It could be argued that the spring and fall in Oklahoma are the most comfy seasons. They are a time of transition and new development or the altering of leaves. Those cool mornings and delightful afternoons change into a every day pattern. But oddly sufficient, with this seasonal change often comes the risk for severe climate. This 12 months, nonetheless, has left some questioning.
Why has there been an absence of severe climate this fall?
Now pay attention, I was hesitant to put in writing this column as a result of I understand I’m operating the danger of jinxing us. But at this level, it’s a must to keep in mind that severe climate equals rain. And rain is one thing we are able to positively use, so I made a decision to take my possibilities.
Many of us know that the spring brings the most lively severe climate to the area. We see the most tornadoes from March to June. Typically, May is the most lively month, averaging 24 tornadoes.
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May 2019 set a file excessive with 105 confirmed tornadoes in Oklahoma. This was simply after I returned from maternity go away with my first youngster, and I keep in mind the lengthy nights and what felt like week after week of severe climate watches and warnings.
While 2019 was extraordinarily busy, you could recall the previous two years being quite quiet. Only 16 tornadoes have been confirmed throughout the state in May 2020, as if we didn’t have sufficient different stuff to fret about that 12 months, and 11 confirmed tornadoes in May 2021. We noticed just about a return to our traditional methods in May of this 12 months with 28 tornadoes.
What shouldn’t be generally mentioned is the “second severe weather season,” as some check with it, in the fall. The common twister rely shouldn’t be as excessive as throughout the spring, however there nonetheless is a slight uptick in the numbers.
In truth, October 2021 set a brand new file excessive variety of tornadoes for the month at 28 tornadoes! That broke the earlier file of 27 in 1999.
This second wave of severe climate is because of the jet stream. The jet stream is made up of bands of robust winds a number of miles above the Earth’s floor that circulation west to east all throughout the globe. And it’s continuously transferring. It dips down south towards the equator throughout the colder months, permitting for cold arctic air to seep in at the floor, and it retreats again north throughout the summer season to deliver up heat climate from the south.
As the jet stream facilities itself throughout Oklahoma, it acts as a conveyor belt of storm techniques. Because it passes over and settles itself throughout the area twice a 12 months, we see one other uptick in severe storms throughout the fall.
So, if it passes by twice, why wouldn’t we see as many tornadoes in October as we do in May?
The reply is moisture and warmth. During April, May and June, we’ve got hotter temperatures with highs averaging close to 80 levels. Our dew factors are a lot greater, that means far more moisture is in the air. This moisture is one key ingredient wanted for severe storms. That is as a result of moisture permits for instability inside the low ranges on the ambiance. This instability is what permits for air parcels to rise and robust thunderstorms to kind.
Now again to the authentic query: What is occurring this 12 months?
“The jet stream hasn’t been in a favorable position to bring storms to our area so far this fall,” stated Nicole McGavock, meteorologist with the Tulsa National Weather Service. “This has resulted in a lack of rain overall, in addition to the lack of severe weather.”
Our subsequent likelihood for any rain comes Monday as one other system sweeps by way of the area. However, with this we’re widespread mild rainfall for a few days quite than a risk for any storms.
Kirsten Lang tells us about her Weather Wednesday: How does the drought have an effect on fall foliage?
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