How Texas Gov. Greg Abbott learned not to cross his party on guns — ever again

AUSTIN — Gov. Greg Abbott has had to reply earlier than to a mass taking pictures in a Texas college.

There are indicators his earlier try to tinker with Texas gun legal guidelines left Abbott, a politician famend for warning, much more risk-averse.

As Abbott seems to be forward to this month’s state GOP conference, which party officers say they’re uncertain he’ll attend; the Nov. 8 election, which he’s nonetheless favored to win; and probably, a bid for the White House in 2024, he most likely has little incentive to strive to tighten any gun legal guidelines, a number of specialists agreed.

It’s seemingly Abbott gained’t advocate something that runs counter to his party’s base, two professors and two veterans of Texas’ latest gun-safety debates agreed. Instead, they mentioned they anticipate the Republican governor to hunker down, speak largely about psychological well being and safer faculties, and await the general public’s consideration to wane – because it at all times has, no less than earlier than Uvalde.

“This represents the return of the Janus-faced Abbott, who talks one way and acts another,” mentioned University of Houston political scientist Brandon Rottinghaus. He referred to a Roman god of gateways, normally represented by a double-faced head.

“He’s afraid to anger any side before a potentially tight election. He’s seen the same polling we all have, which suggests that significant portions of the Texas public want to see common sense gun reform, and he’s worried about losing coalition partners, like college-educated women and suburban Texans,” Rottinghaus mentioned. “His sort of obfuscation on this is a return to the kind of political weathervane that he’s been in the past.”

In the wake of Uvalde, Abbott’s unlikely to supply a gun-restricting proposal of any form, mentioned Harel Shapira, a sociologist on the University of Texas at Austin who has studied gun tradition.

“To the extent that you’re going to see a response here, a clear response, it’s going to be that we need to further arm the police officers, and possibly teachers,” he mentioned.

Though most Republican elected officers are circumspect about criticizing Abbott, former GOP Land Commissioner Jerry Patterson dinged him for not staring down “lying” gun rights advocates who say no model of an extreme-risk protective-order legislation can honor the Second Amendment. Nineteen states have such “red flag” legal guidelines, which permit judges to order that guns be briefly turned over by or confiscated from somebody who poses a threat to self or others.

If they supply due course of, closing dates for gun removals and penalties for false statements – in, say, a nasty divorce battle – such legal guidelines have advantage, mentioned Patterson, an outspoken gun rights advocate identified to carry a revolver in his boot and a .380-caliber semiautomatic pistol on the small of his again.

Although Abbott’s not solely to blame for state leaders’ paralysis on guns, he had a golden alternative in 2018, he mentioned.

“Sometimes, you have to actually use the bully pulpit and lead even if it’s a political risk,” mentioned Patterson, a former Marine who authored the state’s 1995 hid handgun legislation. “When you find something that can make a difference and it respects constitutional rights and it can be passed, you need to advocate for it,” he mentioned of a well-crafted crimson flag legislation.

As for Abbott, “when it became clear that it was not going to pass, he bailed on it,” regardless of pleas simply weeks earlier for lawmakers to “consider the merits” of the proposal, Patterson famous.

Late Thursday, Abbott spokeswoman Renae Eze dismissed such criticisms, questioning the eye spans – and motives – of the governor’s detractors.

Earlier this week, she famous, Abbott requested the House and Senate to type particular examine committees and ordered “immediate school safety reviews” at public college campuses.

“While some are politicizing this senseless tragedy to further their political careers, Governor Abbott has been leading the state’s response since day one, sharing information … and working to ensure the Uvalde community has all available resources and support during this heartbreaking time,” Eze mentioned. “Anyone who criticizes the governor for not addressing this tragedy is not paying attention and is only looking to score political points.”

Letting Legislature lead

Anyone paying consideration, although, has observed refined variations in Abbott’s response to the May 24 killings of 19 college students and two lecturers at Uvalde’s Robb Elementary School, as in contrast with earlier, large-scale mass shootings throughout his seven-year, five-month tenure as governor.

For one, he’s yielded management of speedy talks on what to do to the Legislature.

After a church bloodbath in Sutherland Springs in November 2017 (26 folks slain by a gunman) and the Santa Fe High shootings in May 2018 (10 slain), Abbott presided over three days of roundtable discussions earlier than issuing a 44-page report stuffed with suggestions.

After a retailer bloodbath in El Paso (23 slain) and mayhem alongside roadways in Midland-Odessa (seven slain, 25 injured by a gunman) in August 2019, Abbott empaneled a Texas Safety Commission and a Domestic Terrorism Task Force. The governor then sped out eight govt orders – most, about dealing with of suspicious exercise stories – and a 15-page name to motion.

On Wednesday Abbott requested Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick and Speaker Dade Phelan to convene panels to examine classes from Uvalde. Abbott cited 5 broad subjects, the final of which was “firearm safety.”

Another distinction in Abbott’s response this time? So far, he has averted any speak of gun restrictions.

“There are thousands of laws on the books across the country that limit the owning or using of firearms, laws that have not stopped madmen from carrying out evil acts on innocent people,” he informed the National Rifle Association three days after the Uvalde shootings.

Painful historical past

Four years in the past, at an identical second within the political calendar, the Republican governor had gained renomination, was mulling how to deal with his party’s sometimes-unruly state conference – and but was much more prepared to speak about guns. On May 18 of that 12 months, a 17-year-old boy took his dad and mom’ shotgun and revolver to Santa Fe High and killed eight college students and two lecturers, wounding 13 others.

As the tumultuous summer time of 2018 started, Abbott was open to a crimson flag legislation and more durable penalties for fogeys who don’t correctly lock away their firearms.

Militant gun rights activists assailed him, although. The state GOP’s platform committee opposed a crimson flag legislation, saying solely criminals and certifiably mentally incompetent folks ought to be stripped of guns. As for gun storage, “We oppose mandates [because] it is the responsibility of an individual to safely store his or her firearms,” the platform mentioned.

At that 12 months’s state conference in San Antonio, Abbott recalled that simply hours after their relations had been gunned down in Sutherland Springs, victims’ family pleaded with him, “Governor, do not let them use this to take away our guns!”

Ten days later, whereas a particular House panel was listening to testimony about extreme-risk protecting orders, Abbott tweeted, “I don’t advocate red flag laws. Only that it is something the legislature can consider.” A month later, after a particular Senate panel likewise mentioned a crimson flag legislation, Patrick issued a press launch announcing the thought useless in his chamber. The lieutenant governor, who typically enjoys frosty relations with Abbott, famous the governor’s seeming flip-flop.

“Abbott formally asked the legislature to consider ‘Red Flag’ laws in May so I added them to the charges I gave to the select committee. However, Gov. Abbott has since said he doesn’t advocate ‘Red Flag’ laws,” mentioned Patrick, who insisted he himself had at all times opposed them.

Despite absorbing such jabs, even after El Paso and Midland-Odessa, Abbott in September 2019 continued to speak in his “Texas Safety Action Report” about more durable penalties for illegally making an attempt to buy a gun, a ban on “straw purchases” by criminals and a $1 million advert marketing campaign selling protected gun storage.

But by final 12 months’s session, amid a pandemic and discussions of the state’s rickety electrical grid, Abbott tacked rightward on guns. He made making Texas a “Second Amendment sanctuary state” a legislative precedence. Just greater than 5 weeks after former Dallas state Sen. Don Huffines introduced he’d problem Abbott within the GOP gubernatorial major, the two-term incumbent signed a invoice to let Texans carry handguns with no license or coaching.

A disillusioned sufferer

In late 2018, on the Governor’s Mansion in Austin, Abbott reportedly informed Flo Rice, a survivor of the Santa Fe massacre, that he would “make it a priority” to create a fee to look into the Galveston County highschool incident. At the time, a “Parkland commission” reporting to Florida’s GOP leaders about that 12 months’s Valentine’s Day bloodbath at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High in Parkland (Broward County) was wrapping up a 455-page report.

“He said he would make it a priority to get it done,” Rice, a substitute trainer who was shot six occasions within the hips and legs, mentioned of Abbott and a Santa Fe fee. “Nothing came of it.”

When informed of Rice’s account, Eze, the Abbott spokeswoman, did not reply.

Eze additionally did not reply to Rice’s disparagement of legislative research Abbott requested after Uvalde.

“He’s just doing it to make it look like he’s doing something,” mentioned Rice, now 59. “He’s just dragging this out.”

Abbott and different state GOP leaders choose to focus on college structure, social media, a decline in public morality – something aside from the killing capabilities of contemporary firearms, mentioned Ed Scruggs, a gun-control advocate who previously was president of Texas Gun Sense.

In a latest op-ed within the Houston Chronicle and an interview with The Dallas Morning News, Scruggs described as “surreal” his observations as a participant in Abbott’s 2018 roundtables and 2019 Texas Safety Commission conferences. Behind closed doorways, Abbott and Patrick talked of “taking meaningful action,” solely to wilt after Second Amendment laborious liners objected, he mentioned.

After Uvalde, Abbott has muddied dialogue of elevating the age to 21, from 18, for getting semi automated rifles, Scruggs complained.

At a press convention in Uvalde on May 27, Abbott mentioned, “Ever since Texas has been a state, an 18-year-old has had the ability to buy a long gun, a rifle. Maybe we’re focusing our attention on the wrong thing.”

Retorted Scruggs: “As if the murder weapon at Uvalde and El Paso is a deer rifle. It’s almost laughable, but that’s the game that they play with language. They don’t want to use the real language.”

Asked about Scruggs’ remark, Eze did not reply.

Veteran GOP guide and lobbyist Bill Miller mentioned Florida’s Republican leaders might have reacted to the Parkland killing spree, which claimed 17 lives, by passing a crimson flag legislation and elevating the age to 21 for getting semi automated rifles. Don’t anticipate the identical right here, he mentioned.

“Texas is more severe in its love of guns than Florida, and perhaps anywhere besides Alaska,” he mentioned. “We just have a history. We were a separate nation. We fought wars to free ourselves. We’re on a border with a foreign country. Guns are part of our DNA. There’s no other state quite like us.”