BY: WEATHER TEAM | BocaNewsNow.com
BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) (Copyright © 2022 MetroDesk Media, LLC) — The system generally known as “potential tropical cyclone 15” is anticipated to turn into Tropical Storm Julia on Monday. The system, south of Florida, is anticipated to stay on a westerly course, making a direct Florida hit unlikely.
This is the 5 a.m. replace from the National Hurricane Center. We have mixed advisories into one report:
TROPICAL OUTLOOK AND FORECAST
Potential Tropical Cyclone (PTC) Fifteen is centered close to 15.8N 74.9W at 31/0300 UTC, or 170 nm SE of Kingston, Jamaica and shifting W at 10 kt. Estimated minimal central strain is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind velocity is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered reasonable convection is obvious inside 75 nm of the middle. Recent ASCAT satellite tv for pc scatterometer and altimetry information reveal the strongest E to SE winds and 9 to 11 ft seas are as much as 120 nm north and southeast of the middle, south of Haiti. PTC Fifteen is anticipated to step by step strengthen and will turn into a tropical storm on Monday. It will proceed on a basic westward observe with little change in ahead velocity for the subsequent a number of days.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ———————- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered close to latitude 15.8 North, longitude 76.1 West. The system is shifting towards the west close to 12 mph (19 km/h), and a westward to west-northwestward movement is anticipated over the subsequent few days. On the forecast observe, the middle will go south of Jamaica and the Cayman Islands in the present day and Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds are close to 40 mph (65 km/h) with greater gusts.
The system is anticipated to turn into a tropical storm later in the present day. Strengthening is forecast through the subsequent couple of days and the system may very well be close to hurricane energy by Wednesday.
- Formation probability via 48 hours…excessive…90 %.
- Formation probability via 5 days…excessive…90 %.
Tropical-storm-force winds lengthen outward as much as 115 miles (185 km) from the middle.
The estimated minimal central strain is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ———————- WIND: Tropical storm circumstances are attainable inside the watch space in Jamaica starting in the present day and are attainable on Grand Cayman Island on Tuesday.
RAINFALL: Through Thursday morning, the system is anticipated to provide rainfall quantities of 1 inch, with native quantities to 2 inches throughout parts of Hispaniola, the Cayman Islands, northern Honduras, and jap Nicaragua. For Jamaica and Belize, rainfall quantities of two to 4 inches are anticipated, with localized totals of 6 inches in Belize. This rainfall might result in flash flooding.
SURF: Swells generated by the system are anticipated to have an effect on Jamaica and the Cayman Islands through the subsequent couple of days.
These swells might trigger life-threatening surf and rip present circumstances. Please seek the advice of merchandise out of your native climate workplace.
