It has been one week because the Texas Rangers gained the primary World Series in franchise historical past and we are nonetheless ready for the primary primary transfer of the 2023-24 MLB offseason. That’s no longer strange although. Baseball’s offseason is a marathon, no longer a dash, similar to the season itself. Things — large issues — will occur quickly sufficient. Don’t fear.
Before the ones large issues occur, let’s make some bold predictions for the recent range season, we could? We shall. Let’s get to ’em.
1. Ohtani leaves the Angels and symptoms with …
… the Dodgers. OK, so possibly this is not precisely bold seeing how the Dodgers have lengthy been thought to be the frontrunner to signal Shohei Ohtani, however I do not want to checklist every other staff right here after I do not consider it. I feel Ohtani goes to the Dodgers. I’ll make this prediction bold via announcing it is going to be a 13-year, $500 million contract. Ohtani turns 30 in July and 13 years is a very long time for any participant, however we’ve got observed Los Angeles do that earlier than. They gave Mookie Betts a 12-year contract at age 28 as a result of stretching the contract out over such a lot of years diminished the typical annual price, and thus the aggressive steadiness tax fee. Give Ohtani 10 years and $500 million, and it is a $50 million a 12 months CBT fee. Stretch the $500 million out over 13 years and it is a extra palatable $38.46 million in keeping with 12 months. Also, like Betts, Ohtani’s contract will come with deferrals that decrease the existing day price (and thus CBT fee) even additional. It has been foretold.Â
2. The Padres business Soto …
… to the Yankees. San Diego is making plans to scale back payroll to $200 million subsequent 12 months and they do not completely have to business Juan Soto to achieve this, although delivery him out will be the simplest manner to scale back payroll whilst including more than one younger (and inexpensive) avid gamers to the group. The Yankees are coming off their worst season in 3 a long time and appear poised to do one thing large this offseason. Soto suits their wishes completely as a left-handed hitting outfielder with persistent, endurance, and swagger. A package deal headlined via Michael King and best pitching prospect Drew Thorpe will head to San Diego and the Yankees will take a look at like loopy to signal Soto to an extension, however he’s going to in the long run head out into loose company subsequent iciness after every other 30-homer, .400 on-base season in 2024.
3. Yamamoto will sign up for the opposite New York staff
The Mets have achieved the “big money, short-term contract” factor with Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander the remaining two years to less-than-desirable effects. Now it is time to spend large long-term on a prime-aged participant. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, adorned ace of the Orix Buffaloes in Japan, might be posted for MLB groups this offseason and he grew to become handiest 25 in August. He’s younger and he has the possible to pitch at or close to the entrance of a rotation for a very long time. The Mets struck gold with Kodai Senga remaining offseason and Yamamoto is 5 years more youthful and extra very popular than Senga. Given his age, the bidding warfare might be fierce — the Mets may have to outbid the Dodgers and Yankees, amongst others — so be expecting a freelance within the eight-year, $220 million vary.
4. The Giants in the end get their megastar
That megastar: Jung-Hoo Lee, heart fielder for the Kiwoom Heroes in Korea. Like Yamamoto, Lee is handiest 25, so whichever groups symptoms him will purchase height years in bulk. Lee authored a .318/.406/.455 batting line in 86 video games earlier than struggling a season-ending ankle damage this summer season. Last 12 months, he was once named league MVP after hitting .349/.421/.575 with a career-high 23 homers and greater than two times as many walks (66) as strikeouts (32). He’s additionally a talented defender. The Giants have had a troublesome time signing stars and Lee suits their wishes so nicely. He can pass get it in heart subject and his contact-over-power way is well-suited for spacious Oracle Park. I’m going to say Lee will get a six-year, $90 million contract with an decide out after the fourth 12 months.
5. Bellinger returns to the Cubs
Sometimes a participant and a staff fit up so nicely that it is sensible to proceed the connection. Cody Bellinger had a resurgent 2023 season with the Cubs, one that are supposed to earn him MVP votes, and he’s going to be one of the wanted loose brokers as a 28-year-old have an effect on participant at an up-the-middle place. The Cubs are on the upward thrust and so they have already got a very good younger heart fielder in Pete Crow-Armstrong, however there is not any rule towards having two heart field-caliber defenders at the subject on the similar time. Bellinger re-signs — let’s name it seven years and $180 million — and Chicago’s pitchers get to revel in observing all their fly balls transform outs the following couple of years.
6. The Cardinals land two best starters
President of baseball operations John Mozeliak mentioned he desires 3 starters this offseason, although nabbing a trio of best pitchers might be tricky. I do assume St. Louis will land two large title starters although, one by way of business and one by way of loose company: Shane Bieber and Aaron Nola. Bieber comes over from the Guardians in a switch that sends Tyler O’Neill and a prospect the wrong way, and Nola symptoms a six-year, $150 million contract. That will occur after the Cardinals make a spirited run at Yamamoto, however in the long run are not able to cling with the Dodgers and Mets and Yankees within the bidding warfare. Bieber and Nola are a gorgeous great Plan B although.
7. Votto joins his homeland staff
This previous weekend the Reds declined their $20 million membership possibility for Joey Votto, a transfer that was once totally anticipated, and the staff’s commentary made it beautiful transparent a) they’ll no longer pursue a reunion at a decrease wage, and b) Votto does no longer intend to retire simply but. Votto grew to become 40 in September and he hasn’t carried out nicely the remaining two years, although he additionally performed via shoulder bother, together with season-ending surgical treatment in August 2022. That mentioned, he is a hitting savant who’s as excellent a gamble as someone to make changes and get on target. Votto grew up in Toronto and the Blue Jays have a transparent want for a lefty hitting DH, plus they may use some excellent clubhouse vibes. He would supply all of that for his homeland staff. One 12 months and $1 million lands Votto again house in Toronto.
8. The Orioles spend not up to $50 million on loose brokers
We all agree the Orioles must spend this offseason, proper? They gained 101 video games and went to the postseason this 12 months, and so they had the second-lowest payroll in baseball. Baltimore has an enviable younger (and inexpensive) core, although in addition they badly want rotation assist, so that they must spend, sure? Alas and alack, proprietor John Angeles and GM Mike Elias have proven little inclination to spend, with Angelos even saying they would have to raise prices substantially to afford extensions for their young players. The O’s must spend this offseason, however I are expecting they’ll no longer, rather talking. They will spend not up to $50 million on loose brokers. That’s $50 million general, over alternatively a few years. I do not imply they’ll decline to upload $50 million to payroll in 2024.
9. Three best starters re-sign with their staff
Those starters: Sonny Gray again to the Twins, Jordan Montgomery again to the Rangers, and Eduardo Rodriguez again to the Tigers. Gray will get two years and $50 million, Montgomery will get 5 years and $125 million, and Rodriguez will get 5 years and $100 million. Gray and Rodriguez appear ok with their groups — Rodriguez vetoed a business to the Dodgers on the time limit to stick with Detroit, bear in mind — and can reup. As for Montgomery, World Series winners re-sign their own free agents at a disproportionate rate, although he additionally suits in reality nicely with what Texas wishes (a competent innings man in a rotation heavy on damage chance). The Rangers are in it to win it once more in 2024, and a reunion is sensible for each side. This free-agent elegance is a bit of lame and it is going to get a bit of lamer when those 3 best starters come to a decision to go back to their previous stomping grounds.
10. The Astros will substitute Dusty with a well-known face
Brad Ausmus, you might be wanted again in Houston. Hall of Famer Jeff Bagwell, who’s indexed at the Astros’ masthead as a senior consultant to possession and baseball operations, has a noisy voice within the entrance administrative center. He reportedly spearheaded the hassle to signal José Abreu remaining offseason. This offseason, I’m boldly predicting Bagwell will persuade proprietor Jim Crane to rent longtime Astros catcher Brad Ausmus to take over as supervisor following Dusty Baker’s retirement. Ausmus has managerial revel in and he was once teammates with Bagwell from 1997-98 and 2001-05. Bagwell has Crane’s ear and our remaining bold prediction has him the usage of his affect to get his former teammate within the supervisor’s chair.