Dallas inside threat for disruptive ice storms across Southern Plains this week

DALLAS – A cussed battle between a large arctic air mass that has settled into the Northern Plains and the ever-present warming results of the Gulf of Mexico are going to spend days duking it out across the Southern Plains and mid-South this week, making a multiple-day threat for disruptive freezing rain and different wintry-weather threats.

Winter Storm Watches are in impact for components of Northern Texas, together with the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex, Waco and Wichita Falls. Winter Weather Advisories are in impact for the Oklahoma City space.

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Precipitation will get going Monday morning, with a light-weight drizzle attainable alongside the Interstate 35 hall from Oklahoma City to Dallas. With temperatures beneath freezing, this would probably fall as freezing drizzle, in response to the FOX Forecast Center. 

At the identical time, precipitation will develop in West Texas, however the forecast stays difficult. With the arctic frontal boundary draped across the area, the place the boundary of freezing air sits throughout this time is essential. Areas effectively south of the entrance will keep heat sufficient for only a chilly rain, nevertheless it’s probably freezing rain simply to the north of this line. This fast paced band of precipitation will shift east to the I-35 hall by noon, and transfer east out of Texas by the night. Up to 0.10″ of ice accretion will be possible with this first wave.

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A second, more impactful wave of precipitation will begin Tuesday morning, with again a large area of precipitation to break out in West Texas. Continued push of colder air in wake of the arctic front will allow the freezing line to inch a bit further south, well past the I-20 corridor. 

The FOX Forecast Center believes this area is where impacts could be the greatest, as potentially up to 0.50″ of ice accretion attainable alongside a line from Abilene, Texas eastward into Northern Texas and Southern Oklahoma. The precise location of the freezing line, which is able to probably wobble north and south all through the day Tuesday, can be key in figuring out the place the best impacts happen. 

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Right now, it seems the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex can be proper on the sting of that line, with upwards of 0.25 inches of ice accretion attainable. Should the freezing line transfer additional south, these numbers may rise. Forecast fashions additionally disagree on the quantity of precipitation that happens, and this is resulting in increased than normal forecast uncertainty.

Texas freezing rain threat holds into Wednesday

From Tuesday into Wednesday, the FOX Forecast heart expects continued precipitation to fall across most of Texas. While precipitation will start to taper off in depth, the presence of freezing drizzle will proceed to complicate the forecast, as a number of hours of freezing drizzle Tuesday evening into Wednesday may result in a treacherous commute Wednesday morning.

 Freezing rain will even be attainable across components of Arkansas and Western Tennessee, together with Little Rock and Memphis. This will probably happen late Tuesday into Wednesday. Ice totals may attain upwards of 0.25 inches in this area, resulting in energy outages and harmful journey.

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During the day Wednesday, temperatures will start to thaw out, due to an approaching climate system. 

Temperatures will heat above freezing by Wednesday afternoon, ending the threat for further ice accretion. But with temperatures dropping again beneath freezing in a single day, refreezing can be attainable Wednesday evening into Thursday, which may result in a number of cases of black ice for the Thursday morning commute across most of Western and Northern Texas.

Overall, the forecast calls for upwards of 0.25-0.50 inches of ice to accrete beginning alongside the I-20 hall in West Texas, stretching east in the direction of I-35, and ultimately into components of Southeastern Oklahoma and Southern Arkansas. A second space of ice upwards of 0.25 inches can be more and more probably across components of Arkansas and Western Tennessee.

Generally, ice accretions of lower than 0.25 inches are thought of to be a nuisance, however impacts start to become disruptive as soon as quantities shut in on half an inch or extra.

Ice Impacts Explainer

(FOX Weather)

At round 0.5 inches, energy outages can change into quite a few, and driving is taken into account hazardous.

Dangerous journey is probably going, particularly throughout commute instances, together with some energy outages. This will probably be a memorable ice storm for some, and there’s a risk that some areas may attain the edge of crippling ice in extra of 0.50″, should the cold air sink further south than forecast models suggest, or precipitation falls in greater amounts than forecast.

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The potential for disruptive climate has some states making ready for the mess within the week to come.

ERCOT, Texas’ electric power grid manager, said it is monitoring the threat of frozen precipitation for the Lone Star State but believes it will have enough electrical generation to meet the demands of its more than 26 million customers.

Forecast fashions present the threat of precipitation diminishing by the point the primary weekend of February arrives.