SEC college football picks, odds in Week 4: Can reeling Alabama survive potential shootout with Ole Miss?

Week 4 of the 2023 college football season has arrived, which means it is time for the SEC championship race to kick into complete tools. Five convention video games are featured at the agenda Saturday, together with a large recreation between No. 15 Ole Miss and No. 13 Alabama in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. The Crimson Tide are coming off a slow 17-3 win over South Florida and can ship Jalen Milroe out to take the snaps after the failed Tyler Buchner/Ty Simpson experiment towards the Bulls. The Rebels ran clear of Georgia Tech closing weekend, and there is no doubt that trainer Lane Kiffin would like not anything greater than to ship the Tide into the basement of the SEC West and most likely get rid of them from the College Football Playoff race.

No. 12 LSU used to be dominant in its win over Mississippi State closing weekend, and a powerful appearing towards Arkansas in the Battle for the Golden Boot will additional validate the Tigers’ case to transport again into the highest 10 in addition to the CFP race. A loss, on the other hand, would all however get rid of the Tigers from nationwide name competition. 

There’s additionally a fascinating matchup in College Station, Texas, that includes Auburn and Texas A&M in what will have to be a revealing recreation that provides fanatics a glimpse into the development of every workforce.

SEC Smothered & Covered is right here to get you able for an intriguing Week 4 slate in the SEC universe.

Appetizer: Auburn QB rotation

The Tigers have turned around Payton Thorne and Robby Ashford throughout the primary 3 video games of the season with Ashford serving because the changeup choice because of his skill to frustrate defenses with his legs. However, Thorne took the vast majority of the snaps in the 43-13 win over Samford closing week when he went 24-of-32 passing for 282 yards with one landing and two interceptions. Thorne additionally added in 123 speeding yards with two rankings at the flooring. Still, the 2 quarterbacks will once more rotate this week, in step with trainer Hugh Freeze. 

“We have confidence and I thought he (Thorne) threw it really well the other night,” Freeze stated throughout his Monday press convention. “He made one bad decision, I thought, but the others, we kind of shed on as coaches, and so I hope he continues to build on that. The guy was 18 yards from doing something that an Auburn quarterback hasn’t done in a really long time — maybe ever. So, I hope we build on that and gain confidence from that. At the same time, I’ve been clear about Robby (Ashford) having a role and I do believe that, particularly against the level of athleticism we are about to see.”

Freeze is obviously involved with Texas A&M’s athleticism, so it will be fascinating to peer if he tries to construct off Thorne’s efficiency or carry Ashford into the combination even supposing the Aggies will for sure know what his presence at the box approach.

Main direction: Watch out for the land sharks

The land sharks will probably be circling Bryant-Denny Stadium on Saturday when the Ole Miss protection faces off towards a reeling offense. The Rebels rank 3rd in the SEC in tackles for loss in keeping with recreation (8.0), which performs immediately into the Crimson Tide’s maximum regarding offensive drawback: the offensive line. The fact is that Milroe (or Buchner and Simpson) hasn’t been given a lot of a possibility for good fortune as a result of an offensive line that has been getting blown up even by means of reasonable festival.

Plus, there is the Pete Golding issue. The first-year Rebels defensive coordinator Rebels spent the closing 5 seasons in the similar function at Alabama. He is aware of Milroe. He is aware of how a lot the Tide offensive line has struggled during the last two seasons. He is aware of that, by means of all accounts, Saban ushered him out the door of the football complicated in order that Kevin Steele may take over the protection. 

This is private. Sure, it is private for Kiffin. We all know that he’s taking this recreation a lot more critically than others even supposing he does not say so publicly. It is not only Kiffin this time, although. Expect Golding to get very ingenious with how he schemes up drive on Milroe.

Dessert: Yes, LSU remains to be a monster

Let’s now not play the transitive assets recreation and say “man, since Florida State struggled against Boston College, LSU must be a pretender.” All that Florida State did in the 45-21 win over the Tigers in Week 1 used to be exploit the only fear trainer Brian Kelly had coming into the season: secondary play. Two video games later, issues seem to be progressing properly. More importantly, Jayden Daniels appeared like a monster as he scored 4 touchdowns (two passing, two speeding) and extensive receiver Malik Nabers post 239 yards and two touchdowns in the 41-14 win over Mississippi State in Starkville, Mississippi.

This game is all about development. We noticed that closing 12 months with those exact same Tigers, nationwide runner-up TCU and a number of other different groups. Why can not LSU repeat the feat? It can, and it will have to. The Tigers are a countrywide name risk, and a win over Arkansas will have to vault them again right into a rightful position in the highest 10.

Picks

Straight up: 36-4 | Against the unfold: 17-10-1

*Picks use SportsLine consensus odds and have been made on Instagram since SEC Smothered & Covered began in Week 2

The Bulldogs offense were given proper in the second one part of the win over South Carolina closing week, and that may proceed this week. Daijun Edwards cracked the 100-yard mark at the flooring and Carson Beck took extra keep watch over of the offense to steer the Bulldogs again from an 11-point halftime deficit. Coach Kirby Smart and offensive coodinator Mike Bobo will construct off that in the primary part towards the Blazers. However, the body of workers will faucet the brakes in the second one part in order to stay the starters wholesome with the beef of the SEC agenda looming. Pick: UAB +42

Arkansas at No. 12 LSU

Arkansas used to be a crisis in closing weekend’s loss to BYU, and LSU will mild that protection up like a Christmas tree. The Razorbacks are not constructed to stretch the sphere deep and its cross protection, whilst advanced, is nowhere just about enjoying on the degree it must be in order to close down Daniels and Co. in Baton Rouge, Louisiana. The risk of a backdoor quilt by means of the Hogs is at the desk, however give me the Tigers to get the process completed. Pick: LSU -17.5

No. 15 Ole Miss at No. 13 Alabama

This one will probably be a shootout — one throughout which the Crimson Tide will be unable to take care of. The offensive line is the unit plaguing the Tide at the moment, and the Rebels cross rush will tee off on Milroe when issues begin to get wild in the second one part. It’s stunning that Alabama is even appreciated in this recreation, a lot much less by means of a landing. Take the Rebels to hide and win outright. Pick: Ole Miss +7

The standing of Road Runners quarterback Frank Harris is up in the air as he continues to get better from a turf toe damage, which is a huge reason why the Volunteers are such giant favorites. The Vols defensive entrance did not play as much as its features closing week towards Florida, however it will rebound this week both towards both a restricted Harris or backup Eddie Lee Marburger. The chance for a backdoor quilt is in play, however the Vols gets the process completed in the tip. Pick: Tennessee -20.5

The Gators ruled Tennessee closing week in a recreation that confirmed the offensive line has improved in a large approach. That allowed the working recreation to flourish, quarterback Graham Mertz to polish like a celebrity and this Gators workforce to seem like a risk in the SEC East. Coach Billy Napier will take that wisdom, construct off of it after which pull the starters previous than anticipated. That will permit Charlotte to get the overdue quilt. Pick: Charlotte +28

Auburn at Texas A&M

The Aggies have ruled weaker festival this 12 months, however Auburn does not have compatibility into that class. The Tigers had been lighting out on protection, and they’re going to display it once more on Saturday in College Station, Texas, with a dominating efficiency towards quarterback Conner Weigman. Will the offense construct off of closing week’s efficiency? That continues to be noticed. But it’ll do sufficient to spring the disillusioned. Pick: Auburn +7.5

Kentucky’s protection has been very cast all season lengthy, giving up 4.38 yards in keeping with play together with 3.62 in closing week’s win over Akron. Can Vanderbilt turn the script? Maybe to not get a win however sufficient to make it nearer than the oddsmakers be expecting. Quarterback AJ Swann is a bit of banged up, however he’ll nonetheless give you the chance to glue with extensive receiver Will Sheppard early and incessantly. With that stated, Kentucky’s protection will power some overdue errors and get out of Nashville with a detailed win. Pick: Vanderbilt +14

The combat of 2 Tigers with 3-0 information will move down on Saturday night time in Columbia, Missouri. Memphis crowned Navy closing week in a wild one, however now not as wild as Missouri’s 30-27 walk-off win over Kansas State on a 61-yard box objective by means of Harrison Mevis. Missouri quarterback Brady Cook had his maximum spectacular efficiency in that nail-biter, and he’ll proceed to polish this weekend in a win over Memphis. Still, the Memphis offense is not any slouch both and can stay this one just about the sour finish. Pick: Memphis +7

Mississippi State at South Carolina

Daniels lit up the Bulldogs protection closing week, and Spencer Rattler will do the similar on Saturday. In that case, it will be as much as the Bulldogs offense led by means of quarterback Will Rogers to take care of. The drawback is that Rogers is not in a position to doing that since Mississippi State is beginning to transition clear of the Air Raid. Take the Gamecocks … giant. Pick: South Carolina -6

Which college football choices are you able to make with self belief in Week 4, and which underdogs will win outright? Visit SportsLine to see which teams will win and cover the spread — all from a confirmed pc fashion that has returned nearly $2,500 in benefit during the last seven-plus seasons — and to find out.