NFL Week 11 picks: Eagles upset Chiefs in Super Bowl rematch, Browns beat Steelers in AFC North showdown

The NFL has been scheduling bye weeks since 1990 and after 33 years, I feel we will after all hand out the award for easiest bye week ever and that award is going to Travis Kelce. 

I do not essentially know what qualifies as the most productive bye week ever, however I believe like taking a three-day commute to Argentina needs to be at the checklist. Also, let’s now not omit that Kelce flew the entire means there simply to hang around with an Eagles fan, which is moderately suspicious as a result of his Chiefs are PLAYING the Eagles this week. 

I do not know if Taylor Swift can be on the sport on Monday, but when she displays up, she may need to borrow a type of cut up jerseys that Donna Kelce wears each time the Eagles and Chiefs play each and every different. The Super Bowl rematch between the Eagles and Chiefs is surely the most important sport of the week. So who is going to win? Let’s get to the selections and in finding out. 

Actually, earlier than we get to the Week 11 selections, here is a fast reminder that you’ll be able to take a look at the weekly selections from each CBSSports.com NFL knowledgeable via clicking right here. In totally unrelated news, I’m in rate of the NFL publication right here at CBSSports.com, which I’m simplest telling you about as a result of it is the very best present for the vacations. If you wish to have to shop for anyone a present, however you do not if truth be told need to put money into them, simply subscribe them to the publication. It’s the present that assists in keeping on giving. All you must do is click on right here and input their e mail deal with. 

I’ve spent 11 weeks asking you to enroll in that publication and if you have not carried out it but, I will have to almost definitely simply think it is not going to occur. And that is alright. Even if you do not enroll, I nonetheless love you and you continue to get my selections. 

NFL Week 11 selections

Cincinnati (5-4) at Baltimore (7-3)

8:15 p.m. ET (Amazon Prime)

If the Bengals and Ravens get right into a pregame scuffle on Thursday, it is almost definitely as a result of they are arguing about who had the worst loss in Week 10. 

On one hand, now we have the Bengals, who forgot to turn up for the primary 3 quarters in opposition to the Texans, however then nonetheless in some way virtually received the sport earlier than shedding 30-27 on a last-second box function. 

On the opposite hand, now we have the Ravens, who misplaced a sport they’d no industry shedding. The Ravens have been beating the Browns 31-17 with beneath 10 mins left to play in the fourth quarter, they usually in some way controlled to blow that lead in a 33-31 loss. 

The proven fact that the Ravens blew a fourth quarter lead is mildly regarding and that’s the reason as a result of they appear to do it each different week. If an NFL sport was once simplest 3 quarters lengthy, the Ravens can be undefeated and they’d have received the previous 5 Super Bowls, however sadly, Roger Goodell hates the Ravens, which is why video games are 4 quarters lengthy. 

So how dangerous have issues gotten for the Ravens? This dangerous.  

For no matter explanation why, all of the workforce turns out to soften down every time they have got a large lead in the fourth quarter and that begins with Lamar Jackson. Since the beginning of the 2021 season, Jackson has 13 touchdowns and 13 turnovers in the fourth quarter (to place that in viewpoint, Joe Burrow has 25 touchdowns and 11 turnovers). Jackson has been even worse when the Ravens have the lead over that span with simply 5 touchdowns and 8 turnovers. He additionally has a QB ranking of simply 60.7 in video games since 2021 the place the Ravens have a fourth quarter lead, which is the worst ranking in the NFL for any QB who has a minimum of 20 makes an attempt in that state of affairs. 

With the ones stats, it could be simple to pin this all on Jackson, however the protection has additionally been disappearing. If the Ravens get started enjoying the fourth quarter like they play the primary 3 quarters, this workforce can be just about unimaginable to beat. 

These two groups performed again in Week 2 with the Ravens beating the Bengals 27-24, however it is onerous to learn an excessive amount of into that sport, as a result of Joe Burrow was once mainly enjoying on one leg at that time. That being mentioned, I’m absolutely anticipating any other one rating sport this time round. 

If the Bengals lose on Thursday, that is going to actually kill any shot they have got of successful AFC North, which is why I feel we will see them in desperation mode. I’m mildly involved at the truth that the Bengals have misplaced 13 STRAIGHT highway prime-time video games, however no person has been higher than Burrow at finishing those unpleasant franchise shedding streaks and I’ll say he ends any other one on Thursday. To convey this pick out complete circle, I’ll pass forward and say the Ravens blow a fourth quarter lead and the Bengals win on a box function. 

The pick out: Bengals 23-20 over Ravens

If you wish to have a extra analytical way for your NFL picks, then I extremely counsel that you simply take a look at the SportsLine Projection Model, which has been on fireplace this 12 months. Check it out if you wish to know which aspect to guess for each sport in Week 11.

Pittsburgh (6-3) at Cleveland (6-3)

1 p.m. ET (CBS)

For the primary 10 weeks of the season, the Steelers offense was once so dangerous that I used to be beginning to suppose that their easiest offensive technique can be to only now not have an offense in any respect. I do not know how that might have labored, but it surely definitely would had been an improve from what they have been doing. 

Over the previous two weeks regardless that, the Steelers offense has slowly been getting higher and I’m lovely certain it is taking place on account of two giant adjustments the workforce made. First, they moved offensive coordinator Matt Canada all the way down to the sideline, which has been a well-liked determination thus far in the locker room. 

The different giant alternate that the Steelers have made is that they have taken the offense out of Kenny Pickett’s palms. I’m guessing that after Canada set out to the sideline, he after all had a entrance row seat to what was once taking place on offense and he straight away learned that Pickett was once in excess of his head. 

How do you repair that? By taking the sport out of his palms. Over the previous two weeks, the Steelers have run the ball 55.5% of the time, which is lovely wild you believe that they have been simplest working the ball 39.5% of the time in the course of the first 8 weeks of the season. 

The Steelers have totally modified their offensive philosophy and it has utterly labored thus far. Over the previous two weeks, they have recorded their two perfect speeding totals of the season and they have received each video games. Their new formulation for successful video games is understated: They run the ball, they play just right protection after which they hope they do not get caught in a state of affairs the place they have got to rely on Pickett to win the sport for them. 

As just right as this plan has been, I don’t believe it will paintings in opposition to the Browns. The Browns had been one of the crucial easiest groups in the NFL at preventing the run and in the event that they forestall the run on Sunday, the Steelers are going to have a difficult time shifting the ball. 

Back in Week 2, the Steelers beat the Browns 26-22, however they were given two defensive touchdowns they usually nonetheless simplest received via 4 issues. If they get two defensive touchdowns once more, I feel they win, however that is almost definitely now not going to occur. The Steelers had been out-gained in each sport they have performed this season and I absolutely be expecting that streak to proceed in Week 11. 

The pick out: Browns 24-17 over Steelers

Arizona (2-8) at Houston (5-4)

1 p.m. ET (CBS)

We’re simplest 10 weeks into the season and I’m lovely certain that C.J. Stroud has already locked up the offensive rookie of the 12 months award, so let’s speak about one thing larger: MVP. 

It’s now not simple for a rookie to win MVP, but it surely seems like Stroud is now in the dialog after main a game-winning pressure in each and every of the previous two weeks. If Stroud have been in some way ready to win MVP this 12 months, it could be ancient. You can rely on one hand how time and again a rookie has received the MVP. Actually, you’ll be able to rely on one finger. Jim Brown is the one rookie to have received the award. He did it in 1957, and because then, just one rookie has even completed in the top-3 of balloting during the last 35 years (Randy Moss in 1998). 

Stroud is doing issues that learners virtually by no means do. Not simplest is he striking up massive numbers, however he isn’t making very many errors. With 2,626 passing yards and simply two interceptions, Stroud has the fourth-most passing yards in NFL historical past via a QB with two or fewer interceptions via 9 video games (And we aren’t speaking about simply learners right here, we are speaking about each NFL QB ever). 

The Texans rookie QB has additionally been seize. Not simplest has he led two game-winning drives during the last two weeks, however over the process the season, he is thrown for 306 yards and 3 touchdowns with 0 interceptions in the fourth quarter of Houston’s one-score video games this 12 months. 

As just right as Stroud has been, he will get a check this week from a Cardinals protection that has been unusually just right in opposition to the go. The Cardinals offense additionally simply were given a spice up with the go back of Kyler Murray in Week 10. The offense additionally were given a spice up since the Cardinals remembered you might be allowed to throw the ball  for your tight finish (Trey McBride completed with 131 yards in Week 10, turning into the primary Cardinals tight finish to hit the 100-yard mark SINCE 1989). 

The Texans misplaced to the Panthers two weeks in the past, so an upset right here in opposition to a frisky Cardinals workforce would not be a complete surprise, however I’ll say they win due to any other game-winning pressure from Stroud. 

The pick out: Texans 27-24 over Cardinals

Minnesota (6-4) at Denver (4-5)

8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)

The NFL determined to stay this because the Sunday night time sport for Week 11, and I’ve to mention, I applaud the league’s determination, if simplest as it implies that everybody in America gets a possibility to observe “The Passtronaut” in motion. 

If anyone ever made a soccer film a few quarterback who is additionally an astronaut, it could surely be referred to as “The Passtronaut” and it could surely celebrity Josh Dobbs. I’m 99.8% certain that he’s the one QB in NFL historical past who has ever been given a nickname via NASA and as everyone knows, if NASA provides you with a nickname, everybody has to begin the usage of it on you, so “The Passtronaut” it’s.

I do not know how Dobbs has carried out it, however he is received two instantly video games for the Vikings, which is borderline superb while you believe that right now two weeks in the past, he wasn’t even enjoying for them. As an issue of reality, two weeks in the past he was once enjoying for the Cardinals and he were instructed via his head trainer that he would not be traded. However, since there’s no loyalty in the NFL, Dobbs was once long gone lower than 24 hours later. 

I believed the Vikings season was once over when Justin Jefferson were given injured, however they survived. I believed the Vikings season was once over when Kirk Cousins were given injured, however they survived. Now, they have got Josh Dobbs and I’m 60% certain he will cause them to the playoffs. 

Dobbs can have an enormous sport in opposition to the Broncos. Not simplest is Denver getting into this sport off a brief week after enjoying on Monday night time, however the Broncos even have one of the crucial worst defenses in the NFL. They’ve surrendered essentially the most issues according to sport, essentially the most speeding yards according to sport and essentially the most general yards according to sport heading into Week 11. That’s the opposite triple crown that you simply by no means need to win.

That being mentioned, one of the best ways to beat this Broncos workforce is via working the ball and I’m now not certain the Vikings are in a position to doing that. However, I’m certain this can be an in depth sport. Of Minnesota’s 10 video games this season, 9 of them had been determined via one rating and this almost definitely would possibly not be any other. 

The pick out: Broncos 20-17 over Vikings

Philadelphia (8-1) at Kansas City (7-2)

8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)

This sport may set the Monday night time report for many audience and that’s the reason as a result of we are getting a Super Bowl rematch that comes to Taylor Swift’s two favourite groups. If simply 50% of Swift’s fanatics track in on Monday, there can be 179 million folks staring at. 

Swift grew up an Eagles fan, however she’s now courting a Chiefs participant, so I do not know who she will root for, even if in accordance with the video under, I’ve to suppose she desires the Chiefs to win via 100. 

Since you might be now questioning, I do not know if Taylor can be on the sport. Although Eagles nook Darius Slay does now not need her to wait, she may theoretically make it occur. After a live performance on Nov. 19 in Brazil, she does not have any other display till Nov. 24, so if she seems like leaping on a 12-hour flight, she may get to the sport on Monday night time. 

If you might be buddies with Taylor and her plans, please let me know what she’s going to take action I will make an educated pick out for this sport. The Chiefs are 4-0 when Taylor displays up and Travis Kelce has submit monstrous numbers in each and every sport that she attends, however he hasn’t been as just right when she does not display up (Kelce is averaging 108 yards according to sport with Taylor in attendance as opposed to simply 41.3 yards according to sport when she’s now not there). 

When those two groups met in Super Bowl LVII, the Chiefs received 38-35, however I don’t believe we will be seeing any other shootout and that’s the reason most commonly since the Chiefs have one of the crucial easiest defenses in the NFL this 12 months. No one can rating at the Chiefs (they have given up the second-fewest issues according to sport) and no person can go at the Chiefs (they have surrendered the fourth-fewest passing yards according to sport). 

The just right news for the Eagles is if they are able to’t throw the ball at the Chiefs, they are able to merely flip to their speeding assault, which is striking up just about 130 yards according to sport. The greatest factor with the Eagles this 12 months is that Jalen Hurts has appeared hobbled, however he’s going to be coming off a bye right here, this means that that his knee may have had two weeks to heal heading into this sport. 

The Chiefs are coming off a bye and I’ve NEVER picked in opposition to Andy Reid coming off a bye and I’m almost definitely going to be apologetic about this straight away, however I just like the Eagles in an upset (Reid is 21-3 in his regular-season profession coming off a bye). If someone can outsmart Reid coming off a bye, it is Nick Sirianni, who has NEVER misplaced a regular-season sport coming off a bye. Sure, he is simplest 2-0, however the Eagles did win each the ones video games via double digits. 

The pick out: Eagles 27-24 over Chiefs

NFL Week 11 selections: All the remaining

Chargers 31-21 over Packers
Lions 31-17 over Bears
Dolphins 30-20 over Raiders
Commanders 27-17 over Giants
Cowboys 34-16 over Panthers
Jaguars 24-17 over Titans
49ers 34-20 over Buccaneers
Bills 24-16 over Jets
Rams 27-20 over Seahawks (If Matthew Stafford performs)
Seahawks 24-13 over Rams (If Matthew Stafford DOESN’T play)

BYES: Colts, Patriots, Falcons, Saints

Last Week

Best pick out: Last week, I predicted that the Raiders would beat the Jets in an in depth sport and wager what came about? The Raiders beat the Jets in an in depth sport. Now, did I do know that Zach Wilson was once going to throw a back-breaking interception overdue in the sport that was once necessarily going to price his workforce any likelihood of successful? Of path, I did. When Wilson performs, you’ll be able to just about rely at the reality that he is going to devote a minimum of one back-breaking turnover and he got here via with that in the fourth quarter in opposition to the Raiders. Although I wasn’t stunned via the interception, I used to be stunned via what came about subsequent: The participant who picked Wilson off (Robert Spillane) made a child announcement right through his postgame interview. 

I’m now rooting for the Spillanes to call the child Zach Wilson Spillane. 

Worst pick out: For some explanation why, I picked the Patriots to win in Germany final week even supposing they are able to slightly win video games in the United States and that call surely blew up in my face. Not simplest did the Patriots lose, however we may have if truth be told witnessed a complete meltdown via Bill Belichick. At one level in the sport, he determined to not put a punt returner at the box, which surely backfired on him. He additionally benched his beginning quarterback with two mins left to play, which additionally backfired on him. The whole season is backfiring on him, and but, I nonetheless picked his workforce to win. I deserved that loss. 

Finally, if you happen to guys have ever questioned which groups I’m if truth be told just right at choosing, here is a fast take a look at my easiest and worst groups relating to selections this 12 months. 

Teams I’m 9-1 choosing this 12 months (Straight up): Giants, Panthers (8-1), Packers (8-1), Jets (8-1)
Longest successful streak: Chargers and Jaguars (Four instantly wins)

Teams I’m 1-8 choosing this 12 months (Straight up): Titans, Texans 
Longest shedding streak: Texans (Eight instantly losses)

Every different workforce is someplace in the center. 

Picks Record

Straight up in Week 10: 7-7
SU general: 90-60 (2-16 choosing the Titans and Texans, 88-43 choosing everybody else)

Against the unfold in Week 10: 6-6-2
ATS general: 72-72-6

You can in finding John Breech on Facebook or (*11*) and if he isn’t doing a type of issues, he is almost definitely tweeting at Taylor Swift to determine whether or not she will the Chiefs-Eagles sport.