SEC college football picks, odds in Week 5: Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin faces defining moment vs. LSU

We have reached the overall weekend of September, and the outlook of the SEC is entering focal point. 

No. 13 LSU survived an enormous scare from Arkansas ultimate week, casting some doubt on its advantage and quest for back-to-back SEC West titles. However, quarterback Jayden Daniels and broad receiver Malik Nabers have grow to be one of the unhealthy duos in the rustic. The Tigers will tackle No. 20 Ole Miss in Oxford, Mississippi, one week after the Rebels fell to No. 12 Alabama in the newest of many heartbreakers beneath coach Lane Kiffin.

Elsewhere, No. 1 Georgia assists in keeping marching in opposition to a possible three-peat at Auburn in the Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry. The Bulldogs have gained six directly over their cross-state rival, which is limping after a Week 4 loss to Texas A&M. 

The Crimson Tide righted the send ultimate weekend towards the Rebels and now trip to Mississippi State and a raucous Davis Wade Stadium. Is the Tide’s offensive line bettering? We will in finding out once they take the sphere in entrance of all of the ones cowbells in Starkville, Mississippi.

Let’s ruin down one of the largest storylines and make some alternatives!

Appetizer: Auburn’s large drawback

Tigers quarterback Payton Thorne was once 6 of 12 passing for 44 yards in the 27-10 loss to Texas A&M ultimate week ahead of he was once pulled for dual-threat signal-caller Robby Ashford. It did not paintings. Ashford was once 1 of four passing for 4 yards and ultimately was once changed by means of Holden Geriner. Did that paintings? You guessed it … nope. He went 2 of seven for 8 yards. As such, coach Hugh Freeze plans to return to his Week 1 plan with Thorne on the helm and Ashford serving in the changeup function towards the Bulldogs.

“We’re still kind of wading through that, but that’s probably where we’ll land this week also,” Freeze mentioned Monday. 

The operative phrase here’s ‘most certainly.’ Make indisputably about it: Freeze and the offensive training workforce are in full-on panic mode. Thorne threw for six,493 yards in 3 seasons at Michigan State for a explanation why, so it is not like he is completely incompetent. He’s a deer in headlights at the moment, and solving that towards Georgia is as most likely as my hair rising again.

Main path: Defining moment for Kiffin

Another yr, every other loss to Nick Saban. The Rebels’ 10 issues have been the fewest scored in an SEC recreation since Kiffin took over in 2020. The loss drops him to 5-7 towards AP Top 25 groups at Ole Miss and 8-22 general in stints at Tennessee (2009), USC (2010-13) and Florida Atlantic (2017-19). No. 13 LSU rolls into the city on Saturday for what isn’t just the most important Magnolia Bowl of Kiffin’s occupation, however a defining recreation for his popularity. 

The Tigers submit 509 yards towards Arkansas, 320 of which got here from Daniels, who had 4 touchdowns. They are tenth in the country in passing offense at 338.3 yards according to recreation and scoring offense at 42.8 issues according to recreation. Kiffin is aware of simply how unhealthy LSU’s offense is with Daniels on the helm.

“He, as you see, gets really hot. Completes a lot of passes, hard to bring down,” Kiffin mentioned Monday. “I don’t know that we’re in a better position. Need a really good game plan, and we’re gonna need to play really well.”

This recreation will resolve if Kiffin is extra sizzle than steak. A win assists in keeping the Rebels in the SEC West identify race however a loss will necessarily get rid of them, indicating Kiffin would possibly have reached his training ceiling. 

Dessert: Tennessee’s strive at revenge

Tennessee’s 63-38 loss at South Carolina ultimate yr eradicated the Volunteers from College Football Playoff competition and put a stain on what was once in a different way a paranormal yr. Gamecocks quarterback Spencer Rattler threw for 453 yards and 6 touchdowns in the observe meet; it is most likely Rattler will pressure the way of this recreation as neatly, and no one has been ready to forestall Gamecocks receiver Xavier Legette. Styles make fights, and Tennessee will want banner day in order to knock the Gamecocks out. 

Vols quarterback Joe Milton III has now not lived as much as the preseason hype. He ranks eleventh amongst SEC passers in yards according to recreation (231.3) and final touch share (62.5%). That’s now not going to chop it. Rattler finished 18 of 20 passes for 288 yards and 3 touchdowns in the 37-30 win over Mississippi State ultimate week. That places him 2nd in the SEC in final touch charge (74.2%). 

“He understands coverages, sees rotations. He takes himself to the right spot based on the coverage and the beaters that they have up on their schemes,” Vols coach Josh Heupel said of Rattler. “He’s got the ability to extend and make plays with his feet. He’s accurate with the football. You’ve got to do a great job. You’ve got to control the line of scrimmage. You’ve got to apply pressure to him. You can’t let him out of the pocket, at the same time. When he does scramble, you’ve got to match the personnel out in space.”

Make no mistake, this shall be a struggle of quarterbacks.

Power scores

1. Georgia
2. LSU
3. Alabama
4. Ole Miss
5. Florida
6. Tennessee
7. Missouri
8. Texas A&M
9. Kentucky
10. South Carolina
11. Arkansas
12. Auburn
13. Mississippi State
14. Vanderbilt

Picks

Straight up: 43-6 | Against the unfold: 21-14-2

*Picks use SportsLine consensus odds and have been made on Instagram since SEC Smothered & Covered began in Week 2

No. 1 Georgia at Auburn

Auburn cannot ranking. That’s now not deep research, however it is all that must be mentioned about this one. There is not any method the Tigers, in the midst of a quarterback conundrum, are going to get issues mounted towards Georgia’s protection. Auburn’s protection could also be just right, however few defenses can maintain themselves for 4 quarters with none assist from the offense. Georgia will win this one by means of no less than 20 issues. Pick: Georgia -14.5

No. 12 Alabama at Mississippi State

The Crimson Tide offensive line confirmed some growth towards Ole Miss, which is the main explanation why quarterback Jalen Milroe finished 81% of his passes. Mississippi State’s cross protection is ultimate in the country in opponent final touch share at 74.2%. Uh oh. Milroe will pressure Bulldogs quarterback Will Rogers — who’s twelfth in the league in final touch charge at 60.7% — to remove darkness from an Alabama protection that has appearing marked growth during the last two video games. Pick: Alabama -14.5

No. 13 LSU at No. 20 Ole Miss

The Tigers will proceed to remove darkness from opposing protection because of quarterback Jayden Daniels. However, Rebels quarterback Jaxson Dart hasn’t thrown a pick out at house, and the gang at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium shall be revved up for what is without doubt one of the maximum underrated rivalries in the rustic. The two signal-callers will make this a observe meet, and I agree with Daniels in that scenario greater than Dart — even at the street. This will move down as an fast vintage with LSU popping out on most sensible in a 1-point recreation … in all probability in extra time. Pick: Ole Miss +3

South Carolina at No. 21 Tennessee

South Carolina is much beneath Tennessee in my energy scores, which implies that Tennessee gets the win right here. Wrong. Styles make fights, and Rattler will flip this one right into a shootout. Who do you agree with extra: Rattler or Milton? The resolution is beautiful obtrusive. Milton will make a few past due errors during the air. The Gamecocks will and now not simplest quilt, however win this one outright. Pick: South Carolina +12.5

No. 22 Florida at Kentucky

If you might be in search of an underrated recreation that can come all the way down to a box purpose, that is it. Florida’s offense is not flashy, however quarterback Graham Mertz has been good with the football and the offensive line has progressed since Week 1. It’s a ways from dynamic, alternatively. Kentucky’s protection hasn’t been as constant appropriately, however it may not been that threatened by means of Mertz and Co. This shall be an extremely low-scoring, old-school affair in which Florida will win in a slight dissatisfied. Pick: Florida +2.5

No. 23 Missouri at Vanderbilt

The Tigers are just about two-touchdown favorites in this one, however that is just a little an excessive amount of for a stagnant environment in Nashville. Neither staff has been persistently just right towards the cross, which implies this shall be a observe meet. Vanderbilt quarterback AJ Swann struggled ultimate week towards Kentucky and is nursing an arm damage, however this is factored into the unfold. Even if he does not play, the Commodores have sufficient guns outdoor to no less than stay this affordable. Tigers quarterback Brady Cook will make a couple of performs past due to safe the victory. However, the specter of a backdoor quilt is simply too giant to forget about. Pick: Vanderbilt +13.5

Which college football alternatives are you able to make with self belief in Week 5, and which underdogs will win outright? Visit SportsLine to see which teams will win and cover the spread — all from a confirmed laptop fashion that has returned nearly $2,500 in benefit over the last seven-plus seasons — and in finding out.