Republicans rebound in some Texas suburbs that had been drifting blue

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For two election cycles, Texas Republicans felt the blue waves lapping on the edges of suburban counties that had lengthy been GOP strongholds.

The successful margins for Republicans started to slim in 2016 when former President Donald Trump was elected. In 2018, counties that hadn’t voted for a Democrat in a long time turned out for Beto O’Rourke in his unsuccessful bid to unseat U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz. The El Paso Democrat additionally pressured Cruz into single-digit wins in ruby purple Republican counties.

In the presidential race two years later, Joe Biden held on to the counties that flipped, although his successful margin was barely narrower, and the Republican lead shrunk even in purple counties that remained in the GOP’s column.

But by the top of Election Day this time, the blue political waters had receded. In the primary contest with out Trump on the poll or in workplace, Gov. Greg Abbott’s efficiency towards O’Rourke stalled Democratic momentum in some of the suburbs — even when the GOP has but to match its pre-Trump ranges of help.

Fast-growing Central Texas suburbs politically cut up

Growing communities north and south of Austin had been as soon as reliably Republican, delivering large double-digit victories in the early 2000s. They have since reworked politically.

The days of 40- and 30-point leads for Republicans had been a distant reminiscence in Williamson County earlier than O’Rourke narrowly flipped it in 2018. That 12 months, Abbott simply held on to the county in his reelection bid, however one other statewide Republican — Attorney General Ken Paxton — misplaced there. Tuesday night time’s outcomes could have put the county into the battleground class after Abbott managed solely a 1-point lead.

Hays County, nevertheless, could also be out of attain for Republicans shifting ahead. Home to Texas State University, the county hadn’t voted for Democrats on the high of the ticket since 1992 earlier than swinging laborious for O’Rourke in 2018 and narrowly choosing Abbott’s Democratic challenger that 12 months, former Dallas County Sheriff Lupe Valdez.

Hays gave Biden a slimmer margin in 2020, which O’Rourke was capable of match this 12 months. In reality, O’Rourke’s lead over Abbott in Hays barely outpaced his margin of victory in large blue Harris County.

Political contrasts in Harris County’s largest suburbs

Often described as probably the most ethnically various in the United States, Fort Bend County’s laborious swing towards Democrats started in 2016 when the social gathering hoped the county’s variety might flip it reliably purple. O’Rourke widened Democrats’ lead in the 2018 Senate race whereas Abbott took house a razor-thin 0.2% margin of victory.

The county remained blue Tuesday night time however with a narrower margin for O’Rourke.

Meanwhile, Montgomery County stays a brilliant spot for Republicans, providing the social gathering whopping double-digit margins of victory. North of Harris County, it’s house to The Woodlands and Conroe and has a considerably larger share of white residents than Fort Bend. Abbott managed to spice up the Republican lead by a number of factors Tuesday night time, although he underperformed in contrast along with his win in 2014, when he was first elected governor.

In North Texas, Republican margins rebound

Big blue Dallas County apart, North Texas has lengthy been Republican nation, however the social gathering’s dominance suffered in the Trump period.

Most notably, O’Rourke narrowly flipped Tarrant County — thought of probably the most conservative city county in the nation — in 2018. Biden managed to carry on to the county two years later. Republicans could relaxation simpler now that the state’s third-largest county has flipped again to Republicans with a 4-point lead for Abbott, however the governor fell nicely in need of matching his 2014 efficiency.

Abbott additionally helped Republicans rebound in Denton and Collin counties, the place Democrats had minimize into their management since 2016. But the GOP remains to be a good distance from returning to pre-Trump help in the more and more various pockets of the state.

Republicans as soon as noticed 40- to 50-point successful margins in Collin County. The first time he ran for governor in 2014, Abbott gained the county by greater than 30 factors.

On Tuesday night time, he gained by simply 10.

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