American intelligence officers stated Tuesday they now had “high confidence” that the blast at Al-Ahli Arab Hospital in Gaza ultimate week used to be the results of a Palestinian rocket that broke up mid-flight, and that no Israeli weapon used to be concerned within the explosion.
The officers stated, alternatively, that a large number of mysteries nonetheless remained concerning the incident. Those come with what number of people had been killed or injured when, by way of the U.S. account, the warhead of a Palestinian rocket landed within the automobile parking space of the health facility. But they stated there used to be little injury to the health facility itself, and no cave in of the construction.
U.S. intelligence companies launched no new imagery or different new proof to make their case. Instead, they stated their bolstered evaluation got here from Israeli intercepts of Palestinian armed teams and publicly to be had video. Those movies, the U.S. officers stated, allowed them to evaluate that the rocket used to be introduced from Gaza and, after a “catastrophic motor failure,” the warhead fell on the health facility’s automobile parking space. The officers, who spoke on the situation of anonymity to speak about delicate information, stated there used to be no proof an Israeli release may have been accountable.
A U.S. intelligence legitimate stated the research of the movies has targeted essentially on one recorded by way of Al Jazeera, although there are more than one movies of projectiles within the skies and the explosion on the health facility. The U.S. intelligence research of the Al Jazeera video is at odds with a New York Times investigation, which discovered that the projectile proven in that video and others used to be introduced from Israel and exploded smartly clear of the health facility. A spokesman for the Office of the Director of National Intelligence stated The Times and intelligence companies had other interpretations of the video.
U.S. officers stated their evaluation used to be additionally based totally on communications intercepts supplied by way of the Israelis and photographs of the explosion and aftermath. Last week, U.S. officers stated their early intelligence confirmed that the blast used to be brought about by way of an armed Palestinian crew, rebutting Palestinian claims that an Israeli strike brought about the explosion. U.S. undercover agent companies didn’t free up detailed proof on the time to make stronger their evaluation.
On Tuesday, U.S. intelligence officers reaffirmed their evaluation that Israel used to be no longer liable for the explosion. The analysis mirrored the next level of simple task by way of U.S. intelligence officers that Israel used to be no longer liable for the blast.
Israel has stated the explosion, which ended in an important choice of casualties, used to be brought about by way of Palestinian Islamic Jihad, a bunch allied with Hamas. The crew stated Israel’s accusations that one among its rockets malfunctioned and hit the health facility had been “false and baseless.” Hamas has no longer supplied any documentation of Israeli involvement.
The health facility blast precipitated protests across the area. In an early declare, Hamas stated that the health facility were hit by way of an Israeli missile. President Biden, flying to Israel for a talk over with, stated ultimate week that initial proof used to be that the strike were “done by the other team,’’ but that the conclusion was preliminary.
But the initial account by Hamas took hold, especially at a time when Israel was carrying out airstrikes in advance of a potential ground attack intended to eliminate Hamas after the terror attack that the Israeli government says killed more than 1,400 people. Israel’s relentless artillery and bombing campaign in response has killed 5,700 Palestinians, according to the Hamas-run Gazan Health Ministry.
The latest American assessment is in part based on what has not been discovered. A senior intelligence official said there were no images of any Palestinians displaying an Israeli weapon from the bomb site.
U.S. officials said only light damage was sustained at the site, which is consistent with the premise of a Gaza-made rocket that broke up in flight, rather than an Israeli munition striking the hospital.
Images of a fireball at the hospital site, and pictures taken after the fact showing burned cars in the compound’s parking lot, are consistent with a malfunctioning missile, according to U.S. officials.
The American assessment also relies heavily on intercepts provided by Israeli intelligence agencies. U.S. officials said the Israelis have provided multiple recordings that American intelligence agencies say they have authenticated. All of the recordings are secondhand accounts: members of Hamas discussing their belief that the explosion was caused by an errant or malfunctioning rocket fired by Palestinian Islamic Jihad. U.S. officials did not provide recordings or transcriptions of these intercepts.
The declassified assessment provides no specific information on where U.S. intelligence officials think a rocket causing the blast was launched from inside Gaza.
But the senior official said the agencies were continuing to investigate. If the United States gets additional information that would point in a different direction, the official said, intelligence agencies will release it.
On Monday, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak of Britain said his country’s intelligence services assessed that a Palestinian rocket fired from Gaza and aimed at Israel was likely the cause of the deaths at the hospital.
“On the basis of the deep knowledge and analysis of our intelligence and weapons experts, the British government judges that the explosion was likely caused by a missile or part of one that was launched from within Gaza towards Israel,” Mr. Sunak stated.
Last week, U.S. intelligence companies stated that they had been running to corroborate an Israeli evaluation that the explosion resulted from an errant rocket fired by way of Palestinian Islamic Jihad.
The choice of casualties from the explosion on the health facility stays in dispute.
U.S. officers estimated ultimate week that between 100 and 300 folks had been killed, however stated the loss of life toll used to be most likely on the low finish of that vary. On Tuesday, U.S. officers stated they just had low self assurance in that evaluation. The Hamas-run well being ministry in Gaza stated the loss of life toll used to be 471, a determine revised down from their previous evaluation of 500.
U.S. officers stated on Tuesday that a correct rely of the individuals who died on the health facility used to be inconceivable to acquire on account of a loss of unbiased assets.
Days after Hamas accused Israel of bombing a health facility in Gaza City and killing masses of folks, the armed Palestinian crew has but to provide or describe any proof linking Israel to the blast, says it can’t in finding the munition that hit the website and has declined to supply element to make stronger its rely of the casualties.
The Hamas-run well being ministry has additionally declined to free up additional information about the ones 471 sufferers, and all strains of the munition have reputedly vanished from the website of the blast, including to the trouble in assessing its provenance. Raising additional questions on Hamas’s claims, the affect website grew to become out to be the health facility automobile parking space, and no longer the health facility itself.