Gas prices in Florida could face roller coaster ride – Orlando Sentinel

As common gasoline prices have moved again above $3 a gallon in Florida, a tech firm that displays the gas trade foresees prices above $4 a gallon in 2023.

The Boston-based GasBuddy, in an annual outlook launched Wednesday, predicted that pump prices will peak at a median of $4.25 to $4.65 a gallon in Miami, $4.15 to $4.55 in Orlando and $4.10 to $4.45 in Tampa.

The peaks, barring surprising adjustments, seemingly would occur in the summer time, adopted by “normal seasonal fluctuations” with prices falling after Labor Day. GasBuddy forecast the nationwide common can be again all the way down to about $3.17 earlier than the beginning of 2024.

The common value of a gallon of standard unleaded Thursday in Florida was $3.12, whereas the nationwide common was $3.16, in accordance with the AAA auto membership.

Average prices hit $5 nationally and $4.89 in Florida in June earlier than steadily declining by means of a lot of the remainder of the yr. Prices have began to rise this week after dipping beneath a median of $3 in Florida.

Patrick De Haan, GasBuddy head of petroleum evaluation, stated in the report it’s “highly improbable” for a repeat of 2022, however “storm clouds” stay.

“2023 is not going to be a cakewalk for motorists. It could be expensive,” De Haan stated. “The national average could breach $4 a gallon as early as May — and that’s something that could last through much of the summer driving season.”

In the forecast, gasoline prices nationally could fall below $3 a gallon in February, climb to $3.99 by June, stay over $3.80 through the summer time and drop because the yr involves an finish.

GasBuddy’s forecast doesn’t assume “a severe recession,” however that “some level of economic reset will limit oil demand.” It cited uncertainty from China easing COVID-19 mandates, OPEC attempting to steadiness oil markets by slicing oil manufacturing and Russia’s persevering with conflict in Ukraine.

“The East Coast remains highly susceptible to Russia’s war on Ukraine, as European countries seek out supplies of oil and refined products from elsewhere, putting upward pressure on prices on the East Coast,” the report stated.

Other “unscheduled obstacles” could embody pipeline shutdowns and climate points, corresponding to hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico.

For the yr, the nationwide common is predicted to be $3.49 a gallon, down from a $3.96 common in 2022.

At that price, the common American family is predicted to spend $2,471 on gasoline in 2023, down from $2,748 in 2022.

GasBuddy, which acknowledges its forecast isn’t gospel, predicted the nationwide common can be $3.99 this yr, its lowest margin of error since first making an annual forecast in 2012.

The firm stated its “forecast has been above the actual outcome eight of 10 years, with just two years, 2018 and 2021, in which the forecast was lower than the actual outcome.”

GasBuddy famous prices are topic to seasonal will increase and reduces tied to refinery upkeep in the spring and fall and the Clean Air Act, which has been slowly eliminating some pollution from fuels.

Spring upkeep comes as refineries deplete their stock of winter-blend gasoline for a more-expensive summer time mix. Over the previous decade, common value will increase of 35 cents to 85 cents have been attributed to the change.

Florida’s common unleaded value sat just under $3 a gallon for many of the Christmas weekend. The West Palm Beach space had the very best common value Thursday at $3.29 a gallon, whereas the Panama City space had the bottom common at $2.92.