Tuesday, May 14, 2024

NBA fact or fiction after week one: Does James Harden improve Clippers title odds? Is Luka Doncic the MVP?



The NBA season is only a week previous, and there is already been no scarcity of drama and storylines. James Harden after all were given his want to be traded to the Clippers, Victor Wembanyama made his extremely expected debut and we have now already were given a number of avid gamers sitting out of video games for “rest”. It’s like the NBA by no means left. 

It’s nonetheless too early to make grand proclamations about maximum groups and avid gamers, however something is definite, the Denver Nuggets appear to be a respectable risk to copy as champions. The Celtics additionally appear to be they’ll coast via the Eastern Conference. But let me no longer get too forward of myself, with the first week in the books, let’s destroy down what we noticed from all the motion round the league and decide if it is fact or fiction. 

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James Harden considerably improves the Clippers title odds

Fact or fiction: Fiction

It’s no secret what Harden will give the Clippers on offense. He’s an automated scorer who can get to the free-throw line at will. He’s an elite facilitator, all you wish to have to take a look at is how he led the league in assists in line with recreation remaining season to turn out that time. He offers the Clippers any other participant who can fill it up from out of doors, making improvements to what used to be already the third-best 3-point capturing crew in the NBA a yr in the past. L.A.’s want for a lead guard who can start up the offense and calm issues down in tight scenarios has been a speaking level about this crew for years, and Harden can without a doubt supply that. When you take a look at the industry via that lens, you’ll see why the Clippers sought after to get this deal performed.

However, the quantity that L.A. gave as much as achieve Harden might burn them on the backend. Keeping Terance Mann used to be a plus, however shedding Robert Covington and Nicolas Batum, two forwards who give L.A. the versatility to play small ball when wanted alters the make-up of this crew on each ends of the ground. And in spite of Harden’s person good fortune all over his profession, each and every of his remaining two stops in Philadelphia and Brooklyn have not yielded a ton of crew good fortune. In fact, Harden in reality decreases L.A.’s championship odds, in keeping with projections from SportsLine knowledge scientist Stephen Oh: 

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Before Harden industry

46.7

57.0%

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74.7%

5.7%

2.6%

After Harden industry

46.0

56.1%

68.5%

4.1%

1.7%

Difference

-0.7

-0.9

-6.2%

-1.6%

-0.9%

The Clippers are a distinct crew than any Harden has performed with in the previous, however not anything about his earlier two stints suggests this can be the time he is helping elevate a crew to the NBA Finals.

Luka Doncic is the frontrunner for MVP

Fact or fiction: Fact

You may argue Nikola Jokic is in the lead for this award. You may additionally argue that Stephen Curry is up there too. But everyone knows that MVP is simply as a lot a narrative-based award as it’s merit-based, and to this point this season Doncic has led in each classes. Last season the Mavericks ignored the postseason fully after stringing in combination sufficient embarrassing wins and deciding — with two video games left in the season — to tank as a way to stay their draft pick out. It used to be a foul glance from a crew that simply went to the Western Conference finals in 2021. So to mention there used to be a vital quantity of drive on Dallas getting into this season to turn out remaining season used to be an exception is an underestimation. 

So some distance the Mavericks are 3-0, and in the ones video games, Doncic is averaging 39 facets, 11.7 rebounds and 9.7 assists. He’s additionally capturing 55.6% from the box and 48.6% from deep. His scoring is first in the league, his rebounding is first among guards and he is 1/3 in assists. The scoring quantity is not anything new, however the potency is. Doncic has been a median 3-point shooter over his profession, however to this point this season he is been rattling close to automated from deep. In back-to-back video games, he is knocked down 3 directly triples to both ice the recreation for Dallas or prolong their lead. It’s been arguably the perfect begin to a season of Doncic’s profession, and given he is gotten numerous complaint for getting into the common season out of form, it is a certain signal for Dallas that their franchise celebrity is starting to take his conditioning significantly. Doncic’s more likely to regress over the process the season, however at the moment his blistering get started has him out entrance for MVP.

Suns early season accidents are regarding

Fact or fiction: Fiction

The Suns spent large this summer time so as to add Bradley Beal to a lineup that already featured Kevin Durant and Devin Booker, and whilst the crew is 2-1 that trio hasn’t controlled to play a unmarried recreation in combination but. Beal hasn’t suited up as he is been coping with again ache, an damage Phoenix is reportedly being wary about. Booker has ignored the remaining two video games for the Suns with a foot damage, and is indexed as unsure for Phoenix’s Tuesday night time assembly with the Spurs and Victor Wembanyama. It’s simple to attract comparisons to how Durant’s earlier crew, the Brooklyn Nets, have been all the time saddled with accidents to their big name avid gamers, however I do not believe this case stocks any similarities with that one. 

Both Beal and Booker have performed in over 80% in their video games all over their careers, suggesting sturdiness even if minor accidents do pop up. This is not a case of 2 avid gamers who’re all the time injured, however slightly a crew short of to be wary with two in their big name avid gamers after spending a vital quantity of dough in this roster to check out and win a championship. 

Milwaukee will as soon as once more be height 5 defensively

Fact or fiction: Fiction

Sure, Milwaukee staved off a comeback from the Heat to improve to 2-1 on the season. And sure, the Bucks held the Heat to 73 facets via 3 quarters. But in addition they allowed Miami to move off for 41 facets in the fourth quarter of that recreation to nearly thieve a win. This is only a day after the Bucks fell at the back of via up to 31 facets to the Atlanta Hawks ahead of shedding via a extra decent margin of 17 facets. Milwaukee’s begin to the season on protection has been tough, however in no way sudden while you believe they swapped five-time All-Defensive Jrue Holiday, for the automated offense of Damian Lillard.

Last season Milwaukee used to be a top-5 protection, to this point this season they have got freefallen to twenty fifth. Surely they are going to determine some issues out, however that after stout protection from a yr in the past would possibly not go back. With Lillard as a legal responsibility on protection, it is going to require much more from the likes of Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton and Brook Lopez. And whilst it could be a “bend don’t break” mentality for the protection this season, that technique would possibly not paintings when the playoffs get started.

Chet Holmgren forward of Wembanyama for Rookie of the Year

Fact or fiction: Fact

Wembanyama is also getting the bulk of the consideration, however Holmgren is also in entrance of him via a hair for Rookie of the Year at the moment. When you set their stats side-by-side something stands out, Holmgren has been extra environment friendly than Wembanyama to begin the season. 

Chet Holmgren

15.0

60.6%

62.5%

6.3

2.8

2.0

1.0

Victor Wembanyama

15.7

44.7%

23.1%

7.3

1.7

1.7

2.0

That’s largely because of Holmgren being on a crew this is 3-1 and is a playoff contender, whilst Wembanyama is on a rebuilding Spurs crew nonetheless a few years from severe rivalry. But you do the perfect with what you might be given, and Holmgren has made a vital affect on the Thunder. Already he is recorded seven blocks in a recreation, highlighting how he is already an elite shot blocker and his potency from past the arc is in reality spectacular.

Kristaps Porzingis is the largest thieve of the offseason

Fact or fiction: Fact

The Celtics are 3-0 and Porzingis appears at house in Boston’s offense. He’s averaging 20.7 facets, 7.7 rebounds and in all probability most significantly two blocks a recreation. He’s gave the look of the best lacking piece to Boston’s roster, spreading the ground to permit Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown more room to perform in the paint, and being the elite rim protector that earned him an All-Star nod long ago when he used to be on the Knicks. It has taken Porzingis no time to slot in with Boston, and that are meant to be frightening for the remainder of the Eastern Conference.

It’s nearly no longer sudden in some way that Porzingis is prospering in Boston, for the reason that the largest downside about him used to be his sturdiness. He’s all the time been a 20-points-a-game scorer, however his well being has all the time restricted his availability. But his season remaining yr with the Wizards, the place he performed in 65 video games and averaged a career-high 23.2 facets, confirmed the ones problems are at the back of him. If this model of Porzingis used to be on the buying and selling block at the moment, the Celtics would’ve needed to ship much more than Danilo Gallinari and Mike Muscala to the Wizards to obtain him. Holiday is also the perfect participant Boston bought this summer time, however getting Porzingis for what they gave up used to be a thieve.  

Grizzlies should not be nervous about 0-4 get started

Fact or fiction: Fiction

It used to be all the time going to be a tricky highway forward for Memphis with out Ja Morant for the first 25 video games of the season, however nobody may’ve predicted that we might be getting into Week 2 of the season and the Grizzlies are nonetheless in search of their first win. And with out a instant, vital lend a hand on the horizon, Memphis must be nervous about this tough get started, particularly given their upcoming time table. Meetings with the Clippers, Lakers, Heat and Celtics over the subsequent 10 video games are going to make it tough for the Grizzlies to dig themselves out of this hollow they have got created, even the “easier” video games on their upcoming time table towards the Jazz, Spurs and Trail Blazers are not assured. 

It’s nonetheless too early to hit the panic button in this crew, particularly when Morant is suspended, Steven Adams is out for the season and minor accidents to position avid gamers are making an affect. But Memphis fared a lot better remaining season with out key avid gamers in the rotation, so this surprising get started is regarding. 



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