Republican confidence grows as they eye a South Texas congressional sweep

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BROWNSVILLE — Texas Republicans are brimming with optimism forward of Election Day over their potential to ship historic wins within the Democratic stronghold of South Texas by flipping three key congressional races.

And South Texas Democrats are on a battle footing.

“They’re trying to buy elections in South Texas with money from outside of here, spending extraordinary amounts of money to try to turn things,” U.S. Rep. Vicente Gonzalez, D-McAllen, informed supporters Tuesday in Brownsville, portray the Rio Grande Valley as underneath siege from huge donors in locations like Alabama and Mississippi.

“They’re trying to turn us, but we’re gonna turn them,” Gonzalez added as cheers grew louder. “If we whoop their ass this time, they’ll never come back!”

With lower than a week till the Nov. 8 election, lengthy gone is any Democratic dismissiveness on whether or not their districts in South Texas are up for grabs. Gonzalez and longtime congressman Henry Cuellar, D-Laredo, are combating for his or her political lives, and in a third neighboring congressional district, Democrat Michelle Vallejo is working an underdog marketing campaign to maintain the open seat blue.

In the previous few weeks, Democratic footing in these battleground races has solely grown extra unsure: Multiple forecasters have declared the seats that beforehand leaned towards Democrats a toss-up. A wave of nationwide and statewide polls present Republican energy and rising voter concern on conservative points such as border safety and the financial system. And nationwide Republicans have seized the chance, pouring eight-figure sums into their candidates.

Republicans are sure they will win at the very least one of many South Texas congressional races — they’ve exhibited essentially the most confidence in Monica De La Cruz’s race in opposition to Vallejo for the reason that Legislature redrew the district to be one which former President Donald Trump would have carried by 3 share factors. (He misplaced the previous model by 2 factors.)

But some Republicans are actually brazenly speculating they’ll win all three. Dave Carney, Gov. Greg Abbott’s chief strategist, not too long ago stated Abbott’s marketing campaign feels “spectacularly positive” about South Texas and that every one three contests are “within victory.” In a sign of his dedication to the area, Abbott is internet hosting his election evening watch occasion in McAllen.

“I expect to win” all three, Tom Emmer, the chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee, stated in a latest interview. “I absolutely do.”

Such a sweep could be a political earthquake in South Texas, probably resulting in the GOP representing each a part of the Texas-Mexico border besides El Paso.

And whereas Republicans have poured money into the area to attempt to win the three seats, Democrats have additionally spent huge to defend Gonzalez and Cuellar, drawn into expensive battles in districts that have been really made bluer in redistricting. Their districts would have gone for President Joe Biden by 16 and seven share factors, respectively.

It is a new expertise for South Texas and the four-county space on the backside of it recognized as the Rio Grande Valley. Long dominated by Democrats, the predominantly Hispanic area has been unusually inundated for a November election.

“I see a lot of ads,” Vickie Pardo, a 70-year-old retired instructor, stated after early voting Wednesday in McAllen, waving her hand in exasperation. “It’s like, ‘Shut it off.’”

Over in Brownsville, streets huge and small are lined with Gonzalez’s indicators, which say “Vicente con la gente,” or Vicente with the individuals. Just as ubiquitous are these of his Republican rival, U.S. Rep. Mayra Flores of Los Indios, which tout her slogan of “dios, familia, patria” — God, household and nation.

While Republicans have lengthy touted the races as referenda on border coverage underneath Biden, the contests are additionally ending on extra private phrases as the GOP paints Cuellar and Gonzalez as soiled politicians with ties to Mexican drug cartels. Democrats have taken extra divergent approaches to their two Republican rivals, assailing Cassy Garcia as a menace to well being care and the social security web and Flores as an extremist on abortion, weapons and the 2020 election.

The state’s No. 1 Democrat, gubernatorial nominee Beto O’Rourke, didn’t categorical any concern concerning the South Texas races whereas campaigning with Gonzalez on Tuesday in Brownsville. O’Rourke stated he was “really encouraged by the local leadership I see.”

The thirty fourth District could be the sweetest victory for Republicans. Not solely did redistricting make it the bluest of the three districts, nevertheless it additionally added more Hispanic eligible voters. Flores captured the seat in a June particular election, however the boundaries of the district then have been extra favorable to Republicans. Democrats dismissed the thought she may maintain on to it within the fall with the brand new map in place.

But now nationwide prognosticators name the race a toss-up, and Republicans are exuberant.

“Mayra’s become a movement more than a member, and she’s going to win again,” Dan Conston, president of the Congressional Leadership Fund, stated on a recent podcast.

TX-34

Gonzalez is the incumbent within the fifteenth District however determined to hunt reelection within the thirty fourth District because of redistricting. The new thirty fourth District goes from Brownsville over to McAllen and up the coast to outdoors Corpus Christi.

On paper, the district seems to have much more Democrats than Republicans, particularly after redistricting. But Flores is hoping to scramble that math along with her appeals to voters much like herself: Latinos who lengthy voted Democratic out of custom however who now query whether or not the occasion actually represents them.

That was obvious as Flores campaigned Tuesday all through the district with Tulsi Gabbard, the previous Hawaii congresswoman and presidential candidate who not too long ago left the Democratic Party.

“There are a lot of people who maybe feel like I feel,” Gabbard stated, addressing a crowd of about 100 individuals at a meals truck park. “There are a lot of people who may have been Democrats for a long time — they maybe never voted for a Republican, and they’re not quite sure if they’re comfortable.”

Speaking earlier than Gabbard, Flores stated South Texans have “been loyal to a party that’s taken advantage of them, of their good heart.”

After the Gabbard rally, one Flores supporter, Victor Vasquez, stated he didn’t know a lot about Gonzalez.

“I just know the direction we’re headed in — it’s not good,” stated Vasquez, a 53-year-old ICU nurse from Brownsville. “It’s really hit our pocketbook.”

Republican operatives say Gonzalez’s favorability ranking has taken a beating after over a month of advertisements centered on a 2006 case during which he defended a man who was convicted of illegally transporting undocumented migrants throughout state traces. Rather than absolutely attacking Flores, House Majority PAC — the highest Democratic tremendous PAC in congressional races — has spent the closing days of the competition airing TV advertisements that additionally search to shore up Gonzalez’s picture.

Gonzalez pushed again the toughest but this week, releasing a TV advert during which his spouse denounces the assault advertisements and says that as a lawyer, “he represented our gente” — the Spanish phrase for individuals — “not criminals.” And on Tuesday, Gonzalez voluntarily launched a assertion looking for to debunk a number of assault traces which have aired in opposition to him.

Republican operatives have recently portrayed Gonzalez as an conceited creature of Washington who is simply now realizing he must put within the leg work to win the seat. But Gonzalez’s allies say that, for all his errors in this race, failing to anticipate the problem is just not one among them.

Jose Borjon, a former chief of employees for Gonzalez who advises on the marketing campaign, recalled a telephone name with the congressman three months in the past during which Gonzalez stated, “​​this race was going to be extremely serious, extremely expensive.” Gonzalez has all the time been an aggressive campaigner, even in far much less aggressive races, Borjon stated, although he has by no means confronted a problem fairly as steep as this cycle since his first election in 2016.

Ben Whitman, vice chair of the Northern Cameron County Democrats, stated Flores’ marketing campaign has been “very persistent” in its floor sport, repeatedly knocking on doorways of voters who’re thought-about robust Democrats. He didn’t suppose Flores’ marketing campaign was altering any minds, however he stated the marketing campaign’s “fervor” has been placing.

“They’re really not giving up on anyone trying to persuade them,” Whitman stated.

TX-28

Cuellar stays essentially the most wily goal for the GOP within the three congressional races. A well-established incumbent — he has been in Congress since 2005 — Cuellar is campaigning on the bipartisan document that made him an antagonist of fellow Democrats in his hotly contested main.

“This is a unique race,” stated Stanley “Stosh” Boyle, the mayor of Cibolo in suburban San Antonio and a Cuellar supporter. “This really doesn’t have anything to do with Democratic, Republican.”

Republicans have spent weeks attacking Cuellar as corrupt, together with by elevating questions on the FBI raid of his Laredo home in January. The FBI nonetheless has not stated what it was investigating, however Cuellar has denied any wrongdoing.

The GOP efforts to color Cuellar as soiled reached a crescendo this week with a TV ad linking him to Mexican drug cartels.

The industrial from the National Republican Congressional Committee cites a 2006 marketing campaign contribution that Cuellar received from the spouse of a San Antonio man later accused of cash laundering for the cartels. Cuellar’s marketing campaign stated they had donated the contribution to charity after studying the person’s brother had been killed in Mexico in a cartel-connected slaying.

Cuellar responded swiftly and fiercely to the advert.

“In Spanish, there is a saying, ‘patadas de ahogado,’” Cuellar stated in a assertion. “And that is exactly what this is, a desperate and futile attempt to influence this race with lies.”

Since the advert got here out, Cuellar and Garcia have gone to battle in opposition to each other on Twitter, with Garcia at one level labeling the congressman “Henry Cuellar (D-Narcos).”

On the opposite facet, Garcia has confronted a raft of commercials blasting her for feedback she made when she was a staffer for Sen. Ted Cruz opposing Obamacare, together with tweets calling for its full repeal. On Wednesday, she issued a assertion distancing herself from that posture, saying she needs to “focus on making the [Affordable Care Act] work better for families in South Texas.”

Throughout the race, Republicans have needed to take care of Cuellar’s bipartisan picture, however they have discovered a dependable assault in his closeness to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif.

“With all due respect to [Garcia’s] opponent, who is a friend — I like Henry … she will not be voting for Nancy Pelosi for speaker,” U.S. Rep. Chip Roy, R-San Antonio, stated at a Garcia rally final month within the district that Emmer, the NRCC chair, headlined.

Cuellar, a political fixture in Laredo, has been notably targeted on the San Antonio finish of his district. He received blown on the market in his main, acknowledging afterward that he wanted to achieve out extra to the realm, and Garcia has primarily based her marketing campaign in Schertz, a northern San Antonio suburb.

Jesus Toro Martinez is a San Antonio activist who supported Cuellar’s main challenger, Jessica Cisneros, however now calls himself a “strong Cuellar supporter.”

“People that were Democrats that did not vote for him [in the primary] are coming out to vote for him,” Martinez stated Wednesday whereas knocking doorways for Cuellar, including that the ”most convincing argument” is sustaining Cuellar’s seniority in Congress. “A ‘no’ vote for Cuellar means no progress in this congressional district. We would start all over again from the beginning.”

TX-15

In the fifteenth Congressional District, which stretches from the jap exurbs of San Antonio right down to the Mexican border in McAllen, Vallejo is basically going at it alone. As a nonincumbent in a district leaning barely towards Republicans, the progressive newcomer was a lot additional down the precedence checklist for nationwide Democratic operatives attempting to guard present members. The DCCC and House Majority PAC opted in opposition to spending to air TV advertisements within the district, much to the ire of state Democrats.

Vallejo’s allies say the news gave the race new goal.

“People just got really pissed off about it and they said, ‘You know what, you don’t want to give us some money? That’s fine. We’re going to show you we can do it without you,’” stated Richard Gonzales, chair of the Hidalgo County Democratic Party.

The DCCC has contested that it deserted the race, arguing it has invested early within the race in a floor workplace within the area and has run digital and radio advertisements for Vallejo.

Vallejo’s crew stresses there may be motive to hope. Democratic polling launched late final month discovered Vallejo and De La Cruz tied, and Vallejo narrowly outraised De La Cruz on their ultimate main campaign-finance report.

National Democrats haven’t completely given up on the race within the homestretch. House Majority PAC has despatched out at the very least one mailer within the ultimate days, attacking De La Cruz for opposing abortion in circumstances of rape and incest.

Vallejo has leaned in to abortion rights greater than Cuellar and Gonzalez, who’re extra average on the problem. She and different South Texas progressives have got down to disprove the concept that Hispanic voters are reluctant due to their Catholic religion to again a candidate who helps abortion rights.

They have frequent trigger with voters like Diana Bellmore, who was among the many voters Vallejo greeted Wednesday morning outdoors a McAllen polling location.

“I don’t believe in abortion, but I don’t believe in taking away our right to choose,” stated Bellmore, a 69-year-old retired nurse from Pharr.

She additionally recognized gun violence as a high concern, noting she owns looking rifles however doesn’t imagine anybody wants an AR-15 to, for instance, kill a deer.

Another Vallejo voter, Donna Szegeski, a 70-year-old retiree from McAllen, stated she favored the candidate because of her native roots and the youthful “energy” she has dropped at the race. Pardo, the retired instructor, stated she thought Vallejo may win if sufficient individuals vote, however she expressed concern about apathy amongst Hispanic Texans who don’t imagine their vote issues.

To Republicans, in the meantime, a historic second is inside attain.

“I think right now, the whole Valley has changed,” stated Julio Graña, a 36-year-old Brownsville enterprise proprietor who attended the Flores rally and, like her, is a Mexican immigrant. “I think the Republican Party, the conservatives, have woken up.”

Disclosure: Common Cause has been a monetary supporter of The Texas Tribune, a nonprofit, nonpartisan news group that’s funded partly by donations from members, foundations and company sponsors. Financial supporters play no function within the Tribune’s journalism. Find a full list of them here.