1. Why are traders apprehensive?
Crude and coal account for nearly half of Colombia’s exports, so Petro’s pledge to halt oil exploration, if carried out, could be a break from a historical past of reliably pro-business administrations. Notes for state oil firm Ecopetrol SA have lagged different emerging-market oil firms since August, when Petro first mentioned he would finish oil exploration. Such insurance policies would come at a time when the nation is having fun with a bonanza from the surge in power costs triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
2. What would a Petro presidency seem like?
Continuing to depend on fossil fuels and ignoring the implications of local weather change could be the “politics of death,” Petro mentioned in a January interview. He mentioned he’ll push to begin phasing out these industries in favor of a tourism-driven economic system. Petro has additionally vowed to reform the central financial institution in order that “productive organizations” acquire a voice in setting financial coverage. More just lately, he mentioned that he’d declare an “economic emergency,” which might permit him to bypass the conventional workings of congress for a 30-day interval. For that to occur, he would want approval from the constitutional court docket, and the decrees which can be handed in the course of the interval might nonetheless be struck down by congress.
3. What explains his attraction?
Petro’s tax-the-rich message has broad attraction in a rustic by which about 40% of the inhabitants lives in poverty. He is well-liked particularly amongst Colombians on low incomes, who have been hit first by the pandemic, and now by a surge in inflation. Food costs jumped by greater than 20% in February from a yr earlier, and the variety of Colombians who aren’t consuming three meals a day has practically tripled since 2019, in line with the nationwide statistics company. Although the economic system is rebounding strongly from the 2020 crash, the roles market continues to be weak and there’s been a rise within the variety of people who find themselves unemployed or trapped within the casual economic system and incomes lower than the minimal wage.
4. How have issues modified after the first elections?
Primaries held on March 13 remodeled Federico “Fico” Gutierrez, the conservative former mayor of Medellin, into the strongest contender to face Petro. Sergio Fajardo, additionally a former Medellin mayor, was elected within the centrist coalition however his major obtained about 2.3 million votes, a distant third in comparison with 4.1 million in Gutierrez’s and 5.8 million in Petro’s. While the candidate from the ruling Democratic Center get together ended his presidential run to again Gutierrez, different candidates who’re nonetheless within the race and didn’t participate in primaries embrace Rodolfo Hernandez, a former mayor of Bucaramanga and building magnate who’s operating as an unbiased with an anti-corruption marketing campaign, and Ingrid Betancourt, an environmentalist who was kidnapped by guerrillas in the course of the 2002 presidential marketing campaign and held captive within the jungle for six years.
5. Who did they choose as operating mates?
Petro doubled down on his give attention to wealth distribution and a inexperienced economic system by selecting as his operating mate Francia Marquez, a 39-year-old Afro-Colombian girl who’s an environmental activist and human rights campaigner. She was the clear favourite after garnering greater than 780,000 votes within the leftist major. But whereas she could appeal to extra girls voters, by having her on his ticket Petro dangers shedding some centrist voters. Federico Gutierrez, adopted the other technique and did select somebody from the middle, in naming Rodrigo Lara Sanchez as his operating mate. He’s a surgeon who was mayor of the town of Neiva in southern Colombia and whose father, Rodrigo Lara Bonilla, was ordered assassinated in 1984 by drug lord Pablo Escobar. A latest ballot carried out by Centro Nacional de Consultoria confirmed Petro persevering with to guide voter intention with 32% in comparison with 23% for Fico Gutierrez and 10% every for Fajardo and Hernandez. Undecided voters are round 15%. Petro has excessive rejection scores and, in a second spherical of voting, loads of Colombians would again virtually anybody else to maintain him out. Four years in the past, he misplaced the runoff in opposition to Ivan Duque, who’s now president. Duque’s disapproval score, nevertheless, is hovering above 70%.
6. Why is the present authorities so unpopular?
Besides the financial hardship that normally performs in opposition to the incumbent, polls additionally present voters are involved about corruption and a surge in crime. Duque was elected pledging a tricky safety coverage, however unlawful armed teams are overrunning the countryside and manufacturing of cocaine rose to new data, fueling chaos. In the legislative elections additionally held March 13, leftist events gained illustration however no group received a majority, so the following president might want to kind alliances to get any reform handed.