It additionally largely backed up the pondering of final week’s Washington Post bracket projection. Not everybody was on the suitable line, however the prime 16 seeds in that train had been the identical groups the committee tabbed a couple of days later.
A couple of fast takeaways, that are price no less than retaining in thoughts a bit as Selection Sunday attracts nearer.
The Big 12’s profiles are smiled upon: All three groups that had been underseeded in final week’s projection got here from the Big 12. The committee pegged Kansas because the final of the No. 1 seeds (as an alternative of the most effective of the No. 2 seeds), whereas Iowa State and Kansas State each landed on the No. 3 line moderately than as No. 4 seeds.
The single-best rationalization? High-end victories. Kansas is 14-5 in Quadrant 1 video games, whereas Iowa State is 8-8 in these contests. The solely different groups with eight Quad 1 triumphs coming into Tuesday had been Big 12 brethren Texas (9-6) and Baylor (9-7), in addition to Big Ten chief Purdue (9-4). Meanwhile, Kansas State is 7-6 in Quad 1 video games, a sturdy displaying.
The Big East’s profiles may not be price as a lot as anticipated: Both Marquette and Xavier had been slotted as No. 4 seeds moderately than No. 3s, although in protection of final week’s effort, the Musketeers hadn’t but misplaced to Marquette. Connecticut, a metrics darling largely as a result of of the way it plowed by means of nonconference play, wasn’t even talked about (although it’s arduous to think about the Huskies as a lot decrease than a No. 5 seed for now).
All three of these groups have effective résumés — plenty sufficient high quality victories, respectable information away from dwelling and just one remotely questionable loss apiece (Connecticut at dwelling towards St. John’s, Marquette at dwelling towards Wisconsin and Xavier at DePaul). Don’t be shocked if one of them finally ends up as a No. 3 seed come March 12. More than one, although, is a stretch.
Be cautious of predictive metrics: There are six rankings included within the NCAA crew sheets — two results-based numbers, three predictive measures and the NET. Teams like Kansas State and Virginia had noticeably higher results-based numbers and wound up on the No. 3 line. UCLA, Tennessee and Connecticut veered the opposite approach and possibly wound up a bit decrease than anticipated. (UCLA coach Mick Cronin, particularly, was a bit miffed).
In different phrases, be cautious about inserting an excessive amount of inventory in issues like KenPom rankings, the Sagarin scores and ESPN’s BPI metric closely shaping the seeding of the sphere. That’s good recommendation at any time, particularly so near Selection Sunday.
Last 4 included: Southern California, West Virginia, Mississippi State, Wisconsin
First 4 on the surface: New Mexico, Penn State, Utah State, North Carolina
Next 4 on the surface: Michigan, Texas Tech, Arizona State, Virginia Tech
Moving in: Kentucky, Samford, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, UC Irvine, Wisconsin
Moving out: Furman, New Mexico, North Carolina, Northwestern State, UC Santa Barbara
Conference name: Big Ten (9), Big 12 (8), SEC (8), ACC (5), Big East (5), Mountain West (3), Pac-12 (3), American Athletic (2), West Coast (2)
Bracket projection: South vs. West; Midwest vs. East
Rutgers collected a helpful victory Saturday at Wisconsin. Now, the Scarlet Knights get two extra video games towards Big Ten groups scrambling to get into the sphere: Thursday at dwelling towards Michigan and Sunday at Penn State. Triumphs can be doubly helpful, solidifying their place whereas hurting different groups across the edge of the sphere. … Connecticut has quietly gained 4 of its final 5 and after Wednesday’s dwelling sport towards Providence closes with St. John’s, DePaul and Villanova. The Huskies may very well be on a roll heading into the Big East tournament. …
It’s wanting an increasing number of like Virginia will spend back-to-back March weekends in Greensboro. … Texas A&M has two Quad 4 losses (towards Murray State and Wofford), however every thing else in its profile seems good. The Aggies are within the prime 30 in all six metrics on the crew sheets and bolstered their résumé significantly with victories over Arkansas and Missouri final week.
Not that it particularly issues for bracketing functions, however Illinois has just one victory towards a crew within the prime half of the Big Ten standings (Feb. 11 towards Rutgers). … Max Abmas (bear in mind him from two years in the past?) and Oral Roberts are two video games away from an ideal run by means of the Summit League. It can be the second 18-0 league displaying within the Summit in as many seasons; South Dakota State went 18-0 final 12 months. …
Wisconsin is within the prime 50 within the results-based metrics and owns a 5-6 document in Quadrant 1 video games. Its solely remotely shaky loss is a Nov. 29 setback at dwelling towards Wake Forest, which sits at No. 77 within the NET — two spots shy of shifting the sport into Quadrant 2. The Badgers aren’t nice, however on paper they’re higher than a lot of the sting of the sphere. … For all Missouri has going for it, it will be smart for the Tigers to keep away from many extra 0-2 weeks. They acquired stomped at Auburn and fell at dwelling to Texas A&M final week.
One surefire takeaway from the committee’s bracket reveal is the respect Houston is rightfully accorded. The Cougars aren’t going to slide from the No. 1 line simply because of a random loss down the stretch. … Duke and Michigan State have had seven postseason conferences since 1994: Twice within the Final Four (1999 and 2015), as soon as within the Elite Eight (2019), twice within the Sweet 16 (2005 and 2013) and twice within the spherical of 32 (1994 and 2022). A primary-round encounter can be a brand-name blockbuster, even when neither program is having fun with a classic season. …
Tennessee’s No. 3 seed within the bracket reveal already factored in its victory over Alabama. It didn’t account for its second loss to Kentucky. The Volunteers stay on the No. 3 line, however they’re 2-4 because the calendar turned to February. … Auburn’s résumé is a house victory over Arkansas, a 43-42 defeat of Northwestern on a impartial ground and a bunch of Quadrant 2 triumphs. After Wednesday’s sport at Ole Miss, the Tigers shut at Kentucky and Alabama earlier than enjoying host to Tennessee. There’s nonetheless some work to do.
A prediction you’ll be able to take to the financial institution: The Northeast Conference winner will take part in a play-in sport for the eleventh consecutive tournament. The NEC has no groups within the prime 300 of the NET and no groups within the prime 270 of any of the six crew sheet metrics (Fairleigh Dickinson tops out at No. 271 in energy of document). … Miami is within the prime 15 of the results-based metrics on the crew sheet and thirty first within the NET. The Hurricanes in all probability aren’t far off from a No. 4 seed. …
College of Charleston was bumped as much as a No. 11 seed to permit a play-in sport on the No. 12 line. If there’s a mid-major crew with a gaudy document (at the moment 26-3) which may obtain some grace within the kind of a play-in sport invite (a la 2019 Belmont and 2021 Drake) in case of a convention title sport loss, the Cougars are in all probability it. … Kentucky doubled its Quadrant 1 victory whole final week by defeating Mississippi State in Starkville after which finishing a season sweep of Tennessee. The Wildcats aren’t within the clear but, however these outings will go a good distance in solidifying their postseason standing.