The Week 1 NFL schedule is full of revenge games, from Baker Mayfield facing the Browns to Russell Wilson returning to Seattle. Jaguars vs. Commanders is also a revenge game, as Washington quarterback Carson Wentz will face former coach Doug Pederson. It will be the first matchup between Wentz and Pederson since the two left Philadelphia, and Washington is a three-point favorite in the latest Week 1 NFL odds at Caesars Sportsbook. That game is among the seven boasting NFL spreads of a field goal or less. On the other hand, just one game, Colts vs. Texans (+8), has a line of more than a touchdown in the NFL Vegas odds. All of the Week 1 NFL lines are listed below, and SportsLine’s advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and predictions you need to make the best Week 1 NFL picks now.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up over $7,500 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters the 2022 NFL season on an incredible 138-97 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. Amazingly, it hasn’t missed a top-rated pick since Week 15 last season.
The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 1 NFL odds from Caesars and locked in picks for every NFL matchup. Head here to see every pick.
Top Week 1 NFL predictions
One of the top Week 1 NFL predictions the model recommends: The Vikings (+2) cover against the Packers in well over 50 percent of simulations. Minnesota has both won and covered in two of its last three games of this divisional-rivalry. Additionally, the Vikings were 2-1 as home underdogs last year, while the Packers were 2-3 as road favorites.
The Vikings have continuity with their key offensive parts and also will get back tight end Irv Smith Jr., who missed all of last year. On the other hand, Green Bay is working in several new receivers and Aaron Rodgers has publicly called out many of his young wideouts. The model has Green Bay’s top two receivers, Allen Lazard and Christian Watson, failing to combine for as many yards as star WR Justin Jefferson has himself. SportsLine’s advanced model projects the Vikings (+1.5) to cover at home well over 50 percent of the time. See who else to back here.
Another one of its Week 1 NFL predictions: The Colts (-8) cover the spread on the road versus the Texans. One of Houston’s many weaknesses last year was its run defense, which ranked 31st. That porous defense was a major reason why Jonathan Taylor was the rushing king, as he gained 145 yards versus Houston in Week 6 and another 143 in Week 13. The model modestly projects Taylor to have just 110 yards, but it also has Colts quarterback Matt Ryan throwing for nearly 250 yards and two touchdowns.
After scoring a total of three points in the two games against Indy in 2021, the model has Houston reaching double-digits in Week 1. That won’t be enough versus a Colts team forecasted to top its season average of 26.5 points per game from a year ago. SportsLine’s model has Indianapolis winning by double-digits and covering as eight-point favorites in almost 60 percent of simulations. See which other teams to pick here.
How to make Week 1 NFL picks
The model has also made the call on who wins and covers in every other game on the Week 1 NFL schedule, and it’s calling for a Super Bowl contender to go down hard. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine.
So what NFL picks can you make with confidence? And which Super Bowl contender goes down hard? Check out the latest NFL odds below, then visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned over $7,500 since its inception, and find out.
Week 1 NFL odds, lines, spreads
Get full NFL picks at SportsLine
Thursday, Sept. 8
Rams at Bills (+2.5, 53)
Featured Game | Los Angeles Rams vs. Buffalo Bills
Sunday, Sept. 11
Ravens at Jets (+7, 44.5)
Featured Game | New York Jets vs. Baltimore Ravens
Browns at Panthers (-1.5, 41.5)
Featured Game | Carolina Panthers vs. Cleveland Browns
Colts at Texans (+8, 44)
Featured Game | Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts
Jaguars at Commanders (-3. 44)
Featured Game | Washington Commanders vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Patriots at Dolphins (-2.5, 45)
Featured Game | Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots
Saints at Falcons (+5.5, 42.5)
Featured Game | Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints
Eagles at Lions (+4, 48.5)
Featured Game | Detroit Lions vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Steelers at Bengals (-6.5, 44.5)
Featured Game | Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
49ers at Bears (+7, 42)
Featured Game | Chicago Bears vs. San Francisco 49ers
Packers at Vikings (+2, 48)
Featured Game | Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers
Chiefs at Cardinals (+3.5, 53)
Featured Game | Arizona Cardinals vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Raiders at Chargers (-3.5, 52)
Featured Game | Los Angeles Chargers vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Giants at Titans (-5.5, 44)
Featured Game | Tennessee Titans vs. New York Giants
Buccaneers at Cowboys (+1.5, 50)
Featured Game | Dallas Cowboys vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Monday, Sept. 12
Broncos at Seahawks (+6, 41.5)
Featured Game | Seattle Seahawks vs. Denver Broncos