Derrick Henry, RB, Titans
ADP: 4th at RB | Me: tenth
Let’s go forward and kick issues off with the participant for whom the largest issues are predicted. I advised of us to avoid Henry final yr, and also you’re darn proper I’m doing it once more. Of course, my powers of prognostication weren’t wanting so scorching when the Tennessee again was main all operating backs in fantasy scoring although eight weeks, and by a substantial margin at that. However, he then suffered a foot damage that required surgical procedure, maintaining him out of motion till the NFL playoffs.
Foot accidents are regarding, however this one may very well be thought-about a fluke, particularly on condition that Henry had solely missed two video games over his earlier 5 seasons. But one thing appeared prefer it needed to give as a result of the Titans have been giving him an outrageous workload of 27.4 carries per sport, plus 2.3 receptions, for nearly 30 touches each week. To spin this ahead, Tennessee is inviting an analogous consequence if it tries the identical tactic, significantly as a result of Henry shall be 29 by the tip of the season. That’s positively historic for a operating again, and even for somebody of his outstanding dimension, he has racked up lots of put on and tear with 1,495 profession touches, fourth most amongst gamers at the moment on NFL rosters.
If the Titans cut back Henry’s touches, it might preserve him spry, however his numbers would endure as a result of he has change into more and more reliant on quantity. His 4.3 yards per carry final season was simply his lowest over the previous 4 seasons, and his charge of damaged tackles has plummeted over the identical span.
Then there’s the extremely questionable skill of the Titans’ offense to ship Henry a gradual stream of simple landing alternatives. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill confirmed his personal indicators of decline final season and is now 34, and with the departure of large receiver A.J. Brown, Tannehill is throwing to one of many league’s least-imposing receiving corps behind one of many lowest-rated offensive traces.
Add all of it up, and I see manner too many crimson flags to wish to spend a first-round choose on Henry. That nearly definitely means you gained’t be getting him for those who comply with my recommendation, however you may be getting an opportunity to make a draft-day guess on somebody with a extra palatable risk-reward profile.
ADP: sixth at WR | Me: eleventh
During a 2021 marketing campaign in which he completed second solely to Cooper Kupp in WR fantasy factors per sport, Samuel gathered some outstanding numbers. One of which was his eight speeding touchdowns, an NFL record for his place, on simply 59 carries. Another unimaginable stat was his 18.2 yards per reception, the most amongst all large receivers with no less than 25 catches, regardless of his common depth of goal being simply 8.6 yards, which ranked 83rd in that group.
It’s all very spectacular — however the general efficiency can be primed for regression. The speeding touchdowns are nearly assured to drop, if solely as a result of Samuel reportedly desires for use much less in that function and San Francisco ought to be more healthy this season at operating again and thus much less in want of his companies on the bottom. In addition, new beginning quarterback Trey Lance is a significant speeding menace in his personal proper and is more likely to preserve a few of these finish zone visits to himself.
Samuel might stay the NFL’s yards-after-catch king, on condition that he has led the league in YAC per reception in every of the previous two years and was second in 2019. Lance looms once more, although, as a possible limiting issue as a result of he tasks to be far more of a deep-ball thrower — which ought to profit 49ers wideout Brandon Aiyuk in explicit — than predecessor Jimmy Garoppolo. With Lance wanting to make use of his legs to increase performs and provides Aiyuk time to get open downfield, or to tuck the ball and run with it, Samuel may very well be lacking the nice outdated days when Garoppolo needed to get the ball out early and infrequently on quick-hitting routes.
Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers
ADP: ninth at QB | Me: thirteenth
Rodgers will flip 39 this season, however Tom Brady has proven that’s possibly not an enormous deal and Rodgers might nonetheless be driving a late-career enhance from the psychedelic powers of ayahuasca. At age 38, the Green Bay celebrity was nonetheless adequate to win his second straight NFL MVP award and end sixth at his place in fantasy factors.
Of higher concern is the lack of Davante Adams, who was traded to the Las Vegas Raiders this spring after ending in the highest six in large receiver fantasy factors per sport in every of the previous 4 years. Rodgers helped Adams attain these heights, however the reverse was nearly definitely the case as properly. In explicit, it’s laborious to ascertain Rodgers having nearly as good a rapport with any of this yr’s Packers receivers close to the aim line; Adams scored 12 of his 29 touchdowns over the previous two seasons from lower than six yards out.
Green Bay’s new No. 1 wideout, by Rodgers’s own acclaim, is Allen Lazard, a former undrafted free agent who established profession highs final season with 40 catches for 513 yards. Other veterans available embrace the mercurial Sammy Watkins and a past-his-prime Randall Cobb, with rookies Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs tasked with finally forming the mind meld their QB calls for. Doubs has seemed surprisingly good in coaching camp and preseason motion, however the actual energy of the Packers this yr might be at operating again, given the estimable presence of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon. It would make all of the sense in the world for Green Bay to attempt to wring as a lot manufacturing as potential from its backfield, on the expense of its talent-deficient passing assault.
ADP: thirteenth general | Me: twenty second
It’s not that I’ve pushed Kelce down my tight finish record, though I do understand him as holding not more than a razor-thin margin over second-ranked Mark Andrews. It’s simply that I’ve him as far nearer to a third-round worth than the near-first-rounder his ADP suggests. Thus, as with Henry, I gained’t be getting a lot of the Kansas City stalwart in my drafts.
The Henry comparisons proceed with Kelce’s age and declining effectivity. Kelce turns 33 in October and is ready to change into the oldest non-quarterback with a top-15 ADP since Randy Moss in 2010 (per Sharp Football Analysis). Last season, he posted his lowest yards per reception and yards per route run since 2015, and he had a significant tumble from 2020 in fantasy factors over expectation (66.3 to 41.3, per RotoViz).
Of course, even on a potential profession downslope, Kelce might be able to make up for it this season due to Tyreek Hill’s absence. The big-play large receiver was traded to Miami and leaves behind 159 targets, a few of which could moderately be anticipated to get funneled in Kelce’s path. On the opposite hand, the Chiefs introduced in a number of receivers, together with veterans JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling and promising rookie Skyy Moore, and the group may very well be seeking to unfold the passing-game wealth.
Defenses appeared in 2021 to have discovered a few of Coach Andy Reid’s tendencies, so dealing Hill might have been step one in a schematic overhaul that is perhaps to Kelce’s profit. Then once more, it may not. The takeaway for me is that there’s an excessive amount of uncertainty right here to really feel that Kelce is an particularly protected choose, and if he’s not locked into the quantity his drafters predict, there isn’t lots of upside at this level in different features of his sport.