NFL Week 7 odds, picks, spreads, best bets: Bills thrash Patriots, Bucs hold at home, why NFL scores are low

Apparently I felt dangerous about going 3-3 with my best bets on this column this week, as a result of I determined to move signifantly over my customary phrase general or even added in a desk explaining why an enormous highway favourite in a divisional sport is a cast guess. 

Or perhaps I used to be fading the beneath development — unders smashed remaining week with NFL scoring manner down. 

We in truth did a really perfect deep dive at the matter all over the newest episode of the Pick Six Podcast — listen/subscribe/download right here — and shoutout to new pod producer Harry Swartout for leaping at the development and environment the desk for some improbable Brady Quinn and Leger Douzable takes. I’d clearly inspire you to subscribe to the pod, however we are all millennials at middle so this is the condensed model by the use of the @NFLonCBS YouTube web page: 

Obviously should you loved the ones high quality soccer takes, hit the subscribe button or add the pod to your rotation. 

I believe there are any other elements as effectively to the scoring however Vegas has spotted: there are six video games in Week 7 with an Over/Under beneath 42 (six touchdowns, plus a a hit XP on each and every one, 3 in step with staff in step with sport!) and 11 video games with a complete of 45 or beneath. There are best 13 video games this week, so do not financial institution on a ton of scoring this week both.

You can take a look at all of my alternatives at SportsLine, the place you can additionally get alternatives from other experts like R.J. White.

To the best bets! 

Both those groups are coming off tricky losses in Week 6. The Buccaneers had been with courtesy knowledgeable by way of Detroit they don’t belong with the higher echelon of NFC groups, whilst Atlanta were given passed Desmond Ridder’s first house loss in both faculty or the professionals courtesy of the Commanders. Now Atlanta is going at the highway for a divisional matchup in opposition to an elite run protection that merely items a foul matchup. Tampa has an excellent protection and is elite at preventing the run because of Vita Vea’s inside presence. Only the Eagles have greater than 70 rush yards in opposition to them. Atlanta hasn’t run the ball in addition to Arthur Smith needs, so lets see a ton of Ridder go makes an attempt right here. Atlanta is a “run funnel” which is ok for Tampa, because the Bucs can not run the ball anyway. This could be a Baker Mayfield/Mike Evans blowup spot. Obviously this select adjustments if Baker is out this week, even supposing he wasn’t at the harm record on Wednesday (hand) so I’m now not thinking about him suiting up.

Since Tom Brady left, issues have long past downhill for the Patriots. Bill Belichick is feeling warmth internally and externally. Underrated all over all of it’s how badly the Bills were thumping New England within the wake of the GOAT departing. The two groups have squared off seven instances since Brady flew south in loose company (together with one playoff sport) and the consequences are decidedly one-sided.

That’s 6-1 Bills when you’re now not nice at studying tables, and if I used to be losing an asterisk on a sport it would not be the playoff matchup, it will be the lone Patriots win, which came about all over the notorious “MNF” “Wind Game” that featured Belichick appearing up for his pregame interview dressed in a Navy soccer masks (it was once 2021 in spite of everything) and 32 consecutive operating performs known as by way of the Pats. Even Josh Allen’s rocket arm was once neutralized by way of the elements. Buffalo is an enormous favourite right here, however I’m now not certain it issues all that a lot, given the state of the Patriots. New England can not run the ball or go the ball and accidents have derailed the protection, which ranks simply 14th in DVOA (the offense is twenty ninth). Buffalo is a top-tier staff and Sean McDermott is not afraid to flex on a divisional opponent. With the Bills coming off a slim prime-time victory in opposition to the Giants, I be expecting them to be very competitive for 60 mins in New England on Sunday.

Like Buffalo, Seattle may be coming off a “meh” efficiency remaining week — a 17-13 loss to the Bengals, and just like the Bills, the Seahawks are a touchdown-plus favourite in Week 7. They’re getting a divisional matchup in opposition to a “frisky” opponent within the Cardinals … however they could be a bit of undervalued right here. The Cardinals’ friskiness is being chatted about on account of preseason expectancies, however they have quietly been drubbed the remaining 3 weeks, shedding by way of greater than two touchdowns in all 3 weeks whilst failing to hide. If issues broke its manner, Arizona can have began 3-0 however there was once little question in regards to the result of the remaining 3 video games. Now they get a Seahawks protection this is tops within the league in opposition to the run by way of DVOA. A foul Cardinals protection and an explosive Seattle offense, plus that run-stuffing attainable most likely turns Josh Dobbs and this offense right into a one-dimensional assault, which is a foul recipe for Arizona. 

Detroit Hype City is an actual factor — the Lions are getting BUZZ at the moment. It’s relating to they are lacking David Montgomery and on a second-straight highway sport, however I’m now not certain it will be surprising to look a number of Lions jerseys within the stands come Sunday. Baltimore fanatics may not no-show this or anything else, however there were a TON of Lions fans in Tampa last weekend. The videos from “Ford Field South” are just insane. 

Two weeks in the past, on a Thursday, there have been various Lions fanatics in Green Bay too. These are passionate fanatics who’ve submit with a LOT of dangerous soccer for the remaining a number of a long time. If my favourite soccer fan stunk my complete existence and all at once was once excellent like this, you’ll guess I’d be excited by seeing each and every sport I may. Baltimore is (roughly) at the manner house and (roughly) a brief commute from Detroit. That’s now not essentially why I’m selecting Detroit, however I’m curious to look if it issues in Baltimore as effectively. Jared Goff is enjoying superior soccer presently, Amon-Ra St. Brown appears wholesome, Jameson Williams provides a deep danger and Detroit could be pressured to unharness Jahmyr Gibbs on this sport. Detroit’s protection must have the ability to get house on Lamar Jackson. This sport includes a general of simply 42.5, which means an anticipated rock combat. I’ll take the sector function with the extra well-rounded staff right here.

The 2021 Rams began a lot warmer than this yr’s squad, popping out of the gate 7-1. But that staff was once 12-1 to win the Super Bowl with an over/beneath of 10.5. This yr’s squad featured beneath reasonable expectancies and now sits at 3-3 with losses to the 49ers (best staff in soccer), Bengals (Joe Burrow must-win house primetime sport) and Eagles (an excellent soccer staff with a fantastic moment part defensive efficiency). The Steelers coming off their bye is problematic, however the Rams will have the ability to stay throwing the short hitters to Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua from Matthew Stafford, who is enjoying some remarkable soccer this season.