Gov. Kevin Stitt was anticipated to coast to a simple victory in the November election in deep-red Oklahoma, however the race has tightened after the overturn of Roe v. Wade and assaults from darkish cash teams.
While the political local weather in Oklahoma nonetheless favors Stitt, the newest polling from Oklahoma City-based agency Amber Integrated exhibits him with solely a three-point lead over his Democratic challenger and present State Superintendent Joy Hofmeister.
Another ballot by SoonerPoll exhibits Stitt with solely a one-point lead over Hofmeister.
RealClearPolitics and Cook Political Report have moved the Oklahoma governor’s race from “Safe R” to “Likely R,” a downgrade for Republicans, citing the immense quantities of out of doors assaults Stitt is enduring and up to date polling.
If Hofmeister’s marketing campaign continues to achieve floor and he or she pulls off an upset win in November, she could be the first Democrat to win statewide workplace in Oklahoma since 2006.
Abortion ban backlash
Recent polls present extra girls voters have shifted to assist Hofmeister following the Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization United States Supreme Court resolution this summer time that overturned Roe v. Wade.
According to Amber Integrated, 54% of ladies say they plan on supporting Hofmeister. Comparatively, again in June earlier than the Dobbs resolution, solely 32% of women mentioned they’d vote for Hofmeister and 43% mentioned they supported Stitt.
“I think the shift we’re seeing is a post-Dobbs suburban Republican woman taking a second look at who they’re going to support,” mentioned Pat McFerron, a Republican marketing consultant based mostly in Oklahoma City.
Hofmeister has described herself as pro-life, although she believes a lady ought to have the proper to decide on whether or not to get an abortion. But girls are nonetheless flocking to assist her as a substitute for Stitt, who signed a near-total ban on abortion in Oklahoma with no exceptions for rape or incest.
“If you listen to Joy talk about abortion, it is not an extreme position she takes,” mentioned Joe Hartman, a Democratic marketing consultant and co-founder of the Oklahoma City based mostly agency Skyfire Media. “Her stances on abortion, that I’ve heard, is what I think most women, if not voters in Oklahoma (believe) as well.”
Hofmeister has mentioned she opposes Stitt’s “extreme abortion ban,” which is unpopular amongst even Republican voters, based on one ballot.
A ballot by Amber Integrated in August confirmed that 62% of probably Republican voters consider abortion needs to be authorized in instances of rape, incest and to avoid wasting the mom’s life, whereas solely 19% believed abortion needs to be banned completely.
Outside teams pour tens of millions into assault advertisements
A brand new ad from The Oklahoma Project, an anti-Stitt Super PAC largely funded by darkish cash, bashes Stitt for not signing an anti-corruption pledge handed round by one other group primarily funded by dark money referred to as Clean Up Oklahoma.
Hofmeister and teams funded by darkish cash have tried to color Stitt as corrupt after a scandal over Swadley’s Foggy Bottom Restaurant’s contract to function eating places at state parks that value the taxpayers millions. Attacks on Stitt additionally adopted a joint investigation between The Frontier and Oklahoma Watch earlier this 12 months that exposed the state fumbled tens of millions of {dollars} in federal COVID-19 reduction funds meant for training, resulting in a poor review from federal auditors.
“Oklahomans continue to have an unfavorable opinion of Governor Stitt and stand against his failed leadership and self-dealing,” Hofmeister mentioned in an announcement.
The television ad attacks on Stitt have value greater than $10 million based on spending information reviewed by The Frontier. This previous week, the outdoors teams outspent Stitt on-air by a virtually 4-1 margin, the Cook Political Report found.
Polling exhibits the message might resonate with voters.
A ballot launched Wednesday by Amber Integrated and news station KOCO discovered that 60% of voters consider there is some corruption in state authorities and 26% consider corruption is rampant.
“That’s what I hear from Oklahomans when I’m traveling around the state, (voters) are tired of the extremes and they are tired of the division that Governor Stitt has brought and it results in chaos,” Hofmeister mentioned in an interview in August.
Stitt’s marketing campaign focuses on the financial system and Joe Biden
While the Hofmeister marketing campaign positive aspects momentum, Stitt is protecting his message centered on the financial system and is campaigning towards President Joe Biden, who is broadly unpopular in Oklahoma, polling exhibits.
“President Biden’s inflation crisis is out of control,” Stitt mentioned at a press convention on Tuesday calling for the state Legislature to ship inflation reduction to Oklahomans. “And the Democrats in Washington are showing no signs of slowing down their spending spree. The bottom line, everything is more expensive and Oklahomans are hurting. I promised Oklahomans that I would always stand up and fight for the taxpayer. And that’s what I am going to continue to do.”
Stitt released a new campaign ad this month attacking Biden. While the message will enchantment to Stitt’s Republican base, he nonetheless must rally the 7% of undecided voters, the majority of which are independents or Republicans.
Polling exhibits that 47% of Republicans say the financial system and inflation motivates them to get to the polls, in comparison with solely 11% of Democrats and 23% of independents.
“Kevin Stitt is going to win this race because Oklahomans know Kevin Stitt is fighting for them, cutting taxes, balancing the budget, and funding pay increases to every teacher,” Donelle Harder, Stitt’s marketing campaign supervisor, mentioned in an announcement.
Meanwhile, Democrat and impartial voters label training as their greatest precedence, polling exhibits. Hofmeister believes the unpopularity of college vouchers in rural Oklahoma and amongst public faculty proponents will likely be a profitable message for her, she mentioned in an interview.
Despite polling, Hofmeister nonetheless has an uphill climb. And the Stitt marketing campaign has but to go adverse or try and outline her as a candidate.
“Right now, the race is a referendum on Stitt; it’s not a choice yet,” McFerron mentioned.
Stitt’s marketing campaign mentioned in an announcement that Hofmeister “supports tax increases, shutting down our public schools” and mentioned she “marches in lock-step with Joe Biden’s liberal agenda that’s threatening Oklahoma.”
It’s an indication of what technique Stitt might use in the weeks main as much as election day.
While Hofmeister is a former Republican and describes herself as “aggressively moderate,” having a “D” by her identify mechanically places her at drawback in conservative Oklahoma.
Because of this, linking Hofmeister to Biden might assist Stitt win votes, McFerron mentioned.
“There is one trump card in this and that’s Joe Biden,” McFerron mentioned. “Voters who go into the voting booth thinking about Joe Biden, they’re going to vote for Kevin Stitt. They’re going to vote Republican.”
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