Gov. Youngkin aims for a GOP sweep in Virginia’s legislative elections. Democrats have other ideas

RICHMOND, Va. – In a last message to electorate in this 12 months’s carefully watched Virginia legislative elections, Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin ticks off accomplishments from the primary half of of his time period.

Tax cuts, regulation enforcement pay raises and more cash for psychological well being services and products, Youngkin says in the political advert, including that there’s so a lot more he needs to get accomplished over his subsequent two years in place of work.

“Elect a Republican team to back me up and I promise, we’ll deliver,” Youngkin says.

Unmentioned is what Democrats warn will occur if Republicans finish two years of divided executive: new restrictions on abortion, a rollback of gun keep watch over regulations and not too long ago expanded balloting rights, and an schedule pushed via divisive social problems.

Voters may make their priorities transparent Tuesday after they make a decision whether or not to offer the GOP complete keep watch over of state executive for the primary time in a decade or empower Democratic legislators to proceed serving as a take a look at on Youngkin’s priorities. The result might hinge on what Virginians bring to mind Youngkin’s proposed new limits on abortion get admission to in the second one and 3rd trimesters of being pregnant and whether or not Democrats’ intense center of attention on that factor holds sway over Republicans’ pitch, in large part focused on schooling, crime and the financial system.

No matter has been extra contentious than the way forward for abortion coverage in the dozen or so districts that can most likely decide the stability of energy in the General Assembly. The events’ approaches are being carefully watched across the nation.

Virginia is one in all 4 states — the others are Louisiana, Mississippi and New Jersey — with legislative elections this 12 months. Virginia’s off-year time table and narrowly divided politics normally imply the state is a position to check messaging and scrutinize voter sentiment sooner than the approaching 12 months’s presidential cycle.

It’s additionally the one Southern state that has now not put in position new restrictions on abortion because the U.S. Supreme Court in June 2022 overturned Roe v. Wade, the landmark ruling a half-century in the past that equipped constitutional protections for abortion.

Youngkin and Republicans in Richmond pushed unsuccessfully previous this 12 months for a ban on abortions after 15 weeks of being pregnant, with exceptions for rape, incest and the lifetime of the mum. The measure used to be blocked via the Democratic majority in the state Senate, which has prided itself as a “brick wall” towards the governor’s schedule.

Youngkin needs to check out once more subsequent 12 months and says the regulation is a cheap compromise. The state these days permits abortions thru the second one trimester and restricts them in the 3rd to instances in which 3 docs certify the mum’s existence is in peril or her psychological or bodily well being could also be “substantially and irremediably” impaired via proceeding the being pregnant.

While there may be been some quiet Republican dissent concerning the governor’s plan and a pricey advert purchase his political motion committee made to put it on the market, many GOP applicants operating in swing districts make stronger his proposal.

Democrats and abortion-rights teams say the GOP plan would infringe on girls’s autonomy and threaten their well being. While additionally campaigning on gun keep watch over, balloting rights and environmental protections, Democrats have made their pledge to dam Youngkin’s proposed 15-week ban a centerpiece in their case to electorate. Most Democrats say they might both offer protection to the present regulation or amplify abortion protections via kickstarting the multiyear procedure for a constitutional modification.

Voters “know that the restriction of a right that exists today is not a compromise and it is not a consensus position. And so we continue to stand firm,” Sen. Monty Mason, a Democrat in a highly competitive Tidewater district, recently told reporters.

Republicans, including Mason’s opponent, retired sheriff Danny Diggs, are highlighting pledges to tighten sentences for drug dealers and other offenders, roll back environmental mandates enacted during the previous Democratic administration and cut taxes to help families. But they also are testing a new strategy on abortion, “going on offense,” as one memo from Youngkin’s PAC put it.

GOP strategists privately acknowledge they do not see abortion as a winning issue for their candidates in a state that Democrat Joe Biden won by 10 percentage points in the 2020 presidential election. But candidates have been urged by Youngkin’s PAC and national anti-abortion groups to address the issue head-on.

Diggs, who said he would not vote for a bill more restrictive than the governor’s proposal, acknowledged that he is hearing more from voters about the issue than he was in the spring. But he said he thinks the GOP’s position is resonating: “We’re right there in the middle.”

Republicans are also hoping for a boost from a major investment in an initiative aiming to overcome GOP skepticism about early and mail voting, and get ballots banked before Election Day. An analysis by the nonpartisan Virginia Public Access Project found that six days out from the election, the share of early votes cast by likely Republican voters — Virginia doesn’t have registration by party — has increased more than 2 percentage points from last year, while the GOP’s share of mail votes is up by almost 4 percentage points.

“We’re going to beat them at their own game,” Kay James, a former Youngkin Cabinet official who now works with his PAC, said at a rally Thursday.

In the general weeks of the election cycle, which has been marked via unprecedented spending, strategists and officers from each events say the crucial races are shut.

The legislative candidates are running this year under maps redrawn during the last redistricting. The new lines gave Republicans a tougher road in retaking the Senate than holding the House, said Rich Anderson, chairman of the Republican Party of Virginia. He said he was “cautiously confident” about the possibility of a GOP trifecta — both legislative chambers as well as the governorship.

Both parties have reason to think that what’s going on in Washington may affect the Virginia races.

Democrats launched an ad last week highlighting the fractious fight over picking the new speaker of the U.S. House, warning that “MAGA Republicans” were in a complete meltdown and would bring the same governing style to Richmond, referring to former President Donald Trump’s “Make American Great Again” campaign slogan.

Republicans, relieved when a federal executive shutdown used to be averted in past due September, see indicators of hope in Youngkin’s approval rankings, which have stayed above Biden’s.

Biden, who has not announced any plans to campaign in Virginia before Tuesday, recently sent a fundraising email on behalf of Virginia candidates and issued nearly two dozen endorsements.

Youngkin continues to be mentioned as a possible late entrant into the 2024 presidential race and hasn’t publicly shut down the prospect. He has been crossing the state for rallies with candidates on a bus tour to promote early voting.

At an look Thursday in Yorktown with Diggs, Youngkin mentioned it used to be time to “finish the work we started in 2021,” when he swept into office and Republicans retook the House.

“It’s time to unleash unlimited prosperity and opportunity in the Commonwealth of Virginia. It’s time for us to be that shining city on the hill where the rest of the nation says, “Yes, we can do it too,’” he mentioned.

Democrats have framed Tuesday’s stakes in in a similar fashion sweeping phrases.

“This election is about state power and the direction of Virginia’s future, and we’re certain an unchecked Republican trifecta would roll Virginia’s progress back decades,” mentioned Heather Williams, period in-between president of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee.