It occurred.
It lastly occurred.
I’ve tracked each FBS recreation over the previous two seasons — 1,733 and counting — throughout 5 statistics to see how usually they correlate with profitable: speeding yards, passing yards, scoring first, main at halftime, and profitable turnovers. Those 1,733 video games have taught us that some correlate greater than others: a halftime lead places you on the path to victory round 80 p.c of the time, whereas out-passing your opponent is nearer to a coin flip (60 p.c) than a certainty.Â
But one system has confirmed to be completely iron-clad, as long as your group may pull it off.Â
Entering Saturday, groups that received all 5 classes (what we name a Quinfecta round these components) have been 274-0, and the overwhelming majority of these 274 victories weren’t shut. The common Quinfecta margin was round 30 factors.
Until final week.
On Saturday night time in Lubbock, Texas Tech pulled off the beforehand inconceivable.
The Red Raiders trailed 14-0 after one quarter, and 24-23 at the half. They have been out-rushed, 210-163. They have been out-passed, 462-436. They misplaced turnovers, 2-1. Yet they received the recreation anyway, the first of 285 groups in an identical scenario to take action over this season and final.
What’s extra, this is not a case of Texas Tech shedding the field rating in the combination however profitable on a down-to-down foundation. Oklahoma averaged 4.7 yards per carry to Tech’s 3.6. Oklahoma averaged 11 yards on its 42 passes, Tech averaged 8.5 yards on its 51 passes. Texas Tech even misplaced factors off turnovers, 10-7.Â
Texas Tech trailed 24-6 with 6:25 to play in the first half, however pulled inside 24-23 by halftime by mounting a 75-yard landing drive, nabbing an interception, turning that right into a 29-yard landing drive, forcing a three-and-out, after which piecing collectively a 77-yard discipline aim drive in the half’s remaining 48 seconds.
Texas Tech managed to tug off its explicit trick largely as a result of its protection yielded 79 yards on two second-half drives that finally resulted in turnovers on downs. The Red Raiders grabbed leads of 30-24, 38-31 and 45-38, however confronted attainable defeat when Tyler Shough fired an interception (Tech’s second turnover of the recreation) at his personal 31 with 5:16 remaining.
Tim DeRuyter’s protection didn’t allow a primary down, forcing a 42-yard discipline aim. The Red Raiders then mounted a drive that was profitable however not too profitable, stalling out at the OU 25 to arrange Trey Wolff’s overtime-forcing discipline aim with three seconds to play. Remember, if Texas Tech had thrown for 27 extra yards, they’d have received the passing statistic and thus misplaced this explicit achievement.
Both groups moved solely eight yards in extra time, however Oklahoma missed its discipline objectives whereas Texas Tech made theirs, thereby giving the Red Raiders a 51-48 victory during which they failed to attain first, trailed at halftime, have been out-rushed, out-passed, and misplaced turnovers.Â
The win accomplished Joey McGuire’s first common season, one during which Texas Tech defeated Texas and Oklahoma in the identical season for the first time in class historical past.
And that win was simply as improbable, measured by one other metric.
In that recreation, Texas Tech trailed 31-17 deep into the third quarter and was out-rushed (151-148), however received as a result of it went 2-0 in turnovers and went an improbable 6-of-8 on fourth down, which allowed the Red Raiders to have a gargantuan 100-60 benefit in whole performs.Â
The Oklahoma win completes an ideal circle for Texas Tech, at the least because it has to do with this column. AD Kirby Hocutt dismissed Matt Wells, with a 5-3 document, after dropping a game to Kansas State it had no business losing.Â
So, what does this imply for each program shifting ahead?Â
For Oklahoma, is that this a case of the program getting its lumps out of the means now solely to return again larger, stronger, sooner, wiser in its second yr underneath its new employees, or is that this recreation proof that Brent Venables is a Hall of Fame defensive coordinator however may not be head coach materials?
For Texas Tech, does the win enable the program to whistle previous the graveyard of what, based on the numbers, in all probability ought to’ve been a 5-7 season? Or is that this recreation plus the Texas recreation show that McGuire has an immeasurable quantity of The Will To Win?
That’s for every program to resolve, however chances are high it could be one other 1,733 video games earlier than we see one other Texas Tech 51, Oklahoma 48.
Week 13 Numbers:
— Rush for extra yards: 44-19
— Pass for extra yards: 35-28
— Score first: 36-27
— Lead at halftime: 42-18
— Win turnovers: 39-10
— Win all 5: 10-1
Year to Date:
— Rush for extra yards: 636-202 (.759)
— Pass for extra yards: 504-331 (.604)
— Score first: 572-267 (.681)
— Lead at halftime: 634-161 (.797)
— Win turnovers: 470-169 (.736)
— Win all 5: 138-1 (.993)
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