Sunday, May 19, 2024

What will happen to America if Trump wins again? Experts helped us game it out.


(David Szauder for The Washington Post)
(David Szauder for The Washington Post)

The eventualities are … grim.

Imagine it’s Jan. 20, 2025. Inauguration Day. The president-elect raises his proper hand and begins to recite the oath: I, Donald John Trump, do solemnly swear …

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It’s an anti-Trumper’s nightmare, however it may happen: 47 p.c of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents need Trump to be the nominee in 2024, in accordance to a latest Washington Post-ABC News ballot. And if Trump and Joe Biden are the contenders, Trump narrowly edges Biden, 48 to 46 p.c, amongst registered voters (albeit inside the ballot’s margin of error).

The twice-impeached president’s tenure in workplace was a competition of democratic norm-breaking, culminating within the “big lie” concerning the 2020 election and the Jan. 6 rebel. A second time period would seemingly carry extra of the identical — solely this time Trump would have 4 years of observe beneath his belt.

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To assist game out the results of one other Trump administration, I turned to 21 specialists within the presidency, political science, public administration, the army, intelligence, overseas affairs, economics and civil rights. They sketched chillingly believable chains of potential actions and reactions that may unravel the nation. “I think it would be the end of the republic,” says Princeton University professor Sean Wilentz, one of many historians President Biden consulted in August about America’s teetering democracy. “It would be a kind of overthrow from within. … It would be a coup of the way we’ve always understood America.”

Based on what these specialists described, right here’s a portrait of a democratic crackup in three phases.

Phase 1: Trump seizes management of the federal government …

… And installs tremendous loyalists.

“Among the first things he would do, in the initial hours of his presidency, would be to fire [FBI Director] Christopher Wray and purge the FBI,” says Larry Diamond, senior fellow in international democracy on the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University. Diamond’s analysis has targeted on the plight of democracy in different nations, however these days he’s been pondering and writing about its illnesses in America. Trump “would then set about trying to politicize the FBI, the intelligence agencies and as much of the government as possible,” Diamond continues. “He has complete authority to appoint the senior ranks of the National Security Council. So you could see [retired Lt. Gen.] Michael Flynn” — who was pardoned by Trump after pleading responsible to mendacity to the FBI — “as the national security adviser again, or somebody else who would not represent any of the prudence and restraints and efforts to rein in Trump’s more authoritarian and impulsive instincts.”

FBI administrators serve 10-year phrases throughout presidential phrases to depoliticize the job. Wray, who was appointed by Trump however misplaced his favor, ascended to the submit in 2017 after Trump fired his predecessor, James Comey, partly to undermine the bureau’s investigation into Russian interference within the 2016 election. Comey’s firing brought about an uproar and helped lead to the appointment of particular counsel Robert Mueller to oversee the Russia probe. It’s uncertain firing Wray would trigger a lot backlash from Trump’s allies in Congress and his base, given widespread Republican criticism of the search of Mar-a-Lago, Trump’s Florida residence, to retrieve labeled paperwork. But even if his allies did balk, Trump won’t care; he wouldn’t have to face voters once more. Trump made his personal view of federal legislation enforcement clear at a rally in Wilkes-Barre, Pa., in September: “The FBI and the Justice Department have become vicious monsters controlled by radical-left scoundrels, lawyers and the media who tell them what to do.”

“I think certainly in the power ministries — State, CIA, Defense, Justice — he will look to put true loyalists in,” a senior Pentagon official within the Trump administration, who spoke on the situation of anonymity, instructed me by e-mail. “When I say loyalist, I mean somebody who places their loyalty to him above their oath of office.”

In his first time period, Trump burned via Cabinet members at a excessive fee as a result of they stored failing the loyalty check: Attorney General Jeff Sessions recused himself from the Russia investigation. Secretary of Defense Mark Esper objected to utilizing the army to put down racial justice protests. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson reportedly known as Trump a “f—ing moron.”

Trump supporters chalk up the churn to a chaotic transition that failed to elevate the best expertise to key positions. Now, various outdoors teams shaped by supporters and former Trump administration officers are aiming to repair that downside by figuring out and vetting a government-in-waiting that will be prepared to serve Trump or a Trump-like president immediately. “We just have to be more organized and more purposeful and more strategic, and ensure that we have the right team of people from the very top … and then ensuring that we’ve got a structure in place that allows us to move forward our agenda,” says Brooke Rollins, director of the Domestic Policy Council throughout the Trump administration, now president and CEO of the America First Policy Institute.

If Trump put in loyalists on the FBI and Justice Department — image as the following legal professional common Jeffrey Clark, the Justice official who tried to get the division to assist overturn the 2020 election — then any lingering federal investigations of Trump may very well be dropped. An limitless collection of investigations of Hunter Biden, Liz Cheney, Merrick Garland, Brad Raffensperger, Letitia James and different perceived enemies may start. “This is a guy for whom political revenge is pretty front and center,” says Steven Levitsky, a professor of presidency at Harvard University and co-author of the ebook “How Democracies Die.” “He’s going to come in and use the state to go after his enemies. He has a long list of grievances against people. … He’s going to come in like an authoritarian autocrat on steroids.”

Loyalists would lead different departments as effectively. While in workplace, Trump futilely tweeted on the Federal Reserve, looking for a financial coverage that may profit him politically, and in contrast Chairman Jerome Powell to an “enemy” like China’s Xi Jinping. Powell’s time period is up in 2026. If Trump may get a loyalist via the Senate, rates of interest may very well be manipulated to juice the financial system forward of elections, says Stanford political scientist Francis Fukuyama, creator of “The End of History and the Last Man” and, most not too long ago, “Liberalism and Its Discontents.” Meanwhile, a politicized Bureau of Labor Statistics may lead to month-to-month jobs experiences out of the blue turning into suspect. Or how concerning the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention? Says Fukuyama: “Do you want people who believe in hydroxychloroquine making these decisions?”

He governs with out Senate recommendation and consent.

Democrats hope to retain management of the Senate within the 2022 midterm elections. But even if they do, a Trump victory in 2024 presupposes that he will have sturdy coattails to sweep in down-ballot candidates — and a Trumpified Senate may moderately be anticipated to approve his nominees for high jobs in his administration.

What if, nevertheless, a couple of Republicans balk at nominees who’re simply too past the pale? Or what if the Democrats maintain a majority? Not an issue. By the top of his first time period, Trump had mastered the artwork of governing with out the recommendation and consent of the Senate. In half he was pressured to accomplish that by Democratic obstruction and by the horrible dysfunction of the appointments course of — an already broken nook of our democracy. But Trump, greater than some other president in reminiscence, relied on “acting” Cabinet secretaries and unconfirmed company chiefs who wielded delegated authority. “I sort of like ‘acting,’ ” Trump instructed reporters in 2019. “It gives me more flexibility.”

It can even create chaos. In the final 12 months of Trump’s time period, the Government Accountability Office discovered that his appearing secretary of the Department of Homeland Security and the appearing DHS deputy have been serving unlawfully, calling into query the legitimacy of their coverage choices. But there’s little to cease a president prepared to skirt the principles and run out the clock on his time period. It would take each homes of Congress to arise to him, maybe wielding the ability of the purse as a cudgel, says Max Stier, president and CEO of the Partnership for Public Service, a nonpartisan group targeted on efficient authorities and easy presidential transitions. And what if a gridlocked Congress failed to examine an out-of-control chief government? Stier instructed me: “If the president decides they’re going to install a secretary of defense that isn’t actually confirmed, and Congress isn’t going to try to respond with their powers and try to stop that, I think the reality is that there’s not much that you can do.”

He creates a MAGA civil service.

Installing loyalists on the high of presidency gained’t be sufficient. As for populating the rank and file with those that echo the previous president’s slogan of Make America Great Again, Trump tipped his hand close to the top of his time period, when he signed an government order designed to strip as many as tens of hundreds of federal workers of their civil service protections. The order created a brand new class of workers, dubbed Schedule F, concentrating on these whose jobs arguably embody a level of policymaking. Top officers would have the option to fireplace them virtually at will. President Biden rescinded the order shortly after he was inaugurated. If Trump have been reelected, he’d reinstate the coverage, Axios reported in July.

“They are using the language of good government to justify this, saying that this is the only way that you can discipline poorly performing workers,” Fukuyama says. “But obviously their real intention is to basically politicize the whole civil service. … Because Trump personalizes everything to such an extent, he’s going to be super looking out for revenge and therefore going after, for example, anybody that denied that he won the 2020 election. And this is going to go down to a really low, granular level of American government.”

The method would restore a patronage system that hasn’t existed within the United States since reforms have been enacted within the late nineteenth century, says Stier. “It is fundamentally this notion that the president should be able to decide, not on the basis of merit, but on the basis of political or personal interest, a larger segment of the workforce,” he says.

The nation already has way more politically appointed civil servants — some 4,000 — than most, or all, liberal democracies, Stier explains. We want fewer consigned to that standing, no more, he says. As an instance of the potential affect, Stier notes that Trump’s Office of Management and Budget reportedly recognized almost 90 p.c of its workers as becoming into the brand new class. The OMB is the nerve heart of the federal government, making very important choices on budgets and laws for all of the businesses, from the Environmental Protection Agency to the Internal Revenue Service to the Defense Department to the intelligence group. Political actors from OMB may attain into all of the scattered engine rooms of democracy; different corners of the federal government may endure comparable transformations. (A Democratic invoice to block initiatives like Schedule F is at the moment earlier than the Senate. But even if it passes, it may at all times be repealed.)

Rollins, of the America First Policy Institute, rejects the cost {that a} measure comparable to Schedule F would hurt authorities. “It’s not really about us-versus-them, or ‘they’re the bad guys in the federal government and we’re the good guys going to put in some draconian new measures that allow us to come in and clear everybody out,’ ” she says. “But what I do believe we have to put in place is a system where those who agree with the agenda of more freedom and less government have people working in those positions that also align and agree with that. It’s okay if you don’t, but maybe you should not necessarily be part of a policymaking process.”

Fukuyama maintains it would mark the loss of life knell of experience within the U.S. authorities. “It’s ridiculous when you can’t run a modern government without expertise,” he says, “and they want to try to undo that system because of these right-wing ideas about the ‘deep state’ and the need to root it out.”

Phase 2: Trump deploys the army aggressively at residence, whereas retreating overseas.

Once Trump has centralized energy via cadres of vetted loyalists throughout authorities, what will he do with it? As The Post has beforehand chronicled, he’s already instructed us, in speeches over the previous a number of months, a few of his proposals if he decides to run: Execute drug sellers. Move homeless folks to tent cities. Eliminate the Education Department. Restrict voting to in the future utilizing paper ballots. But there may very well be way more — together with profound shifts in army and overseas coverage.

He makes use of the army to promote his personal political energy.

After Trump led Secretary of Defense Esper, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Mark Milley and different officers throughout Lafayette Square for a photograph op in June 2020 amid racial justice protests, Milley apologized to the general public for collaborating in a staged politicized occasion, enraging Trump. In a second time period, such cautionary voices will be fewer, says Peter Feaver, a professor of political science at Duke University and a number one skilled on civilian-military relations.

“President Trump and his team of loyalists … are going to seek to magnify the president’s already extraordinary power in this area and remove the safeguards … sometimes mockingly called the ‘adults in the room.’ ” Feaver predicts. “Those safeguards don’t prevent the president from doing what he wants to do. They slow the system down from responding to the whim that the president expresses and make sure the president has heard all sides and is willing to own the consequences.”

Some of the ramifications can be small: During a Trump presidency, as an illustration, anticipate to see armored troop carriers, troopers with flashing bayonets and massive missile launchers stream down Pennsylvania Avenue on Veterans Day as Trump lastly will get a army parade. He yearned for one throughout his first time period however was talked out of it by advisers and army officers. It’s “the kind of thing that would probably happen,” Feaver instructed me.

More substantively, Trump — taking over gadgets listed in an aide’s memo close to the top of his time period on why he ought to fireplace Esper — may restore Confederate symbols to army bases, reinstitute an efficient ban on transgender folks serving, and dismantle ongoing variety and inclusion efforts that his Senate allies already lampoon as “woke.” “These would be a series of dumb, dumb moves done for political stunts and Twitter troll point-scoring rather than because this is a sincere effort to improve national security,” Feaver says.

A dramatic and probably lethal breach with custom may come if widespread avenue protests erupt towards Trump and his insurance policies, or if disputes over future elections flip violent. When the homicide of George Floyd sparked demonstrations for racial justice in 2020, Trump needed to name in federal troops. Esper and different nationwide safety officers opposed the transfer and Trump by no means gave the order. But in a second time period with a staff of loyalists, who would inform Trump no? “This time Trump’s got a hack Defense Department and moves to repress,” says Levitsky, the Harvard professor. “We know that repression of protest very often triggers the escalation of protests; it could get very ugly, very quickly, under Trump.”

In such a state of affairs, the response of different parts of the federal authorities and federal legislation enforcement may very well be unpredictable. “What that order does is that it fractures the American federal government, because you give an order like that to fire on American civilians and then maybe some agencies will pick it up and some won’t,” says Timothy Snyder, a historian at Yale University who writes about freedom and tyranny. “There’s a very real possibility that giving an order like that leads not to protest being put down, but it leads to some Americans in uniform firing on other Americans in uniform, with the people on both sides being convinced that they are doing the lawful and correct thing.”

American international management is completed — a lot to Putin’s delight.

As for the use of army energy overseas, Trump principally favored withdrawals throughout his time period (although he did authorize a drone strike to kill a key Iranian commander in Iraq in 2020 and, in accordance to the Associated Press, thought of an invasion of Venezuela in 2017). Trump needed to pull U.S. troops out of South Korea, Germany and Somalia, however critics warned that these strikes can be devastating to international safety and alliances. A second time period would possibly see them come to go, Feaver says: “There’s a higher likelihood that the president would take risky action, but they would be risky actions of retreat, or abandonment of allies … rather than invasions of countries, although downstream they could result in that.”

“One might argue that’s the starting point,” the previous senior Pentagon official instructed me. “Withdraw all U.S. forces and diplomats from Africa, withdraw all U.S. forces from Germany. … And depending on his views of Putin and the conflict in Ukraine, he might just stop the flow of arms, ammunition and material to Kyiv.”

If in 2025 Ukraine nonetheless is dependent upon American assist for survival, halting it would hand Vladimir Putin the victory that he was denied in 2022. Recent work to restore America’s management and skill to coordinate allies towards rogue actors can be undone. “You’ll see a Putin summit,” predicts Aaron David Miller, a senior fellow on the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace who labored within the State Department for Republican and Democratic secretaries of state. NATO can be undermined if not deserted. “Trump’s election,” says Wilentz, the Princeton historian, “means the end of the Western alliance.”

American overseas coverage wouldn’t solely be upended vis-a-vis Russia and NATO. “The overriding interest in the Gulf isn’t going to have anything to do with national security,” Miller says. “It’s going to have to do with the security of the Trump Organization.”

Beyond an issue-by-issue restoration of Trump’s isolationist model of an “America First” overseas coverage, Miller foresees a ruinous blow to the nation’s stature within the eyes of mates and foes. “The Europeans understand that the bloom is off the rose on our capacity to tell and lecture others about what freedom and democracy mean. But never before have they looked into a window where the basic concept of America, the stability of our political system … has been now replaced with one party essentially no longer being willing to respect norms and institutions that are essential to good governance. … Another four years of Donald Trump, and what that could do to faith in government, our institutions, our political stability and our values, would fundamentally open … a more permanent set of questions about America. What does this country stand for now? Is it so deeply divided and polarized that it can’t create a coherent image to the world?”

Intelligence work is harmed.

Up the Potomac River from the Pentagon, at CIA headquarters in Langley, Va., a Trump loyalist ensconced within the director’s chair may harm intelligence efforts on the most elementary ranges, retired Gen. Michael Hayden, who served as CIA director beneath President George W. Bush, instructed me over lunch at a diner. “Seasoned people will leave,” he stated.

Worse, key allies could also be loath to share high secrets and techniques. Hayden recalled having the ability to hop on the telephone with spy chiefs around the globe to complement the intelligence-sharing that occurs via different channels. But after seeing how Trump dealt with high secrets and techniques at Mar-a-Lago, “Do you want to say something secret to the Americans or not?” Hayden stated. “If Trump is in power again, after four years, many of those people won’t ever trust us again.”

In spy work, as in so many professions important to democracy, respect for info and the target seek for reality are very important, Hayden added. He stated Trump’s reelection can be one other signal the nation is “spiraling down” right into a “post-truth” period.

Phase 3: Political violence and democratic collapse? It’s potential.

Trump didn’t trigger the fissures slowly pulling the nation aside. He’s a symptom — however he’s additionally an accelerant, one whose return to the White House may provoke the ultimate breakdown. “Trump has been able to add to the narrative that if democracy doesn’t deliver what I want, then it must be a flaw in the democracy,” says Nicole Bibbins Sedaca, government vice chairman of Freedom House, a nonpartisan democratic advocacy and analysis group, which has recorded a decade-long decline in political and civil rights within the United States that accelerated throughout Trump’s time period, placing us on par with Romania and Panama.

Ideological, racial and ethnic tensions ramp up.

America is already gripped by an unprecedented stage of what political scientists name “pernicious polarization” — stoked and exploited by Trump — and a second Trump time period may make it dangerously worse, says Jennifer McCoy, a political science professor at Georgia State University who co-authored a study of the phenomenon for the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. No different established democracy since not less than 1950 has been so polarized for thus lengthy. In almost half of the handfuls of nations McCoy studied, the following step after pernicious polarization was both “electoral autocracy” — the place votes are forged however don’t essentially confer energy — or outright “democratic collapse.” “It’s extremely worrisome; we’re in uncharted territory,” McCoy instructed me. “If Trump does come back, I think it would severely deepen the crisis that we face.”

Racism, together with violent racism, is probably going to improve. “The most immediate concern of Trump returning to the presidency is it would provide the greatest domestic terrorist threat of our time — violent white supremacist organizations — the ability to rebuild and spread and engage in even more violence and terror,” says Ibram X. Kendi, director of the Center for Antiracist Research at Boston University and creator of “How to Be an Antiracist.” At the identical time, “I don’t think the people who are opposed to what Trump would try to build would just go lightly into the night. The ideological collision, potentially violent collision, political collision would just be unlike anything we’ve seen since the Reconstruction era.”

Trump would virtually definitely return to the difficulty that first constructed his following within the GOP and nonetheless animates the get together: harsh measures to counter unlawful immigration. “America will not be known as the place of the Statue of Liberty but rather as the place where there’s a big wall at the border,” says Vanessa Cárdenas, deputy director of America’s Voice, an immigrant advocacy group. She predicts he’ll discover one other home use for the army: deployment to the border with Mexico. Dehumanizing rhetoric and conspiracy theories about White folks dropping their standing will lead to extra mass shootings concentrating on immigrants, just like the one in El Paso in 2019, she provides. “He will just continue to create these really hard moments, terrifying moments, for communities.”

The bonds that bind the Union loosen.

How Trump will get reelected issues. Is it an in depth however reliable victory the place he loses the favored vote however takes the electoral school, as he did in 2016? Or do the insurrectionist schemes that failed in 2020 — getting state officers to block certification and substitute slates of electors — work in 2024? Perhaps by 2024 such shenanigans will have been made authorized in sure swing states. Ultimately, does the GOP-appointed Supreme Court majority or the gerrymandered House of Representatives decide the winner?

The depth and immediacy of the backlash would differ relying on these circumstances, however severe harm to the democracy could also be inevitable both means if Trump is on the poll, says David Becker, government director of the Center for Election Innovation & Research. “We have a significant percentage of the American electorate right now who have been lied to about the integrity of our elections, who believe that elections … are rigged unless their candidate wins,” he instructed me. “Yet it’s nowhere close to 50 percent of America overall. But if Trump were to win a narrow victory again, I could see [election denial] ideas … infecting a larger percentage of the electorate. And if a large segment of a democracy’s electorate loses confidence in elections, that democracy probably is unsustainable.”

Differences between states may deepen. “You’d be looking at states — Democratic states — which would be taking over Republican arguments about states’ rights and applying them in a different way to try to limit the reach of the federal government,” says Snyder, the Yale historian. “And then you’d also be seeing something which I think has already started to happen as a result of the overturning of Roe v. Wade: You’re going to see people moving. It might be a peaceful process at first. But I think you’re going to see populations sorting themselves out according to where people feel safe and at home, which will mean red states becoming more red and blue states becoming more blue. And that makes some kind of secession or breakup scenario in the medium term more likely.”

The message of prophets of democratic doom can sound over-the-top, however to dismiss it, specialists say, can be naive.

Becker, who with journalist Major Garrett not too long ago revealed “The Big Truth: Upholding Democracy in the Age of the Big Lie,” says he can foresee more and more nightmarish eventualities of democratic dominoes falling within the wake of a Trump reelection. “It would be very hard for him to keep the Union together as it is now,” Becker says. That doesn’t essentially imply civil struggle; wanting armed battle, there are issues “that could weaken the bonds between the states.” An instance we’re already seeing is the governors of Texas and Florida sending migrants to D.C. and Massachusetts, based mostly on “the idea that states are competitors rather than collaborators and partners,” Becker says. Actions like that to rating factors towards blue states on any variety of points will multiply, and blue states will retaliate.

“If Trump won reelection in 2024, how long until California says, ‘Why are we sending [more in taxes] for every federal dollar we’re getting back?’ ” Becker says. “ ‘Why aren’t we requiring the federal government to pay for its use of the naval bases in San Diego and Camp Pendleton and other places?’ … There are a lot of people who would say, ‘Oh, that would never happen.’ [But] what we’ve seen in the last two years we thought would never happen.”

“What if the ties that bind us have become so weak that even that can’t result in the enforcement of federal court rulings?” Becker continues. “A democracy that must by definition rely upon the rule of law … is built upon an agreement that these paper or parchment documents have meaning and we will abide by them. … If someone like Trump … comes into office with a clear contempt for the rule of law, which I think time and again he has demonstrated, at what point does the rule of law evaporate? At what point does that agreement evaporate? At what point do the people who oppose him say, ‘Okay, are we going to fight him with one arm tied behind our back, even though he won’t do that?’ ”

The possibilities of civil struggle improve.

That’s when the potential for violent battle is actual. For these finding out the implications of those developments, “there’s no scenario that worries us more than that the wheels just come off completely from the restraints against violence in the United States,” says Diamond, of Stanford’s Freeman Spogli Institute. “My biggest concern is what citizens would do to citizens, and what citizens might do to legitimately constituted government authority.”

Some of the preconditions for civil struggle — a weakening democracy with hindrances to standard participation and divisions alongside id strains — are brewing within the United States, says Barbara Walter, a political science professor on the University of California at San Diego and the creator of “How Civil Wars Start: And How to Stop Them.” Those dynamics may intensify with Trump or an analogous determine within the White House, she says. It wouldn’t be an 1860s-style civil struggle of states vs. states; if it did come to go, she says, “the type of war we’re going to see is an insurgency. … [Participants] are going to fight a type of guerrilla war, a siege of terror that’s going to be targeted very specifically at certain individuals and certain groups of people, all civilians.”

‘They are preparing for war’: An skilled on civil wars discusses the place political extremists are taking this nation

The election of Trump wouldn’t essentially trigger the varieties of people that stormed the Capitol to stand down, simply because their objective of elevating their chief has been achieved 4 years later. “There’s a scenario by which [their aggression] accelerates because they’ve won and they’re emboldened and they have a president who, with a wink and a nod, encourages them not to allow ‘cheating’ and disloyalty at lower levels of authority,” Diamond says. The already commonplace threats and intimidation of public officers, civic volunteers and civil servants — election staff, academics, health-care staff, librarians — may unfold and strengthen, egged on by Trump, driving extra from their jobs to get replaced by MAGA loyalists.

Activated rage wouldn’t be restricted to Trump supporters. A slim or doubtful Trump victory would encourage large, probably violent protests on the left. “Then the MAGA, violent, January 6th-style extremists would take that as the signal to rise up,” Diamond says.

“This is not going to be something that’s just done by one side; that’s why the risk of political violence is so severe,” Becker says. “Oftentimes we talk about the passage of [anti-democratic] laws and the taking of power as if that’s the finish line. It’s just the starting line of a really violent and vicious race.”

Snyder — whose books embody “On Tyranny: Twenty Lessons From the Twentieth Century” and “The Road to Unfreedom: Russia, Europe, America” — elaborates on what may ensue: “I think there’s a very important miscalculation going on, on the right, which is that ‘if anyone makes a ruckus, it’s going to be us,’ ” he says. “Folks on the right think that chaos is a button that they push. … Another assumption that the right makes which is erroneous is that they’re the only ones who have guns. … They may be carrying more weapons than the other side, but there are so many weapons in the United States, and there are plenty of people who are not on the right who have weapons, and there could be many more very quickly.”

The spiral of violence, response and counter-response would create the form of dysfunction that Trump — not constrained by his secretary of protection and legal professional common — may use to justify invoking the Insurrection Act. Then federal troops would flood the streets of American cities — and this time, not for a parade.

Could it happen right here? Would it be that dangerous? The message of prophets of democratic doom can sound over-the-top — “crackpot, practically,” acknowledges Wilentz, the Princeton historian. But to dismiss it, they are saying, can be naive — and so they urge vigilance and civic engagement to forestall the nightmare from coming true.

A spokesman for Trump didn’t return my emails looking for the previous president’s response to claims that his reelection may wreck democracy. A number of days after Biden’s latest democracy speech in Philadelphia — through which the present president stated, “Donald Trump and the MAGA Republicans represent an extremism that threatens the very foundations of our republic” — Trump responded at a rally: “As you know, this week, Joe Biden came to Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, to give the most vicious, hateful and divisive speech ever delivered by an American president, vilifying 75 million citizens … as threats to democracy and as enemies of the state. … He’s an enemy of the state, you want to know the truth. … We are the ones trying to save our democracy.”

After 4 extra years of nihilistic power like that, the expertise of being American may effectively have been remodeled into one thing unrecognizable. “If Trump wins, I don’t imagine some kind of normal inauguration in ’29,” Snyder says. “If we want a normal inauguration in ’29, we need one in ’25 which involves somebody else.”



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