Since 2015 — when the NFL moved extra-point makes an attempt again from what was primarily a 20-yard area aim to a harder 33-yard try — 15 p.c of common season video games have ended with a scoring margin of precisely three factors. That may sound small, but it surely represents the most frequent final result by a major quantity. Nine p.c of video games completed with a differential of seven factors, and 7 p.c of video games had been determined by six. Together, these margins have accounted for practically a 3rd of all video games.
Of additional curiosity to sports activities bettors is how typically explicit point spreads ended precisely on the quantity: with a three-point favourite successful by three factors, for instance. The push fee for a recreation with a point spread of 3 is 9 p.c; not surprisingly, that’s the very best push fee for any point spread aside from 14, which has lower than one-tenth the pattern dimension. (In different phrases, far fewer video games begin with a point spread of 14.)
This kind of information is essential to figuring out line worth within the NFL, as a result of it helps you identify the price of buying an additional half point on a wager — which may flip a push right into a win. (Sportsbooks permit bettors to “buy a half-point” — paying worse odds for the possibility to maneuver a point spread from -3 to -2½, from +7 to +7½, and so forth.)
If this sounds complicated, don’t fear: Here’s a fast primer how you need to method a number of key numbers on the point spread. (Sportsbooks, of course, additionally supply odds on each quarter, each half and so forth; these guidelines don’t apply to these smaller-scale time frames.)
How to play a point spread of 3 or 7
If the point spread is three, you want both to play the favourite at -2½ or the underdog at +3½ as a result of each choices provide the profit of turning a push right into a win within the occasion of a three-point remaining margin. (For freshmen: Assume the Philadelphia Eagles are favored by three factors in opposition to the Washington Commanders and win the sport, 27-24. Underdog bettors who took the Commanders would win if that they had made the wager at +3½ as a result of the ultimate margin was three factors; Eagles backers who had Philadelphia at -2½ would additionally win. Anyone who had a three-point spread would push, which means the stake can be returned with no revenue or loss.)
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Ideally, you can discover a rogue or stale line of -2½ or +3½ at -110 odds (wager $110 to win $100), providing you with an edge over the home. Here’s why. The true worth of a -2½ or +3½ line when the consensus line is ±3 -110 is -130. (Avert your eyes if you happen to hate math: That quantity is derived by factoring within the unique implied chance at -110, 52.4 p.c, and including half the push frequency.) Thus, it turns into worthwhile to maneuver off the three-point spread by enjoying the favourite at -2½ or the underdog at +3½ if the worth is best than -130.
Point spreads of 7 ought to be performed in a similar way. If you progress off a 7-point spread at -110 odds, you want to discover both the favourite at -6½ or the underdog at +7½ at a value of -124 or higher. This additionally illustrates that not all half factors are created equal; the half-point adjustment on a 3-point spread has larger worth. Why? It all is determined by how typically you count on the ultimate margin to land precisely on the quantity in query. The larger the likelihood of a selected final result, the extra useful the additional half-point turns into.
How to play a point spread of 4 or 5
Games with point spreads of -4, -4½, -5 and -5½ have ended with a rating differential of precisely 5 or 6 simply 13 occasions up to now eight seasons. In different phrases, you’re most likely higher off going with an alternate line relatively than one of these point spreads. The profit of an alternate line is buying a extra profitable value.
Let’s return to an actual world instance. If the road for the Buffalo Bills in a recreation in opposition to the Miami Dolphins is -4 -110 and also you can discover an alternate spread of -6½ at +120 odds or higher — which means a revenue of no less than $120 for each $100 wagered — that’s a extra worthwhile play. The probabilities of the Bills successful by 5 or 6 — a win at -4½ however a loss at -6½ — aren’t excessive sufficient to cancel out the larger winnings in the event that they cowl the bigger spread. If you discover a -5 or -5½ -110 spread as the principle or consensus line, then you need to need an alternate line of -6½ at costs of +109 and +104, respectively.
If the underdog is getting 4, 4½, 5 or 5½ factors, you can often stick to these, figuring out the sport is extra more likely to finish with a differential of three factors than it’s with six.
How to play a point spread of 6
If you’re debating a line of -6 -110 and can’t discover -6½ at -102 odds or higher, check out the moneyline wager, which requires your chosen crew solely to win. Teams with a closing point spread of -6 have gone 60-30-1 straight up since 2015, equating to a 66.5 win fee. The break even value for such a win fee is -200, so a moneyline wager at lower than -200 odds could possibly be interesting.
Interested in taking the underdog at +6 -110? Then you most likely wish to examine the costs for +7½. If you discover an oddsmaker providing that alternate spread at -150 odds or higher, it’s value contemplating.
There are different point spreads, of course. Week 2 of this season featured a couple of favorites of 9 or extra factors, which provides a degree of complexity to your decision-making. Those are large numbers, and you must make certain the crew strengths are as lopsided as they give the impression of being on paper. If not, in taking the favourite you’re gifting away two key numbers, three and 7, plus the likelihood of a 3rd in a 10-point margin.
You additionally may avoid these conditions — nobody says you must wager each recreation — and concentrate on video games wherein you imagine you achieve a bonus by exploiting the most frequent key numbers of three and 7. In common, the takeaway ought to be this: Always be sure to have a key quantity coated in your favor, often by grabbing the additional point or half-point that will convert a loss or a push right into a win.
Illustration by Lily LK for The Washington Post.