There are going to be about 10 whole folks watching this recreation. Florida State is coming off of its worst loss in latest reminiscence, dropping to Stetson at dwelling by 9 factors, whereas UCF misplaced at dwelling to UNC Asheville in 2OT after permitting an opposing participant to attain 40 factors. Both groups have a ton of newcomers, a ton of transferring items, and are nonetheless attempting to determine simply what precisely they’re and the best way to put their guys in one of the best place potential.
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We’ll see how each of those groups reply to dangerous losses Monday night time. This recreation can be on ESPN+ at 7 pm, reside from the Addition Financial Arena in Orlando, FL.
UCF Knights Breakdown
Florida State wasn’t the one group in Florida to drop a disappointing recreation at dwelling on Monday, as UCF misplaced to UNC Asheville in 2OT. While UNC-A had one of the best participant on the ground in Drew Pember, that’s not likely an excuse. UCF has expertise, it’s simply a variety of unproven expertise like Florida State. The Knights solely have 4 returning gamers, and two of them performed little to no basketball final season. It’s a complete bunch of newcomers which can be all attempting to determine the best way to play.
Of the returnees, CJ Walker and Darius Johnson are the one projected starters, however Walker has been coping with some undisclosed harm and his standing is up on the air, as is Johnson. I’m not anticipating both to play on this recreation so we’ll see. That’s placing UCF right into a high-profile recreation with no expertise within the system.
What they do have is a variety of transfers. They have Ithiel Horton (Pitt), Michael Durr (Indiana), Brandon Suggs (East Carolina), and Lahat Thioune (Utah) who all undertaking to be part of the rotation. Horton lit Florida State up final season with a 7/13 efficiency from 3, and he might present an identical efficiency right here if FSU would not get their 3-point protection discovered.
There are a few issues FSU ought to be capable of reap the benefits of. UNCA shot 26 free throws Monday night time, and FSU bought to the road 27 occasions towards Stetson. The large query is whether or not or not Florida State goes to hit its probabilities once they’re there.
They must also be capable of generate some turnovers and seize offensive rebounds. UCF turned it over 14 occasions towards a mean turnover-generating group, and in addition allowed 12 offensive rebounds to a group that was one of many 30 worst offensive rebounding groups within the nation final yr. FSU ought to hopefully be capable of reap the benefits of that.
Florida State Seminoles Breakdown
I talked after the sport Monday about simply how embarrassing a loss it was to fall to Stetson, however it’s been a very long time since FSU dropped its season opener towards a low-major faculty. The final time, it was November 2012 on the heels of FSU successful its first ACC Championship, and everybody was excited. Then South Alabama is available in and wins 76-71, first recreation of the yr.
FSU would go on to complete 18-16 general and 9-9 in ACC play. The solely different time FSU has misplaced the season opener since then was 2019, when the ‘Noles dropped on the road at Pittsburgh, in what was a really weird game. FSU would lose just 4 games the rest of the year. Definitely not getting those vibes.
Caleb Mills needs to be a little more aggressive as a scorer when he’s on the market. There are only a few defenders that may keep in entrance of him, and whereas I get he’s attempting to get everybody else concerned, at some level he simply going to need to take over.
Injury Report
Baba Miller remains to be suspended for the primary half of the season on account of NCAA guidelines.
Chandler Jackson is uncertain with a thumb harm.
Jaylan Gainey is out for the season with an ACL tear.
Jeremiah Bembry is out indefinitely with a again harm.
De’Ante Green is out indefinitely as he recovers from an ACL harm, although there’s an opportunity he’s again by late January, in accordance with Monday night time’s broadcast.
Cam’Ron Fletcher was noticed with a again brace on the bench Monday night time, and it seemed like he was enjoying via again spasms. He ought to nonetheless be enjoying towards UCF, although.
For UCF, CJ Walker, Darius Johnson, and Tyem Freeman had been all out with varied accidents Monday towards UNCA. Coach Dawkins had mentioned Walker ought to return quickly, however his standing remains to be up within the air for this recreation.
Projected Starters
UCF
G: Jahylon Young
Scroll to Continue
G: Ithiel Horton
G: Brandon Suggs
F: Taylor Hendricks
F: Michael Durr
Florida State
G: Caleb Mills
G: Tom House
G: Darin Green Jr.
F: Matthew Cleveland
C: Naheem McLeod
Keys to the Game
Naheem McLeod’s Impact
McLeod solely performed 10 minutes Monday night time towards a Stetson group that didn’t actually have any bigs, and he was notably upset about it. He ought to get extra alternative towards a UCF group that has a real 7-footer in Michael Durr, who performed 26 minutes Monday night time.
Whenever McLeod will get within the recreation, he has to make an influence. He can’t be having 1/5 video games with the dearth of depth FSU possesses proper now.
Protect the three
UCF just isn’t 3-point taking pictures group general, however the way in which FSU has defended the three not too long ago means it may be anybody’s day at any time. Ithiel Horton particularly can get sizzling. He’s a profession 39% shooter from deep, together with an insane 7/13 efficiency towards FSU final yr whereas he was at Pitt.
Florida State was burnt from 3 Monday night time, permitting Stetson to shoot 14/35, they’ll’t permit that type of efficiency once more in the event that they anticipate to win video games.
Consistent Offense
Florida State’s offense stagnated at occasions Monday night time, particularly when Stetson went zone. Obviously a part of it’s not having a variety of depth, however UCF can put up factors if you happen to allow them to, and it might be wanted for FSU to match them blow for blow, shot for shot. The large query is whether or not it not they’ll be capable of generate constant attractiveness.
Game Prediction
Florida State opened as a 1-point favourite, with an over/beneath of 144.5.
I’ve zero inclination on how this recreation goes to go. Florida State confirmed me just about nothing on Monday to be assured in them, however neither did UCF. I feel… I feel I’ll stick with FSU for now however I’m under no circumstances assured about it.
FSU 77 – UCF 75
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