Israel-Hamas war upends years of conventional wisdom. Leaders give few details on what comes next

JERUSALEM – Just 3 weeks into the deadliest war between Israel and Hamas, it already is apparent that the bloodshed has flipped long-standing assumptions in Israel and the area the wrong way up.

Israel’s army and intelligence products and services have been uncovered as incompetent and ill-prepared. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s many years of makes an attempt to sideline the Palestinians and U.S. efforts to control the war, somewhat than remedy it, badly backfired.

Israelis’ sense of private safety used to be shattered. The world group’s conventional way of urging Israel to withdraw from occupied land in trade for peace now seems out of the query.

“Many paradigms have collapsed with this murderous attack by Hamas,” mentioned Nadav Eyal, a commentator for Israel’s Yediot Ahronot newspaper.

Here is a have a look at how the important thing gamers were given it incorrect.

ISRAELI SECURITY

Over the many years, Israel’s army and safety companies constructed a name of close to invincibility thru refined intelligence-gathering, bold covert operations and deterrence.

Israeli intelligence gadgets saved tabs on Palestinians with delicate surveillance gear. Travelers out and in of Gaza have been matter to deep background tests and interrogations that along side a community of informants gave Israel a large database.

This used to be subsidized by means of a high-tech army supplied with intelligence so actual a drone may just kill a sought after militant in his mattress, whilst leaving the remainder of his space intact. The border used to be fortified with tanks, military bases, a large separation barrier fitted with cameras and sensors, and an underground wall noticed as impenetrable.

Still, on Oct. 7, militants blew through the barrie r undetected and moved into Israeli cities with out resistance. It took hours for Israeli forces to reply, permitting the militants to kill over 1,400 other folks, the overwhelming majority civilians, and seize over 200 hostages. It could be days sooner than Israeli safety forces regained keep an eye on, and a few two dozen border communities stay evacuated.

The heads of Israel’s Shin Bet inside safety carrier and Israeli army intelligence have admitted failure and brought accountability.

They stay on the process whilst Israel wages its war. But they may well be amongst a protracted line of anticipated resignations and firings when the mud settles.

PRIME MINISTER BENJAMIN NETANYAHU

Netanyahu has survived his long political profession by means of persuading the country that he’s highest certified to give protection to them and treating the Palestinians as a facet factor.

He has time and again resisted makes an attempt to restart peace talks and rejected requires the established order of an unbiased Palestinian state. Instead, he sought to control the war with a mix of financial incentives to the Palestinians, subsidized by means of occasional army operations in opposition to Palestinian militants, whilst increasing Jewish settlements within the West Bank and keeping up a stifling blockade of Gaza.

Netanyahu exploited the divisions between the rival Palestinian governments within the West Bank and Gaza — a coverage that steadily served to fortify Hamas on the expense of the the world over known Palestinian Authority. This undermined Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and supplied an excuse for now not pursuing peace talks.

While looking to sideline the Palestinians, he courted rich Gulf Arab international locations with the realization that this is able to pressure the Palestinians to simply accept an association a ways brief of independence. His message used to be that Israel can be a robust nation and electorate may just experience a Western-style way of life whilst containing the Palestinians with an impressive military and separation partitions.

This international view used to be upended by means of the Hamas assault, and Netanyahu’s long political profession now seems in jeopardy as his govt faces in style domestic outrage. Netanyahu, who likes to boast of his nation’s army and financial successes, will probably be remembered as the person in fee throughout the worst assault in Israeli historical past.

Netanyahu this week said that he, like many others, “will have to provide answers” to the general public — however most effective after the war is over.

“I simply cannot imagine an Israeli prime minister surviving such a colossal failure — not only in the history of the Zionist movement and the state of Israel, but a colossal failure in Jewish history,” mentioned Eyal.

TWO-STATE SOLUTION

Since brokering intervening time peace accords 3 many years in the past, the United States has pursued two every so often contradictory targets.

It has time and again referred to as for the established order of a Palestinian state. But with the exception of a handful of short-lived peace plans, it has performed little to advertise this purpose, focusing as an alternative on conflict management, fighting tensions from boiling over and leaving a delicate establishment in position.

In some ways, the most recent war is an end result of this failed way. It confirmed that the established order used to be now not sustainable and had if truth be told undermined probabilities of a two-state answer, partly by means of permitting Israel to increase settlements and deepen its 56-year-old open-ended army profession.

Israelis, in the meantime, overwhelmingly see their 2005 withdrawal from Gaza as a failure that they consider resulted in the upward push of Hamas and the Oct. 7 crisis.

Mazal Mualem, a commentator for Yediot Ahronot, says there will probably be no urge for food for territorial compromise with the Palestinians after the war. “No one will evacuate even one piece of land in the next generation,” she mentioned.

Not that territorial compromise used to be ever an choice. Netanyahu, who has ruled with the exception of 365 days since 2009, by no means expressed willingness to yield occupied land to the Palestinians.

But Eyal sees larger militarization and little urge for food for diplomatic projects. “It’s almost impossible to take risks,” he said.

Israeli historian Tom Segev, who has documented the uprooting of Palestinian communities during the war surrounding Israel’s creation, said he could not rule out a mass expulsion of Palestinians from Gaza.

The Oct. 7 attacks played into deep-seated Israeli fears that the Palestinians are not prepared to accept Israel’s existence. While Segev said it’s too early to say which way the war is headed, the sentiments are clear.

“People are saying, ‘Expel them from Gaza,'” he said.

THE GAZA STRIP

Israel withdrew its settlers and soldiers from Gaza in 2005 after concluding the continued occupation of the densely populated Palestinian territory was untenable. A close adviser to then-Prime Minister Ariel Sharon famously said the withdrawal was also intended to pack peace efforts “in formaldehyde” and save you the established order of a Palestinian state with the West Bank at its core.

The withdrawal left a vacuum that Hamas temporarily stuffed. The Islamic militant team received Palestinian parliamentary elections in 2006, and the next yr violently seized keep an eye on of Gaza from the Palestinian Authority.

Israel imposed a blockade, restricting motion out and in of Gaza in hopes of weakening Hamas. It waged a sequence of wars and smaller battles with Hamas — a coverage referred to as “mowing the lawn” that used to be supposed to stay the gang in take a look at.

In most likely its greatest miscalculation, Israel concluded that Hamas had morphed from an armed team dedicated to Israel’s destruction to a extra pragmatic group centered on governing and survival. The Oct. 7 assault proved that Hamas’ army wing used to be extra robust, higher armed and extra arranged than Israel assumed.

Israel “fell asleep at the wheel,” wrote Amos Harel, a commentator on army affairs for the Haaretz day-to-day. “Israeli society repressed the ramifications of the Palestinian conflict, persuaded itself that it could go on rolling the problem forward without looking for a solution, and sought lucrative real estate and cheap vacations abroad,” he mentioned.

Israel has vowed to smash Hamas, however this might not be a very simple job in opposition to a gaggle with important public beef up and an entrenched army presence in Gaza. And although Israel prevails, it has now not introduced a transparent go out technique.

Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has mentioned Israel does now not wish to be liable for civilian affairs — indicating that Israel does now not wish to re-occupy Gaza. He has often known as for a “new security regime” with out elaborating.

President Joe Biden mentioned Wednesday that “when this crisis is over, there has to be a vision of what comes next.”

“And in our view, it has to be a two-state solution,” he added — repeating the similar formulation that has been the root of 30 years of failure.