this season, the Astros scored 58 runs. Yes, virtually 10 in keeping with sport. They closed with 4 instantly 10-plus run video games, together with one the place they touched up Scherzer for seven runs in 3 innings. No topic the road venue, the Astros averaged 5.7 runs clear of house in the common season and scored 12 runs on the road of their two ALDS video games. At this level, it’s not price questioning why they’re a ton higher clear of house and as an alternative it is price embracing for playing good points. 

Plus, I’m no longer positive Scherzer holds up some time. Even if he throws neatly, his simulated sport closing week used to be best 69 pitches, so possibly he may cross 80? The Astros have a couple of affected person hitters that might get him to that general in the 5th inning, and even the fourth. Further, one among the causes Bruce Bochy let Nathan Eovaldi paintings his method out of 2 jams in Game 2 is their bullpen is so shaky. 

With a in all probability compromised Scherzer, the underbelly of the Rangers’ bullpen most likely uncovered and the Astros being clear of house, I really like the road staff to banquet right here on offense.