By Eric Bradner, CNN
Republicans had hoped to make sufficiently big gains amongst Latino voters in 2022, extending their inroads from two years in the past, that may essentially realign the political panorama in a number of battleground states — and the presidential map — in their favor.
But though Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis delivered on these hopes, profitable closely Latino counties that no Republican candidate for governor or president had received in a era, different Republicans couldn’t sustain along with his tempo.
Even with many races still to be called, exit polls and outcomes in some key House races confirmed the get together bettering on the margins, but not making the leap amongst Latino voters GOP strategists had sought. The outcomes of House races nonetheless unfolding in California and New York, in addition to Senate and governor’s races in Arizona and Nevada, will play a key function in figuring out the significance of this yr’s smaller shifts towards the GOP.
Democrats received two of three South Texas congressional races, all in the Rio Grande Valley, that have been broadly seen as a gauge of whether or not the GOP might construct on former President Donald Trump’s 2020 gains in a traditionally Democratic space.
Rep. Henry Cuellar, the most conservative Democrat in the House, posted a double-digit victory in the twenty eighth District, which stretches from San Antonio to his hometown of Laredo. And in the thirty fourth District, in the state’s southeastern tip — one other border district that features McAllen, Harlingen and Brownsville — Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez, who was operating in a brand new district, delivered a transparent victory over Republican Rep. Mayra Flores, who received a particular election this yr beneath the outdated district strains.
“The RED WAVE did not happen. Republicans and Independents stayed home,” Flores tweeted in the early Wednesday morning hours.
The solely GOP victory in the area got here from Monica De La Cruz, who received in the neighboring fifteenth District, which was drawn in final yr’s redistricting course of to be a GOP-leaning but aggressive seat.
Democrats noticed their victories in the area, after a deluge of Republican spending on the three races, as an indication the get together had held off the GOP in the largely Hispanic Rio Grande Valley after 2020.
“Even with these large investments, we showed the Republican party that South Texas is not their home,” Gonzalez stated at his victory get together, the Texas Tribune reported.
Latinos should not a monolith, and South Texas — like Florida — isn’t an ideal window into the broader Latino inhabitants. Voters there are sometimes extra culturally conservative — a actuality that explains Cuellar’s survival regardless of two hard-fought primaries towards a progressive challenger and a tricky common election whereas beneath the cloud of an FBI investigation. (In April, Cuellar’s lawyer stated federal authorities advised him that his consumer was not a goal of the investigation.)
Nationwide, Democrats received Latino voters — 60% to the GOP’s 39% — based on exit polls carried out for CNN and different news networks by Edison Research. That’s a slight improvement for Republicans over 2020.
Democrats’ strongest efficiency was amongst youthful Latinos and girls, whereas Republicans did higher with males and older voters.
The exit polls confirmed Democrats dominating amongst the 75% of Latino voters who stated abortion needs to be authorized, profitable that group by 58 share factors. The get together additionally averted large blame for an economic system that 69% of Latinos stated is truthful or poor, profitable these voters by 12 share factors.
But the most essential query about long-term developments about Latino voters is whether or not a marginal shift in the GOP’s favor this yr shall be vital sufficient to vary the political landscapes of presidential swing states equivalent to Arizona and Nevada, which, like Texas, have large Latino populations, largely of Mexican descent.
That query can’t be answered but: Both states are nonetheless counting votes in hard-fought races for governor and the Senate.
The largest cause for Republicans to have fun — and maybe one of the most essential outcomes of this yr’s midterm elections — is perhaps DeSantis, broadly considered as a possible 2024 presidential contender, delivering such a dominant victory in Florida that Democrats have been brazenly suggesting that the state is now successfully off the listing of presidential battlegrounds.
The most eye-popping end result in his blowout victory over Democrat Charlie Crist — and one which demonstrated the breadth of DeSantis’ attraction in the eyes of Sunshine State voters — got here in Miami-Dade County, which is closely Hispanic, notably of Cuban heritage, and traditionally a huge supply of Democratic votes.
Republicans had made gains there in latest years: Hillary Clinton defeated Trump there by 29 share factors in 2016. DeSantis did barely higher in the 2018 governor’s race, shedding the county by 21 factors. Trump made inroads there in 2020, shedding by simply 8 factors. But a GOP candidate for governor hadn’t really received Miami-Dade County since Jeb Bush in 2002.
The political actuality is easy: Democrats don’t have any lifelike path to victory in statewide races in Florida with out large wins in Miami-Dade County. That actuality makes the county’s end result an exclamation level on a dominant GOP efficiency in the state.
There have been different essential indicators in Florida, too: Another conventional Democratic stronghold received by DeSantis was Osceola County, a majority Latino county south of Orlando with a closely Puerto Rican inhabitants.
The-CNN-Wire
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