South Texas no longer a certain Democratic stronghold after some GOP gains

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McALLEN — Democrats minimized their losses Tuesday in South Texas regardless of an unprecedented Republican offensive within the long-blue area. But gone are the times of unquestioned Democratic management there.

South Texas weathered some of its best races but this cycle, with thousands and thousands of {dollars} pouring in from across the state and nation. In the top, Republicans managed to flip solely certainly one of three congressional seats they focused, successful what was broadly seen as probably the most gettable one. The social gathering additionally gained one Texas House district within the area — and held on to two others that Democrats had historically managed.

Those gains had been helped by redistricting, however they nonetheless give the GOP a new foothold within the area because it seems to be to future elections.

“Success isn’t always winning every single race,” mentioned Dave Carney, Gov. Greg Abbott’s chief strategist, who was among the many Republicans who floated a potential sweep within the three congressional races. “It’s showing in hundreds of races that we actually have a race.”

Republicans planted their flag in South Texas in hopes of peeling off Hispanic voters who’ve historically leaned Democratic. The GOP believed a record number of migrants apprehended along the Texas-Mexico border, mixed with economic concerns as inflation persists, would function an accelerant for Republican progress within the area.

But Abbott didn’t meet his objective of successful a majority with Hispanic voters statewide, in response to one exit poll that confirmed he garnered 40% of their assist. Carney mentioned the marketing campaign was “still calculating actual vote, which will take a little bit of time” as voter information turns into out there within the coming days.

And Democrats had been fast to downplay the GOP gains in South Texas, arguing they had been made potential by the Republican-controlled redistricting process last year. Texas Democratic Party Chair Gilberto Hinojosa mentioned it was “complete bullshit” to conclude Republicans’ fifteenth Congressional District victory meant they had been successful new assist amongst Hispanic voters, saying it was redrawn to be “less Hispanic and more white.”

“There was no red wave in South Texas,” Hinojosa mentioned in a assertion. “There wasn’t even a red ripple.”

The district boundaries modified this yr from an space that President Joe Biden carried by 1.9 factors to 1 that former President Donald Trump would have gained by 2.8 factors. District voters had been 74% Hispanic each earlier than and after redistricting.

Republicans mentioned their candidates outperformed the partisan make-up of the brand new legislative and congressional districts. For instance, Republican Janie Lopez gained Texas House District 37 by 4 factors, a 6-point swing from how Biden would have carried out there in 2020 if the brand new political boundaries had been in place.

“If Democrats think these wins are based on redistricting and political whim, they can continue to take voters for granted and watch Republicans to win,” mentioned Aaron De Leon, vp of the Associated Republicans of Texas, which was a main participant in state legislative races in South Texas.

While Republicans could not have conjured a crimson wave this yr, they didn’t lose floor on the high of the ticket within the Rio Grande Valley, the intently watched four-county space on the backside of South Texas. Abbott’s deficit matched that of Trump, who additionally misplaced by 15 factors within the Rio Grande Valley in 2020. Four years in the past, Democrat Beto O’Rourke carried the counties by greater than double that — 35 factors — in an unsuccessful U.S. Senate run. And in 2016, Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton gained the Valley by 39 factors.

ProjectRedTX mentioned Wednesday it helped Republicans win a minimum of 43 county-level seats in South Texas, creating a new “farm team” for the area.

And in congressional races, Democrats’ margins of victory shrank. Although Democratic U.S. Rep. Vicente Gonzalez gained within the thirty fourth Congressional District in opposition to fellow incumbent Rep. Mayra Flores, a Republican, his 8-point victory was far lower than what Democrats pulled off in previous cycles. Had the brand new political maps utilized in Tuesday’s election been in place two years in the past, Biden would have gained the district by 15.5 factors. Gonzalez gained Cameron County, probably the most populous a part of the district, by 3.55 factors. Four years in the past, Democratic Rep. Filemon Vela gained the county by roughly 30 factors.

Democrats argue redistricting made it more durable to win the fifteenth Congressional District by including extra conservative areas to the north. But even within the Democratic stronghold of Hidalgo County, Republican candidate Monica De La Cruz bought extra of the vote than in 2020. She misplaced the county by 12.6 factors on Tuesday. Last cycle, she misplaced by over 20 factors. De La Cruz wound up successful the district general.

Jose Borjon, a former chief of employees for Gonzalez who suggested him on this yr’s marketing campaign, acknowledged that “we saw that there’s definitely some people that have gravitated to the Republican Party,” although he highlighted that the counties alongside the Texas-Mexico border remained solidly Democratic.

In the twenty eighth Congressional District, Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar secured a 10th term. He was probably the most seasoned of the GOP targets, a fixture in Laredo who has seen political battle earlier than. But this cycle was the most important stress take a look at for him but: The FBI raided his residence in January, weeks earlier than a rematch with progressive main challenger Jessica Cisneros, after which they went to a runoff when the leak of the U.S. Supreme Court’s reversal of Roe v. Wade forged a harsh highlight on his file as an anti-abortion Democrat.

Democrats like Cuellar and Gonzalez had hoped that their victories could be decisive sufficient to ship Republicans packing from South Texas. But the GOP vowed Wednesday to maintain aggressively contesting the area.

Flores, the Republican whom Gonzalez beat, captured the thirty fourth District in a June particular election that attracted nationwide consideration. But that was below the district’s earlier, extra aggressive boundaries, and Democrats opted to not critically spend money on the race below the belief she could be successfully renting the seat till November.

After lamenting Tuesday evening that a “red wave” had not come to fruition, Flores was already wanting ahead to the subsequent election Wednesday morning, merely tweeting “2024.”

Matt Rinaldi, chair of the state GOP, mentioned in a tweet that redrawing the thirty fourth District to be so closely Democratic “was an absolute waste of Flores’ talent & [Texas] House leadership made a bad call in giving her the short straw in redistricting.”

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee mentioned its $7 million investments in South Texas confirmed that “when we make meaningful investments in the Rio Grande Valley, voters choose Democrats.” Meanwhile, the National Republican Congressional Committee argued that the thousands and thousands of {dollars} the Democrats spent on seats Biden carried demonstrated they “will remain competitive.”

Cuellar spent a lot of the cycle criticizing his social gathering for not taking the border critically sufficient, incomes him common appearances on Fox News. In the weeks earlier than the election, he appeared a number of occasions on the Republican-friendly community with a neighboring GOP congressman, Tony Gonzales.

In Texas Senate District 27, Republican Adam Hinojosa was inside 600 votes of Democrat Morgan LaMantia on Wednesday in an open seat that redistricting made extra aggressive for the GOP, bringing the Biden margin down to six factors. It was a seat that some high Republicans, together with Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, had hesitated to push arduous for till latest weeks, when Patrick reeled in a Trump endorsement for Hinojosa.

Hinojosa issued a assertion Wednesday night wherein he mentioned he was nonetheless ready to see closing ballots counted.

There was one other too-close-to-call race for District 2 on the State Board of Education, which covers a lot of the Valley and goes up by way of Corpus Christi towards Houston. The Republican LJ Francis, was main by lower than half a proportion level and declared victory, whereas the Democrat, Victor Perez, mentioned he was ready to see the ultimate tally. Trump would have carried the district by 4 factors in 2020, however it was redrawn to be evenly divided within the presidential vote break up.

Republicans additionally mounted severe campaigns in opposition to two state House Democrats in South Texas, state Reps. Abel Herrero of Robstown and Eddie Morales of Eagle Pass. Both gained by double digits.

The GOP’s greatest defensive victory got here on the South Side of San Antonio, the place state Rep. John Lujan gained reelection by 4 factors after flipping the seat in a particular election final yr that Democrats claimed could be a fluke. He gained the particular election when it was a district that Biden carried by 14 factors; the redrawn district would have gone for Biden by simply 3.

De La Cruz, the Republican who was victorious within the fifteenth Congressional District, was fast to level out Tuesday that her win was years within the making. She first broke onto the stage within the 2020 election, when she got here inside 3 proportion factors of beating Gonzalez, who was then operating within the district, regardless of having lower than half his marketing campaign money. De La Cruz’s shut run impressed Flores and Cassy Garcia, Cuellar’s Republican opponent, to run this cycle.

“It’s been three years of hard work of educating voters in this area, and I can’t wait to see what the future holds not only for Texas 15 but for 28 and 34,” De La Cruz mentioned in a transient interview throughout her election evening social gathering.

LUPE Votes, a progressive organizing group based mostly within the Valley, additionally sees continued competitors forward. Its political director, Danny Diaz, mentioned in a assertion that the “Valley should be respected, and we expect it to be a political battleground for years to come.”

Borjon, who suggested Gonzalez, mentioned nationwide Democrats might want to do some soul looking out to know the type of social gathering candidate wanted in South Texas, acknowledging how Republicans closely tapped into South Texas voters’ social conservatism. Borjon mentioned extra “progressive wings” of the social gathering pushed insurance policies that might have alienated voters on immigration, policing and authorities spending.

Dan Sanchez, the Democrat who misplaced to Flores within the thirty fourth Congressional District’s particular election, mentioned the nationwide social gathering might want to proceed spending more cash to struggle off Republicans in South Texas.

“Have [national Democrats] spent enough? If you call a win enough, yes. But do they need to spend more? Absolutely,” he mentioned of Gonzalez. “Because in two years, he’s got to do it all over again. And so we don’t know if we’re gonna have someone like Mayra or someone that’s, you know, maybe a little further out there.”

Stephen Neukam contributed reporting.

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