As the Gaza warfare rages, with civilian deaths hovering, few Arab leaders have publicly voiced their visions for the way forward for the battered enclave, fearing they’ll be accused of endorsing Israel’s movements.
But one influential Palestinian exile, in an interview with The New York Times, has supplied public perception into the forms of postwar plans that Arab leaders are privately discussing.
Mohammed Dahlan, an adviser to the president of the United Arab Emirates, defined one beneath which Israel and Hamas would hand energy to a new and unbiased Palestinian chief who may just rebuild Gaza beneath the safety of an Arab peacekeeping pressure.
While such plans face steep demanding situations, the leaders of Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the Emirates are open to supporting processes which are a part of efforts resulting in a Palestinian state, mentioned Mr. Dahlan, who additionally has shut ties to Egypt’s president, Abdel Fattah el-Sisi.
Officials from six Arab governments collected in Saudi Arabia ultimate week to talk about the way forward for Gaza and the desire for a cease-fire, in step with two Palestinian officers, who spoke on the situation of anonymity.
Under the plan defined by way of Mr. Dahlan and echoed privately by way of Arab international locations, a new Palestinian chief would suppose accountability for Gaza and the portions of the Israeli-occupied West Bank recently administered by way of the Palestinian Authority. That chief would substitute Mahmoud Abbas, the authority’s 88-year-old president, who would retain a ceremonial function, Mr. Dahlan mentioned.
“No Abbas, no Hamas,” mentioned Mr. Dahlan, who has lengthy been at odds with Mr. Abbas. “New people in charge of the Palestinian Authority.”
For years, Mr. Dahlan used to be remoted from the Palestinian political scene, and criticized by way of many energy avid gamers.
He used to be Mr. Abbas’s nationwide safety adviser when Hamas took over Gaza in 2007, and he had a popularity for brutality that made him unpopular with many Palestinians. His dating with Mr. Abbas deteriorated amid perceptions that he used to be seeking to be successful him, and he used to be convicted of corruption in absentia, on fees he denies, in 2016.
In the U.A.E., he constructed shut relationships with contributors of the royal circle of relatives, to start with reconnecting with Sheikh Hazza bin Zayed, his former counterpart within the Emirati safety established order. He additionally attached with Sheikh Hazza’s brother, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed, who become president in 2022. Mr. Dahlan has since develop into one in all his key advisers.
“He’s very much the Emirati president’s point man on Palestinian policy,” Mouin Rabbani, a Palestinian politics knowledgeable, mentioned of Mr. Dahlan.
Mr. Dahlan nonetheless has critics who say that he used heavy-handed ways in Gaza, and that he had a tendency for self-promotion. But he’s a vital pressure in Palestinian politics, analysts say, in part the results of his serving to to influence Emirati finances to Gaza.
He oversees a political birthday party that used to be noticed as a imaginable kingmaker all over a 2021 election marketing campaign within the West Bank and Gaza, ahead of the vote used to be canceled. He coordinates frequently with different Palestinian opposition leaders in a unfastened community looking for to unseat Mr. Abbas.
“He’s a prominent Palestinian politician with a wide network of support in Gaza,” mentioned Jehad Harb, an analyst based totally in Ramallah, within the West Bank. “The millions the Emirates has funneled to Gaza through him has only reinforced his standing there.”
Mr. Dahlan additionally has constructed shut ties with best Hamas officers in recent times, in step with Ghaith al-Omari, an analyst of Palestinian affairs on the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
In the interview, Mr. Dahlan, 62, mentioned a new Palestinian management may just invite pleasant Arab states to ship troops to assist stay order in Gaza. And nations just like the U.A.E. and Saudi Arabia can be ready to assist — and to fund reconstruction — if Israel agreed to the advent of a Palestinian state, he mentioned.
“If there is a two-state solution, the answer is a big yes,” Mr. Dahlan mentioned.
“The main Arab countries are really very keen to settle this conflict,” he added. “Not the war, the whole conflict.”
Saudi Arabia and Egypt declined to remark on the plan described by way of Mr. Dahlan. A U.A.E. commentary did indirectly deal with the plan, however mentioned, “Our contribution to any reconstruction effort in Gaza will be conditional” on commitments towards attaining “a two-state solution.”
Briefed on the plan that Mr. Dahlan described, Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, an Emirati political scientist, mentioned it used to be “consistent with what we know about what we call ‘the day after’” the warfare, relating to what he were listening to about discussions amongst Arab leaders.
The plan faces substantial hurdles. The Palestinian Authority and Mr. Abbas have balked at adjustments to the group, which stays mired in corruption and is broadly noticed as authoritarian.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel has pledged to retain “overall security” keep watch over over Gaza and the West Bank, rejecting a totally sovereign Palestinian state. Mr. Netanyahu’s political base could also be pushing to resettle Israeli civilians within Gaza as soon as the warfare ends.
Any proposal would additionally require buy-in from Hamas, which nonetheless controls a part of southern Gaza.
The scenario in Gaza is dire: An estimated 28,000 folks had been killed; maximum constructions are broken or destroyed, in step with the United Nations; and lots of the 2.2 million citizens have fled their properties.
Mr. Dahlan mentioned that a few of his circle of relatives were killed in Gaza and that many in their properties were destroyed.
Mr. Dahlan grew up in southern Gaza, in the similar town as Yahya Sinwar, the Hamas chief who oversaw the Oct. 7 assault on Israel.
Mr. Dahlan joined Fatah, Hamas’s secular rival, and rose to develop into the Palestinian Authority’s safety leader in Gaza. He used to be touring outdoor Gaza when Hamas seized keep watch over of it in 2007, stripping him of his energy and prompting his flight to the West Bank. Four years later, Mr. Dahlan fell out with Mr. Abbas. After he used to be ousted from Fatah and Palestinian safety forces raided his house in Ramallah, he fled.
In exile, Mr. Dahlan gathered energy, wealth and affect thru his shut friendship with the Emirati president, whom he represents as an emissary during the area.
The indicators of his relaxed place in Abu Dhabi had been obvious all over the interview, which happened throughout the grounds of a palace owned by way of the Emirati royal circle of relatives. Outside his workplace stood a chrome-colored Bentley; in his sitting room had been a minimum of 12 massive sofas.
Though as soon as noticed by way of some Israelis as a doable spouse, Mr. Dahlan confirmed little sympathy for Israeli considerations within the interview. He brushed aside the speculation of him seeking to persuade Israelis concerning the want for a Palestinian state. “It’s not my job to convince the Israelis,” he mentioned. “Let them go to hell.”
Mr. Dahlan mentioned he used to be running to persuade Hamas to cede energy to a new Palestinian management, hinting that the gang might be persuaded to surrender keep watch over as a part of a broader package deal that created a Palestinian state.
For a decade, Mr. Dahlan has been broadly thought to be a imaginable successor to Mr. Abbas. But within the interview, he mentioned he used to be bored to death in taking on a formal management function.
Mr. Dahlan is not likely to be in a rush to go away the U.A.E. with the intention to lead a difficult reconstruction procedure in a rancorous political gadget, Mr. Omari mentioned. Still, he has spent substantial money and time keeping up networks within the West Bank and Gaza, suggesting he has long-term political aspirations, Mr. Omari mentioned.
“He’s not someone who has checked out of Palestine,” he mentioned.
Like different senior Palestinian politicians, Mr. Dahlan shied clear of condemning the Hamas-led assault, through which Israeli officers say about 1,200 folks had been killed.
But he criticized Hamas leaders for claiming that Gazans had been in a position to pay the cost of the gang’s movements.
“Relying on people suffering isn’t leadership,” he mentioned. “The Palestinian people want to live.”