Texas Rangers: Clayton Kershaw will be target for homecoming

DALLAS — The Texas Rangers have a various checklist of assorted inquiries to reply because the 2022-2023 offseason will get underway in earnest this week. They answered essentially the most pertinent one whereas the playoffs had been nonetheless going by hiring three-time World Series Champion supervisor Bruce Bochy after the dismissal of Chris Woodward in the midst of the season. 

Texas could fill one other government place quickly, as rumors have began circulating surrounding former Kansas City Royals’ normal supervisor Dayton Moore having conversations with Chris Young. A wedding there may present first-time GM Young with an skilled voice to behave as a sounding board. 

However, neither of these issues deal with the on-field product. When speaking in regards to the precise baseball crew going ahead for the Rangers, the query of pitching should be on the forefront. 

For an possession group that constructed a model new stadium to assist appeal to free agent pitching by making the scale far much less hitter pleasant, the 2022 Rangers completed the season with the eighth highest runs allowed per sport, the ninth highest crew earned run common, the seventh highest WHIP, and the 4th highest walks per 9 innings in the whole league. 

Even whereas anchored by a reasonably shocking full and good season from Martin Perez (32 begins, 12-8, 2.89 ERA, 196.1 innings pitched) and first rate performances from free agent signee Jon Gray when he was wholesome, the general rotation fashioned by Texas wasn’t precisely something that put concern into the hearts of opposing lineups.

Where Texas opened their wallets final yr for massive hitters Corey Seager and Marcus Semien, they’re anticipated to do the identical this yr for free agent beginning pitching. This yr’s free agent class boasts some excellent names, however one of many larger targets that the Rangers are anticipated to go after is the annual pursuit of Highland Park native Clayton Kershaw.

Here’s the maybe $20-25 million query: Should they?

Kershaw – a three-time Cy Young winner – isn’t essentially the most feared pitcher on the planet anymore, largely resulting from recurring well being points in recent times. In 2022, the 34-year outdated lefty was plagued with again and hip accidents, hitting the IL twice early within the yr as a member of the Los Angeles Dodgers. He ended 2021 on the IL with elbow and forearm points. Even within the pandemic–shortened 2020 season, Kershaw was on the IL twice with again issues. 

This brings to gentle the most important disadvantage that Texas would face in bringing Kershaw residence – reliability. Already seeing the problems of recurring accidents with Gray within the rotation, would Texas wish to need to cope with two injury-plagued starters? 

The Rangers’ farm system options some prospects on the cusp – Cole Ragans, Owen White, Cole Winn and a number of other others (with out believing that high draft picks Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter will be able to contribute on the massive league stage subsequent season) – however the remainder of the expertise pool confirmed themselves to not be prepared, thus exposing the dearth of beginning pitching depth. 

Kershaw’s seemingly going to command a hefty price ticket, so ought to Texas sink that a lot cash into what may successfully be a half-season pitcher?

Here’s the opposite aspect of that coin – when Kershaw was making begins, he was nonetheless extremely good. When you set him compared with the 2022 Texas Rangers workers, he was distinctive. In 22 begins in 2022, Kershaw put up a 12-3 report with a 2.28 ERA in 126.1 innings pitched with practically a 6-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio and nearly 10 strikeouts per 9 innings. 

Kershaw wasn’t fairly pretty much as good in 2021, however once more, compared to what the Rangers had been placing on the market, he was miles higher. The factor that Kershaw is, and what Texas actually wants extra of, is a command pitcher. Kershaw walked fewer than 5% of batters confronted this season, and although his fastball isn’t lighting up radar weapons, he’s nonetheless a man who misses bats. 

If you pair Kershaw with a light-weight contact pitcher like Perez – who Texas additionally must decide on and who is not any assure to repeat his profession yr All-Star efficiency – that might be a fairly potent 1-2. However, even when they’ll lastly lure Kershaw residence and re-sign Perez, that may solely be the start of what Texas wants.

What about that aforementioned price ticket? The Dodgers paid Kershaw $17 million for 22 video games. You can assume across the similar variety of video games, if not fewer, with Kershaw getting older by one other yr. Put into play that Kershaw nonetheless has been an efficient pitcher when wholesome and also you’re in all probability round $20 million as a place to begin to pry Kershaw away from being a profession Dodger. 

They say there’s no such factor as a one-year contract. When you have a look at the projected payroll of the 2023 Rangers – simply over $117 million dedicated for the yr, according to Spotrac – it will seem that Young and the Rangers’ entrance workplace has some cash to play with. 

Factoring in that, even when they had been to land the longer term Hall of Famer Kershaw, Texas in all probability nonetheless wants one other, much more dependable beginning pitching arm, would possibly pony as much as re-sign Perez, nonetheless has wants for beginning pitching depth all through the rotation, and has to contemplate choices for their bullpen and lineup, and ultimately the maths will get dicey. 

When you’re taking all of that into consideration, together with the probability of over-paying to outbid Los Angeles (and anybody else), may you commit probably $25-30 million for ONE yr of Clayton Kershaw? It’s a query that the Rangers ask themselves each offseason and is one that might make or break the 2023 season.

Do you suppose that that is the yr that Clayton Kershaw lastly comes residence? Share your predictions with Matt on Twitter @FisherWritesMLB.