Republicans weigh how hard to contend in Senate District 29

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Addressing a Hidalgo County GOP dinner final month, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick singled out for reward a pleasant Democrat in the gang, retiring state Sen. Eddie Lucio Jr. of Brownsville.

Patrick mentioned Lucio, probably the most average Democrat in the Senate, (*29*) and “never ever let me down when I needed a vote.”

Then, in the following breath, Patrick mentioned Republicans want to seize Lucio’s seat.

“Adam Hinojosa, wherever you’re sitting, you need to win that district,” Patrick mentioned, referring to the GOP nominee, “because we can win that district now that [Lucio]’s retired.”

The scene helped illustrate the distinctive dynamics each events now face in Texas Senate District 27, which is the one aggressive Senate district in November — and simply so occurs to be in South Texas. Republicans have excessive hopes in the area this cycle after former President Donald Trump fared surprisingly properly there in 2020 and the GOP flipped a congressional seat there in a June particular election.

After a sleepy major in Senate District 27 — at the very least in contrast to the Democratic aspect — Republicans intent on making features amongst Hispanic Texans are beginning to pay extra consideration to the race, sensing a possibility that’s too good to cross up in the present atmosphere.

Still, it stays to be seen if Republicans will prioritize the competition as a lot as others in the area. They are up towards a formidable Democratic nominee in Morgan LaMantia, a McAllen lawyer whose whose household runs the L&F beer distributor — and who spent over $3 million to win her occasion’s nomination whereas making bipartisan appeals that might repay in November.

Redistricting is fueling the GOP optimism in the district — it’s now a seat that President Joe Biden would have carried hypothetically in 2020 by fewer than 7 proportion factors — however so is the broader GOP offensive in the area, which received a shot of momentum in June when Republican Mayra Flores won a congressional seat there. More notably, Flores gained the longtime Democratic stronghold that anchors the district — Cameron County — which can also be the largest county in SD-27.

Hinojosa mentioned Flores’ win let voters “know this is possible.” He added that he has had “great conversations” with Patrick about coverage, together with the problem that has so endeared the lieutenant governor to Lucio — his willingness to buck his occasion and staunchly oppose abortion. When Lucio introduced his retirement final yr, Patrick issued an announcement that alluded to Lucio’s anti-abortion report and mentioned he hoped “the new Senator from his district will have the courage to continue Sen. Lucio’s legacy.”

“I believe [Patrick] as well as a lot of statewide Republicans understand the opportunity here,” Hinojosa mentioned. “It’s very real.”

Patrick stayed out of the first in the district — a conspicuous absence on condition that he engaged aggressively in the nominating contests for each different open Senate seat. But he appears to have targeted extra on the race now that Hinojosa is the nominee, shouting him out twice on the Hidalgo County GOP Lincoln Reagan Dinner and promising to “do everything I can to help” make the Rio Grande Valley a “Republican stronghold.”

Gov. Greg Abbott, whose marketing campaign is very targeted on South Texas, equally saved quiet throughout the major however sees a gap in the final election. His marketing campaign had Hinojosa take part in a news convention countering the state Democratic conference final week in Dallas, and whereas Abbott has not made any formal endorsements for the November election but, his prime political strategist, Dave Carney, mentioned SD-27 “is in the heart of our southern Texas region and we’re gonna do everything we can to turn out our voters there.”

​“It’s definitely a winnable seat,” Carney mentioned.

Lucio, for his half, mentioned it’s “hard to say” how aggressive the race shall be till nearer to November. In an interview, he reiterated his help for LaMantia, recalling how her grandfather endorsed him when he first ran for Senate in 1990, however he additionally referred to as Hinojosa “a very fine gentleman.”

“I don’t know how much the party’s gonna pour into his campaign,” Lucio mentioned, “but if it’s significant, he’ll give her a very good race for her money.”

Lucio endorsed LaMantia again throughout her major, however she distanced herself from a few of his much less in style positions amongst fellow Democrats, particularly his anti-abortion report. While it might have helped her emerge because the Democratic nominee, it’s now one of many greatest contrasts that Hinojosa is citing for the November election.

“I’m pro-life and she is very much not pro-life,” Hinojosa mentioned. “In a district where our Democrat Sen. Eddie Lucio is very pro-life, that’s a pretty drastic shift [if voters elect LaMantia].”

At least financially, Hinojosa is at an enormous drawback in the race. Compared to her seven-figure machine, he raised lower than $50,000 as of June 30 and loaned himself $88,000. He had slightly over $5,000 money available on the finish of June; LaMantia had $58,000.

LaMantia has nonetheless been conscious that even after a aggressive Democratic major, she could have to work hard to defend the district in the final election. She has campaigned hard on her enterprise expertise and spent her major runoff criticizing each events for inaction on border issues. In one TV advert, she advised Biden, who’s deeply unpopular throughout Texas, that his administration has “no plan” for the border.

LaMantia’s runoff opponent, Sara Stapleton-Barrera, accused LaMantia of echoing Republican speaking factors, however LaMantia’s big-spending marketing campaign plowed its method to a 14-percentage-point victory in May.

Still, it’s an open query whether or not Republicans are prepared to combat as hard in SD-27 as they’re in different overlapping districts. For instance, they’re anticipated to battle to get Flores reelected to Congress in November, when she faces U.S. Rep. Vicente Gonzalez, D-McAllen, in a bluer district, and state House management is all in on electing Republican Janie Lopez to a brand new battleground seat in Cameron County.

One of Lopez’s main backers, the Associated Republicans of Texas, has not endorsed Hinojosa but, however its vp, Aaron De Leon, mentioned the group is “looking to expand the map any way we can.”

Texans for Lawsuit Reform, one other big-spending group based mostly in Austin, has already backed LaMantia with $115,000 in contributions all through her Democratic major and runoff. But the tort reform group is shut to Republican management, and it’s unclear how it’ll navigate the final election in Senate District 27. Asked concerning the race, a spokesperson mentioned the group has not made any selections about normal election endorsements but.

Disclosure: Texans for Lawsuit Reform has been a monetary supporter of The Texas Tribune, a nonprofit, nonpartisan news group that’s funded in half by donations from members, foundations and company sponsors. Financial supporters play no position in the Tribune’s journalism. Find an entire list of them here.

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