2023 Masters predictions: Nine trends from the last decade to help identify this year’s green jacket winner

While golfers generally take scouting journeys months upfront to get ready for majors like the U.S. Open or PGA Championship in the United States, maximum have already got a basic concept of what to be expecting as soon as April rolls round and the azaleas are in complete bloom. That’s as a result of Augusta National Golf Club is the simplest path in the global that hosts a big championship on an annual foundation. 

The 2023 Masters starts this week because it at all times does in early April, even though there were some path adjustments in recent times with the elimination of a few bushes on the par-4 eleventh, lengthening of the par-5 fifteenth in 2022, and maximum just lately, lengthening of the par-5 thirteenth forward of the 2023 event. While maximum do take early seems to be at Augusta, the core thought of the golfing path stays in tact. 

You see it yr over yr with veterans apparently discovering shape out of skinny air. It’s no longer that they’re enjoying higher than the stars of these days; it is simply that they’ve huge revel in enjoying Augusta National, in particular extra so than the more youthful technology. Freddie Couples and Tom Watson have made early week fees of their 50s. Bernhard Langer has crushed Bryson DeChambeau two of the last 3 years. Anywhere else on Earth, that most certainly does not occur. Once a participant unearths the key element at Augusta — it varies amongst them — the recipe is as just right as his. 

Not simplest does one’s path wisdom want to be expansive, so does their present skillset. While the ghosts of previous Masters champions pop up on the leaderboard now and again, simplest the ones actually happy with all sides in their recreation can have the endurance to see it thru till Sunday night time. A participant does not simply fall into successful the green jacket (simply ask Dustin Johnson), he frequently trends against it and peaks at the exact proper time. (You too can ask D.J. about this.)

With all this in thoughts, let’s have a look again at the 10 most up-to-date winners of the Masters and identify what trends exist between them as we try to whittle down the box of 88 avid gamers to pinpoint this year’s champion.

Watch all 4 rounds of the 2023 Masters beginning Thursday with Masters Live as we observe the perfect golfers in the global right through Augusta National with Featured Groups, take a look at in at the famed Amen Corner and notice leaders spherical the activate holes 15 & 16. Watch live to tell the tale CBSSports.com, the CBS Sports App and Paramount+.

1. Official World Golf Rankings

It’s a hot-button factor in 2023, and it doesn’t matter what facet of the aisle you stand, there’s no denying OWGR issues at the Masters. Each of the last 10 Masters champions have resided inside of the peak 25 of the OWGR the week main into the event. They’ve ranged from global Nos. 1 like Scottie Scheffler in 2022 and Johnson in 2020 to global No. 25 Hideki Matsuyama in 2021.

Eliminated — Those outdoor the peak 25 of the OWGR. Notables come with: Joaquin Niemann, Tommy Fleetwood, Sahith Theegala, Justin Rose, Jason Day, Adam Scott, Min Woo Lee, Dustin Johnson, Patrick Reed, Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson, Bubba Watson, Sergio Garcia, Brooks Koepka, Bryson DeChambeau, Louis Oosthuizen, Abraham Ancer

2. Maybe do not keep in mind your first time

Only 3 avid gamers have ever gained the Masters of their first makes an attempt: Horton Smith in the first Masters, Gene Sarazen in 1935 and (maximum just lately) Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979. Jordan Spieth got here shut to becoming a member of this staff in 2014 when he held a percentage of the 54-hole lead, and Will Zalatoris just about completed the feat in 2021 when he fell simply wanting Matsuyama. Eliminated: Tom Kim, Kurt Kitayama

3. It’s a gentle climb

They say Augusta National is an bought style. One would possibly not perceive the nuances the first or 2nd time round, however as soon as there’s a recreation plan, all that is left on the desk is execution. Seven of the last 10 Masters champions had a minimum of one top-five end of their Masters careers ahead of donning the green jacket with all 10 having up to now accrued a top-40 end result. Despite his development on golfing’s greatest degree, that knocks out global No. 5 Max Homa, whose perfect end (T48) got here last yr in addition to a pair different younger Americans. Eliminated: Max Homa, Sam Burns, Cameron Young

4. What have you ever finished for me in recent times?

Each green jacket winner since 2013 has notched a top-15 end on the PGA Tour or DP World Tour in a stroke-play tournament over the calendar yr main up to the Masters. Six of the ones had already entered the winner’s circle on the yr — see Scheffler in 2022, Johnson in 2020 and Spieth in 2015 — whilst 8 had discovered a place on the podium in the type of a top-three end result. Eliminated: Billy Horschel 

5. Major-championship pedigree

There were various first-time main winners who’ve damaged thru at Augusta, however none have come with out some prior revel in on a related degree. Eight of the 10 most up-to-date Masters champions had a minimum of a big runner-up end result already to their title with all 10 having a T6 end or higher. In the yr prior to successful, 5 of the last 10 accrued a runner-up end in a big championship whilst 8 had a top-10 end. Eliminated: Tom Hoge

We are down to simply 18 avid gamers who might be able to don the green jacket …

6. Let’s get technical 

Strokes-gained information is a gorgeous factor. In the calendar yr main up to their respective Masters coronations, all 10 champions had been averaging a minimum of +0.65 strokes won according to spherical with the imply of the staff coming in at a whopping +2.14. Only 9 avid gamers are recently averaging greater than +2.00. It was once no longer Scheffler (+2.50) or Spieth (+2.38) who boasted the maximum spectacular metrics forward in their victories however slightly Watson (+3.02) and Johnson (+3.91) — albeit it in an unconventional style given the November Masters — who eclipsed the three-stroke hurdle. A couple of contenders from the 2022 event have not gave the look of their standard selves in the early levels of 2023 and can graciously go out degree left. Eliminated: Cameron Smith, Shane Lowry

7. Speak softly and elevate a large stick

Off-the-tee numbers are the maximum predictive indicator of good fortune in the global of golfing — simply have a look at the perfect avid gamers in the global at the second, they’re additionally a few of the perfect drivers of the golfing ball perhaps ever. The identical rings true at Augusta the place the last 10 winners had been averaging a minimum of +0.10 strokes won off the tee according to spherical in the calendar yr in their victory. Reed was once the low guy of this staff with +0.14 strokes won off the tee according to spherical, 0.01 worse than Spieth’s present reasonable. The golden boy lives (for now), however a well-liked pick out does no longer. Eliminated: Xander Schauffele

8. Iron it out

Augusta National has frequently catered to a few of the perfect iron avid gamers in the global (like Woods). Over the last 3 months, Collin Morikawa has been the perfect in this class (+1.22 strokes won means according to spherical), whilst various giant names have struggled with their scoring golf equipment. The previous 10 winners had been averaging no less than +0.40 strokes won means according to spherical — a bar some traditionally robust means avid gamers have not come shut to sniffing. Eliminated: Will Zalatoris, Matt Fitzpatrick, Sungjae Im, Hideki Matsuyama

9. There wishes to be a Plan B

As they are saying, stuff hits the fan all over main championships, and the Masters isn’t any other. More instances than no longer, there can be some type of turbulence over the process 72 holes, and a participant’s quick recreation can be examined. Whether it was once Scheffler’s chip-in on No. 3 in the ultimate spherical of 2022 or Danny Willett’s up-and-down on the 71st gap in 2016, an around-the-green presence is needed in some form or shape. This is the place a bulk of possible winners merely fall wanting the +0.20 strokes won round the green clip from the prior 10 winners. Eliminated: Viktor Hovland, Collin Morikawa, Tony Finau, Tyrrell Hatton, Keegan Bradley

So the place does that depart us?

From a box of 88 of golfers, simplest six — Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Patrick Cantlay, Justin Thomas and Jordan Spieth — stay. Rahm has gained the maximum occasions this season (3), whilst Cantlay has the perfect tee-to-green numbers of the bunch. Spieth simply has the historical past at Augusta National in his choose, whilst Scheffler (repeat champion) and McIlroy (profession grand slam) have golfing historical past staring them of their respective faces. And truthfully, I anticipated Thomas can be eradicated by way of now, however he made it to the finish as smartly. That’s cool. He’ll most certainly win, by hook or by crook.