NFL Week 5 picks, best bets: Patriots steal one, Lions plaster Panthers, Desmond Ridder surprises

Tell you something: I didn’t be expecting to finally end up in Week 5 of the 2023 NFL season with an oversaturation of Taylor Swift/Travis Kelce in our lives. I’m now not hostile to any of the T Swift-Kelce stuff, however it is beautiful exhausting to not be no less than somewhat skeptical whilst you see “Sunday Night Football” that includes both/or of the fame couple on no less than each different business. 

“New Heights” — the Kelce Bros. wildly entertaining podcast — is the No. 1 podcast in all the global at the moment. Not simply sports activities podcasts, however out of all pods. That NEVER occurs with sports activities podcasts. 

Travis is doing an outrageous collection of advertisements to the purpose he were given known as “Mr. Pfizer” by means of Aaron Rodgers previous this week. Taylor has a film about her excursion popping out. And but, I will not be cynical about LOVE. On the opposite hand, we have not noticed a lot PDA, despite the fact that they had been noticed putting on each and every different just a little after that Week 3 win in Kansas City on the postgame celebration. 

ANYWHO … we are near to 1 / 4 of the way in which into the season and I’m now not 100% positive we all know all that a lot concerning the NFL. That’s now not peculiar however it is value noting — we will essentially classify 4 AFC groups (Chiefs, Bills, Dolphins, Ravens) as professional playoffs contenders barring damage. Their skill degree, plus how they have began, makes them really feel like excellent postseason bets. The wild playing cards get highly spiced after that. My sizzling take is we finally end up with two AFC South groups within the postseason.

The NFC is much more easy to this point: the Eagles and Cowboys are excellent and the 49ers are nice. The Lions could be nice too and their preseason worth looks as if a steal in comparison to present markets (-225). Everything else is a complete tossup.

It’s if truth be told more or less wild how an identical the 2 meetings are: two groups we preferred from the East status out, a dominant obtrusive workforce within the West rolling early, the North offering a relatively unexpected workforce out of the gate and the South being a sizzling mess the place you would not be stunned by means of any person popping out. 

Speaking of sizzling, my best bets stay beautiful heat (12-9 at the season) so let’s stay it rolling for Week 5. You can take a look at all of my alternatives at SportsLine and will see my complete Week 5 alternatives right here. I’ll be placing them in early within the week when I will and you can additionally get alternatives from different mavens like R.J. White.

Now onto the soccer alternatives. Let’s keep sizzling!

Remember when the Bills had been appreciated in opposition to the Dolphins closing week and no person may just work out why? This is similar scenario, albeit with a far much less explosive offense. The Texans are a excellent soccer workforce, previous than other people anticipated. But the Falcons don’t seem to be trash, although the effects the closing two weeks had been beautiful unhealthy. Desmond Ridder and Arthur Smith are at the sizzling seat to some extent, with other people in need of Taylor Heinicke and Smith’s play-calling no less than in query. I feel they leap again right here in a stunning spot at house as favorites and the protection presentations up in an enormous approach whilst Ridder strikes to 5-0 at house.

Lions (-9.5) vs. Panthers 

This is a natural mismatch: the Lions constructed this workforce within the trenches. Their stout offensive line will nullify the Panthers’ best defensive power (the road). And the Lions defensive position shall be a big-time drawback for the Panthers offensive line. Home-field merit is not essentially “a thing” how it was once in years previous however Ford Field shall be rocking with a number of Lions enthusiasts smelling blood within the water at 3-1 and in need of to look their workforce dominate at house contemporary off a mini-bye and a butt-kicking of the Packers. Jared Goff goes to get Jameson Williams again previous than anticipated, giving Detroit a vertical danger to head with the harsh beneath guns. 

Bills (-5.5) vs. Jaguars 

Jacksonville appeared as excellent as they have appeared all 12 months in opposition to Atlanta in London closing week. My worry here’s the timing of the go back and forth, with the Jaguars spending two weeks in London (albeit swapping motels and stadiums, which does make relatively of a distinction?) and the Bills coming over on brief relaxation. But the Bills are getting sizzling on the proper time and I’m now not positive they are going to be bogged down a ton by means of a Jaguars protection this is wonderful however now not nice. The Tottenham turf ended in 48+ issues each instances closing 12 months so search for the over right here too. And if the Jags and Bills get into a large shootout I’m now not positive the Jags can stay up. 

Steelers (+4.5) vs. Ravens 

Gross, gross, gross. The Steelers had been horrible, specifically on offense, because of Matt Canada. Sheil Kapadia of The Athletic (and good friend of the Pick Six Pod) has one of the implausible stats/streaks working:

If the Steelers do not achieve 400 yards this week, they will be FORTY GAMES with out doing it. And perhaps they hit that milestone. There’s a possibility this can be a Mitch Trubisky-led workforce given the Kenny Pickett damage scenario, despite the fact that it sounds as if Pickett is getting ready to play. Regardless, Canada is below such insane hearth, he has to mainly unharness the kitchen sink in a large house competition recreation. No one needs to again the Steelers right here in any respect at the moment, the Ravens glance a lot better, indisputably. But that is the AFC North’s ugliest combat and it normally finally ends up inside of 3 issues, so I’m prepared to take that gamble. 

More gross! The Pats glance terrible at the moment and Mac Jones was once “benched” closing week in opposition to the Cowboys. He wasn’t in reality, regardless that, and Bill Belichick can cook dinner up a excellent sufficient defensive gameplan in opposition to a dull Saints offense the place the Patriots will most effective want like 17 issues to win the sport. I’m banking relatively at the Saints trotting out Derek Carr once more this week. If they did it closing week, why would not they once more in Week 5? Alvin Kamara stuck 13 passes for 33 yards and Carr tried 37 passes for 127 yards. The Buccaneers have an excellent protection but when the Saints do not to find one thing extra, the Patriots will chokehold them like they did the Jets two weeks in the past.