Can the toast of the fall develop into the main championship (or elevated occasion) debutante of the spring? That’s the query with regards to Tom Kim, winner of two post-Open Championship occasions on the PGA Tour and particular person champion (if there was one) of the Presidents Cup in September.
Kim has captivated just about everybody who encountered him with not solely his buttery strategy photographs and deft quick sport, but an electrical energy that is uncommon in the golf world. His aura, it appears, is practically as singular and nonreplicable as his sport.
He is, with out query, the best youngest star in golf. The 20-year-old (he will not be 21 till the U.S. Open at Los Angeles Country Club) is ranked No. 15 in the world and on the radar of even the very best players in the world.
Kim is a little bit of an oddity, too. In a world the place a lot of the prime young gamers are making their approach with distance and pace, Kim is not that lengthy off the tee. Last 12 months, he did not have sufficient rounds to qualify, but his common drive of 301.1 yards would have been T92 on the PGA Tour, and his membership head pace of 110.09 would have ranked 177th. This is not the statistical profile of anyone ranked in the prime 20 in the world six months faraway from his teenage years.
And but, the factor Kim does best is maybe the misplaced artwork of profitable. He wins rather a lot. In 81 begins in Official World Golf Ranking occasions, Kim has eight wins. That’s an unlimited quantity that, whereas buoyed a bit by taking part in typically on lesser excursions, can’t be instantly dismissed as a result of Kim has additionally received twice in 20 begins on the PGA Tour.
In different phrases, his profitable proportion on the best tour in the world (10%) is truly barely higher than his profitable proportion on each different tour in the world (9.8%).
I lately joked that Tom Kim is going to be the richest golfer who has ever lived, which is enjoyable to consider till you notice it truly won’t be a joke. The PGA Tour floated a document earlier this 12 months that confirmed how Jim Furyk (17 wins, one main) would have made greater than $600 million in earnings — if his profession had began in 2023 — from quite a lot of completely different PGA Tour income streams.
I’m not saying Kim is going to have Furyk’s profession, but if he does, he is in all probability taking place as the richest golfer of all time (on-course earnings solely, in fact).
All of this begs the apparent query of simply how good Kim may be: What is Tom Kim’s ceiling?
Some unbelievable comps from Data Golf will get issues began: Adam Scott in 2001, Jon Rahm in 2015, Joaquin Niemann in 2019, Sungjae Im in 2018, Jason Day in 2008, and Rickie Fowler in 2009. It additionally throws in Kevin Na in 2004 and Ryo Ishikawa in 2012.
Though I’m enamored with Kim’s presence and his sense of the second, I are likely to consider he is a bit overvalued proper now. He exceeded his anticipated win complete throughout the 2021-22 season (two worldwide wins, 0.79 anticipated wins), and he is doing so once more in the 2022-23 season (one win, 0.55 anticipated wins). This is not the whole lot, but when you dig slightly deeper into his profile, it tells a narrative.
Kim’s drawback is going to be ball-striking. He’s an elite iron participant — like, actually nice — but he is so quick off the tee that it is seemingly going to ban him from really contending at the largest occasions. While Kim is extremely constant off the tee — his driving accuracy would have ranked fourth final season if he’d certified — he has hassle gaining strokes on the area due to his size.
This may change. We noticed Matt Fitzpatrick remodel his distance by way of pace coaching and win a U.S. Open due to it. As Kim is presently constituted, although, he is going to should have extraordinary placing weeks to win golf tournaments. (He did, for the file, at each the Wyndham Championship and the Shriners in his two victories.) Of the prime 150 gamers in the world who’ve received at least twice in 2022, Kim is by far the shortest participant of that group, in line with Data Golf.
Is that sustainable? It may be. A very good present-day comp for Kim may be Cam Smith, who is extraordinarily common off the tee and really gained fewer strokes with his driver than Kim did over the final 12 months (largely as a result of he isn’t as correct).
If you pull the numbers again to the prime 150 gamers ever over the final 10 years, we get an excellent higher image. Here are the names that seem like Kim: Jim Furyk, Luke Donald, Zach Johnson, Graeme McDowell and Brandt Snedeker with perhaps a little bit of Jordan Spieth.
This group (exterior of Spieth) is an excellent purpose for anyone like Kim. I do not know if he is going to have the careers that any of them have had, but he definitely may completely have Matt Kuchar’s profession. He may have Zach Johnson’s profession. Can he transcend that? Unless issues change dramatically — and so they may provided that he is 20! — that appears unlikely.
On paper, he could seem like Justin Thomas or Rory McIlroy — generational gamers. But, and to not bum you out as a result of I truly love him, Tom Kim is seemingly not a generational participant.
This has a number of implications for 2023. As the No. 15 participant in the world, Kim is in all probability a bit overvalued. The second, which is associated to the first, is that we should always contemplate our expectations of him. Because he received when he did, and since he crushed at the Presidents Cup, some of us are going into this season believing that Kim can (and even will) win thrice. However, with the elevated occasions schedule he is virtually definitely going to play, that is unlikely.
Kim’s story must be (and is) celebrated. However, can have a significantly better image after this season stuffed with expectations and solely the big-boy occasions of simply what Tom Kim may be on the PGA Tour.