NFL Week 3 picks, odds, best bets: Patriots extend win streak vs. Jets to 15, Texans cover vs. Jaguars

I’ve by no means had two pushes on best bets, however that is what came about in Week 2. In truth, each got here as backdoor pushes. Thankfully they were not backdoor covers. The Minnesota Vikings misplaced by means of precisely six issues to the Philadelphia Eagles, whilst the Carolina Panthers had a garbage-time landing to lose by means of precisely 3 issues to the New Orleans Saints.

This week is other as a result of we now have some giant favorites. No group has been a double-digit favourite this season, however we now have 3 this week (4 in the event you come with a 9.5-point unfold we will be able to discuss in a while). Also, regulate street groups. They are 19-13 immediately up, and 19-10-3 in opposition to the unfold this season. 

Here’s a have a look at what I’m considering this week. As at all times, credit to the CBS Sports analysis group for making me sound sensible. 

All odds come courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook

Top 5 alternatives ATS report: 3-5-2
Overall ATS report: 14-16-2
Straight up report: 16-16

2022 Overall ATS report: 135-129-8
2022 Straight up report: 177-92-3

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

The Patriots are one of the crucial higher 0-2 groups within the NFL, and so they want this matchup with the Jets. You see, New England has received 14 immediately video games in opposition to the Jets, and is 5-0 ATS within the remaining 5 conferences. With the quantity this low, I’ll take Mac Jones and the Patriots to rebound.

New York has averaged 10.9 issues in keeping with recreation right through this 14-game shedding streak, whilst Zach Wilson has thrown two touchdowns when compared to seven interceptions in his 4 begins vs. Bill Belichick. It’s true that the Jets have a cast roster all-around, however the offensive line has struggled. If the Patriots can close down the Jets’ run recreation just like the Dallas Cowboys did in Week 2, they will have to emerge victorious. 

If the Patriots lose this recreation, it will be the first time since Belichick’s first season as New England’s head trainer that the Pats began 0-3. 

The pick out: Patriots -2.5
Projected rating: Patriots 17-13

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)

Call this a intestine feeling. Per BR betting, the Jaguars have by no means lined as a house favourite within the Trevor Lawrence generation. They will have to be appreciated in opposition to the winless Texans, however now not just about double digits. Lawrence is 1-3 vs. Houston in his younger occupation, and used to be appreciated in all 3 of the ones losses. The Jags’ Week 17 win in Houston remaining yr snapped a NINE-GAME shedding streak to the Texans. Nine video games! Plus, the Texans are 5-0 of their remaining 5 street divisional video games. 

Houston has misplaced either one of its first two video games this yr by means of double digits, however C.J. Stroud inspired me remaining week vs. the Indianapolis Colts. He finished 30 of 47 passes for 384 yards and two touchdowns, and is slingin’ the rock at a borderline historical price. He ranks height 5 in maximum passing makes an attempt (91), completions (58) and passing yards (626) thru two occupation video games since 1970 (all maximum amongst avid gamers with 0 INT). Houston can stay it shut. 

The pick out: Texans +9
Projected rating: Jaguars 24-16

Who wins Jaguars vs. Texans in Week 3 of the 2023 NFL season, and which aspect of the unfold holds the entire worth? Check out how SportsLine’s projection model is leaning for the AFC South showdown.

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

I’m having a difficult time working out the Seahawks. They had been disappointed by means of the Los Angeles Rams in Week 1 at house, however then marched right into a raucous Ford Field with out their two beginning offensive tackles and disappointed the Detroit Lions in time beyond regulation. I have not had a difficult time working out the Panthers, alternatively. That offense has struggled. 

Bryce Young is a rookie who has performed simply two NFL games, and he hasn’t proven what he is in a position to as a quarterback simply but. So why now not check out to make some cash off that as he travels to the West Coast to play in a opposed setting? Young has averaged the third-fewest yards in keeping with try (4.2) by means of any quarterback of their first two occupation video games in NFL historical past, and the offense is tied for remaining in scoring (27 overall issues). Plus, this Panthers protection is down Jaycee Horn and now Shaq Thompson

The pick out: Seahawks -6
Projected rating: Seahawks 26-16

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)

Bears basic supervisor Ryan Poles most definitely had the worst thirty eighth birthday of all time. First, his quarterback, Justin Fields, relatively known as out the training team of workers for Chicago’s early-season struggles (as he will have to), then, defensive coordinator Alan Williams formally resigned, which led to wild hypothesis on social media. This group does not seem to be at the identical web page presently, and this weekend, the Bears have to shuttle to Kansas City to take at the reigning Super Bowl champions.

Now, Fields and Co. may regroup and are available out preventing, or, issues may worsen beneath Matt Eberflus and Luke Getsy. I believe Sunday goes to be extra of a birthday party for Chiefs fanatics as they welcome the returns of Travis Kelce and Chris Jones, who each neglected the season opener.

On the topic of Fields, he surely has an inside clock factor and isn’t throwing to open extensive receivers. But on height of that, his offensive line hasn’t been constant and left take on Braxton Jones simply were given put on injured reserve. I believe the most important downside, alternatively, is how Fields is getting used.

His reasonable cross duration has been lower in part from remaining season (9.1 to 4.5). Fields is averaging 2.0 designed rushes in keeping with recreation (4.9 remaining season), 19% of his passing makes an attempt have had 10+ air yards (38% remaining season), 8% of his passing makes an attempt have come outdoor the pocket (26% remaining season) and 11% of passing makes an attempt have come off of play motion (34% remaining season). Fields is not polished and surely has some paintings to do, however for my part, announcing he is the downside is a lazy take. Either manner, I don’t need to again the Bears presently. 

The pick out: Chiefs -12.5
Projected rating: Chiefs 34-21

Monday, 7:15 p.m. ET (ABC, fubo)

This is the lone matchup between two undefeated groups this week, and the primary assembly between those two squads since Jalen Hurts misplaced to Tom Brady within the 2021 wild card spherical. You may make a case there is a little bit of a revenge-game issue right here.

The Bucs’ 2-0 get started is spectacular, however the Vikings and Bears have not precisely been world-beaters early on. The Eagles are the best opponent they have got confronted to this point — although Philly hasn’t precisely performed A+ ball. However, that during itself will have to have Eagles fanatics constructive about the remainder of the season. 

Maybe bettors are expecting an overly shut matchup, however understand that the Buccaneers are 2-12 ATS in prime-time video games since 2020. That’s the worst report within the NFL in that span.

The pick out: Eagles -5
Projected rating: Eagles 24-17

Other Week 3 alternatives

49ers (-10) 30-18 over Giants
Dolphins (-6.5) 30-23 over Broncos
Ravens (-7.5) 26-17 over Colts
Bills 24-21 over Commanders (+6.5)
Chargers (PICK) 28-27 over Vikings
Packers (-2) 23-20 over Saints
Titans (+3.5) 13-10 over Browns
Falcons (+3) 29-23 over Lions
Cowboys (-12) 30-14 over Cardinals
Steelers (+2.5) 26-21 over Raiders
Rams (+2.5) 25-20 over Bengals

SportsLine’s projection style is up greater than $7,000 for $100 avid gamers on top-rated NFL alternatives since its inception. The style enters Week 3 of the 2023 NFL season on an improbable 164-117 run on top-rated NFL alternatives that dates to the 2017 season.