Look at that SSWE or Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event in progress!
Such warming in the stratosphere on our facet of the world indicators BIG chilly waves roaring in round 2-2.5 weeks from now.
This will lock in a chilly sample total right here with winter precipitation threat at instances for about 4.5 weeks.
Cold stratosphere at the finish of March indicators a lot, a lot hotter sample after April 12 with burst of Sudden Summer.
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Here is all National Weather Service minor flooding information for rivers and streams in the space:Â Â
Flood Statement National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 1139 AM EST Thu Feb 23 2023 ...The Flood Warning is prolonged for the following rivers in Indiana... Tippecanoe River close to Delphi. Wabash River at Lafayette. ...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Indiana... Wildcat Creek close to Lafayette. .Rainfall quantities of one and a half to over three inches since Tuesday evening has introduced lowland flooding to higher parts of the Tippecanoe River and Wildcat Creek, and can carry lowland flooding alongside the Wabash beginning this afternoon and dealing downstream into this weekend that might final into early subsequent week alongside components of the center and decrease Wabash.
...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Tippecanoe River close to Delphi.
* WHEN...Until tomorrow morning.
* IMPACTS...At 8.0 ft, Low agricultural lands, river parks and a
few native roads flood alongside the Tippecanoe River. Oakdale Public
Access Site flooded.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 10:45 AM EST Thursday the stage was 7.8 ft.
- Forecast...The river is anticipated to rise above flood stage
late this afternoon to a crest of 8.1 ft this night. It
will then fall under flood stage simply after midnight tonight.
- Flood stage is 8.0 ft.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Wabash River at Lafayette.
* WHEN...Until Tuesday night.
* IMPACTS...At 17.0 ft, Lowland flooding in progress. Flood waters
shut SR 225 simply south of the Wabash River close to Battleground.
Walking and bike trails in Tapawingo Park space are flooded. Warren
CR 350 N in the Black Rock Preserve space flooded. Flood waters
close to Tippecanoe CR 950 W south of CR 75 S.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 10:30 AM EST Thursday the stage was 10.3 ft.
- Forecast...The river is anticipated to rise above flood stage
late this morning to a crest of 16.6 ft early tomorrow
afternoon. It will then fall under flood stage Tuesday
morning.
- Flood stage is 11.0 ft.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT TO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Wabash River at Covington.
* WHEN...From late tonight to Wednesday afternoon.
* IMPACTS...At 21.0 ft, Lanes to river residences west of South
River Road south of Covington flooded. Sandhill Road at Mud Run
simply northeast of Covington begins to flood. Extensive lowland
flooding in progress. Higher bottomlands flood.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 10:45 AM EST Thursday the stage was 10.2 ft.
- Forecast...The river is anticipated to rise above flood stage
late tonight to a crest of 21.0 ft early Sunday morning. It
will then fall under flood stage early Wednesday morning.
- Flood stage is 16.0 ft.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING...Eel River at North Manchester affecting Wabash, Miami, Whitley,
Cass IN and Kosciusko Counties.
* WHAT...Minor flooding is going on and minor flooding is forecast. * WHERE...Eel River at North Manchester. * WHEN...Until tomorrow morning. * IMPACTS...At 11.0 ft, The river is at flood stage, minor agricultural flooding happens. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 10:30 AM EST Thursday the stage was 11.1 ft. - Recent Activity...The most river stage in the 24 hours ending at 10:30 AM EST Thursday was 11.1 ft. - Forecast...The river is anticipated to rise to a crest of 11.2 ft this night. It will then fall under flood stage in a single day. - Flood stage is 11.0 ft. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
Iroquois River at Iroquois affecting Newton and Iroquois Counties.
...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL FURTHER
NOTICE...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Iroquois River from Near US-41 downstream to confluence
with Sugar Creek at Watseka, together with the Iroquois gauge.
* WHEN...From this afternoon till additional discover.
* IMPACTS...At 21.5 ft, County Road 1950N threatened north of
Watseka.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 10:00 AM CST Thursday the stage was 17.6 ft.
- Forecast...The river is anticipated to rise above flood stage
late this morning and crest close to 22.0 ft early Saturday
morning.
- Flood stage is eighteen.0 ft..
Yesterday, the warmth shifted from Texas eastward after temperatures reached as excessive as 100 in south Texas. Dallas hit 90 on Tuesday.
Widespread document heat occurred throughout the southern half of Indiana yesterday & all-time February excessive temperature data have been damaged in a number of cities in the southeastern U.S.
Meanwhile, it was document chilly in components of the West.
Violent twister outbreak is establishing Iowa to Kansas & Oklahoma Sunday-Sunday evening. This is kind of uncommon for February. The final time such an outbreak occurred in this area so early was March 1990.
Parameters are spectacular right this moment with high-end MODERATE RISK knowledge. We will see the place SPC goes with this in the coming days!
March 14-15, 1990 storm stories:
CIPS analog long-track twister knowledge exhibits growing potential primarily based on parameters in the database (matching comparable conditions).
We ended up dodging this in mid-March of 1990. It all occurred southwest of us the subsequent day as instability waned right here & the finest dynamics shifted to the northeast.
So, it appears like spherical of rainfall & a couple of t’storms Sunday evening with the heat entrance, then a break Monday morning.
Southeast winds go south & proceed to decide up considerably with gusts +35 mph.
Round of rain & embedded line of storms is feasible Monday afternoon-evening.
South to southwest winds could gust +40 mph at instances & temperatures could attain 60-67.
This floor low could drop to 976 mb over northeastern Iowa! That may be very low! In reality, over a 6-hour interval, from northern Kansas to Iowa, the low could drop from 990 mb to 977 mb…..close to bombogenesis.
The document heat, mixed with document moisture for February in the Plains, the close to/bomb storm all is constant with violent twister outbreak potential in the Plains.
Here, though we utterly dodged the 1990 outbreak, the pattern are for extreme climate threat right here.
Although CAPE doesn’t look spectacular at lower than 500 J/kg very excessive shear & upward rising movement does promote a possible SLIGHT RISK extreme situation with fast-moving QLCS squall line.
We will see! Over the previous 3 years, it has confirmed arduous to get a lot extreme threat in right here (heat or cool season) because it appears to all the time hinge on an excessive amount of rainfall & lack of CAPE forward of any storms.
You can see the tongue of heat:
Winds could gust +45 mph Monday evening.
Tuesday appears windy, however winds ought to diminish in the afternoon with highs of 41-50.
Another robust storm system arrives Wednesday-Thursday.
I appears like one other heat entrance with rain & some t’storms late Wednesday-Wednesday evening, then lull, then rain & t’storms Thursday.
Highs in the 50s to 60 Wednesday will give means to 60-65 Thursday.
We will see how far north & east the extreme climate threat will get.
Briefly colder climate Friday-Saturday (highs 40s) ought to give means to one other spherical of heat Sunday-Monday (March 5-6). Highs ought to climb again to the 60s with robust winds from the southwest.
We’ve acquired a shot at 70(s), as this storm nonetheless appears to monitor WAY far to the north March 7-8 interval. This may imply some extreme of extreme climate threat from the UP of Michigan to the Upper South. Parameters suggests a highly-unusual, very far northward-reaching SLIGHT RISK to the Canadian border.
QLCS squall line could happen with some extreme climate threat as analog & long-range knowledge assist very fast deepening of the floor low (potential bombogenesis).
Either THIS system will likely be the huge CHANGE-MAKER or a following system will likely be. Â
False Spring then comes to and finish.
Watch False Spring segway to dominant under to well-below regular temperatures for a lot of March & into early April.
Temperatures will drop +20 levels under regular at instances.
This might be an agricultural catastrophe in the South as document warmth now causes peaches to attain full blossom & start fruit set & different crops from blueberries to strawberries to bloom & set fruit.
Same factor occurred in 1996. Texas & Oklahoma noticed their highest February temperatures on document in the 90s to 100s, solely to see snow & ice in March.
In 1990, after historic heat with 1000s of day by day data damaged in the Plains & East in February to March, late March by means of early April noticed document chilly numbers at instances.
2018 noticed widespread document warmth (we noticed 69 in mid-February) throughout the central & japanese U.S., solely to see the first main snowstorm of the yr in the Northeast in early March. We additionally had up to 6.8″ snow fall on Easter.
1956 had record warmth & tornado outbreaks February-early March only to see snow & ice mid to late March & raw, cold weather with snow across the eastern U.S. in April.
These were all analog years when I first put this Fall-Winter-Spring outlook together back in late Summer & Fall. I just sided with 1996 too much in January to early February here with A LOT of snow then.
Above regular precipitation corresponds with the chilly, main to elevated snow & ice threat in March. Note how the precipitation goes under regular for very finish of March to early April.
Yes it is a factor! Watch for late season winter climate!
Snow & ice may prolong deep into the South. I feel accumulating snow & ice will happen right here in March & doubtlessly in early April.
We will probably get away of the colder sample in mid-April with burst of Sudden Summer. That is the case in our analog years. Severe climate ought to burst fourth, too!
That is what occurred in 1956, 1990, 1996 & 2018.
After lengthy steady, chilly stretch, extreme climate outbreaks out of the blue:
April 19, 1996 (hail occasions preceded this SPC HIGH RISK outbreak):
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