Cowboys vs. Commanders time, odds, TV: How to watch, live stream, keys, prediction for Thanksgiving battle

FRISCO, Texas —  On Thanksgiving Thursday, Dallas (7-3) will play host to a well-recognized, NFC East rival within the Washington Commanders (4-7) at AT&T Stadium, an atmosphere that has no longer been hospitable to visiting squads. Dallas is in ownership of the NFL’s longest energetic house successful streak at 12 and the second-longest in franchise historical past, and Dallas has received its 4 house video games this season by way of a blended rating of 160-50. The Cowboys lead the NFL in house scoring offense (40.0 issues in keeping with recreation), house level differential (+110) and residential time of ownership (37:33). 

Should the Cowboys pop out with some other house win on Thursday by way of 20 or extra issues, they’d create NFL historical past as the primary staff to win its first 5 house contests of a season by way of that margin. They are these days certainly one of handiest six groups in league historical past to win each and every in their first 4 video games of a season by way of 20 or extra. Just 4 of the former 5 did so in a season wherein a championship recreation existed, however of the ones 4, 3 reached the league’s championship finale in the similar yr.  

Teams that received each and every of first 4 houses video games by way of 20+ issues
NFL historical past

Here’s a complete breakdown of Thursday afternoon’s Thanksgiving Day matchup, a take a look at whether or not or no longer the Commanders can stay alongside of the Cowboys. 

How to watch

• When: Thursday, Nov. 23 | 4:30 p.m. ET
• Location: AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas) 
• TV: CBS | Live move: Paramount+
• Follow: CBS Sports App
• Odds: Cowboys -11; O/U 48.5 (by way of Caesars Sportsbook)

When the Commanders have the ball

On paper, it will seem Parsons and the Cowboys defensive entrance, which leads the NFL with a 47.4% quarterback force price, have some other sturdy alternative to pad their numbers towards Commanders first-time beginning quarterback Sam Howell. He is the 2023 NFL season’s maximum sacked quarterback as he has been taken down 51 occasions in 11 video games. That overall places him on tempo to be sacked 79 occasions, which might damage the NFL single-season file set by way of 2002 first total select quarterback David Carr within the Houston Texans’ first yr of life as a variety franchise. 

The 2022 fifth-round select, who made his NFL debut within the two groups’ ultimate matchup is taking part in a emblem of soccer that hasn’t ever been observed ahead of in 2023 below offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy. Howell leads the NFL in move makes an attempt (442), completions (295), passing yards (3,038) and interceptions (12) in 2023, one thing no quarterback has performed in a complete, unmarried season since a minimum of the 1970 AFL/NFL merger. 

Sam Howell this season

Howell’s stat sheet may be most probably track to Cowboys second-year cornerback DaRon Bland. He tied the NFL single-season file for interception go back touchdowns together with his fourth of 2023 on Sunday in a 33-10 Week 11 street victory on the Carolina Panthers, and he leads the NFL passer ranking towards (15.9) whilst co-leading the league in interceptions (six). With Bland taking part in at an NFL Defensive Player of the Year-caliber degree, 2019 NFL Defensive Player of the Year cornerback Stephon Gilmore reverse him and Parsons up entrance, Howell wishes to be steer clear of making rushed choices. 

He’ll most probably see an even quantity of zone protection from defensive coordinator Dan Quinn’s protection regardless of the Cowboys operating man-to-man protection on 37.4% of defensive performs, the second-highest price within the NFL in the back of handiest the Cleveland Browns 44% price. Howell is finishing 61% of his passes towards Cover-1, conventional guy, protection with six landing passes and no interceptions. Against Cover-3, conventional zone, protection, he’s finishing 73% of his passes with just one landing and 5 interceptions.

When the Cowboys have the ball

The Commanders have the NFL’s worst scoring protection, permitting 27.7 issues in keeping with recreation. The Cowboys have the NFL’s No. 2 scoring offense, averaging 30.2 issues in keeping with recreation — handiest 0.3 issues in keeping with recreation clear of tying the Miami Dolphins for the NFL’s highest-scoring assault. In the Super Bowl technology, since 1966, a top-two scoring offense has squared off towards a bottom-two scoring protection 44 occasions a minimum of 10 video games right into a season.

The top-two offense is 42-2 in the ones video games, having received seven consecutive such matchups courting to 2012. The vital explanation why for the Cowboys offense scoring up to they’re is modest: Dak Prescott is taking part in like a reputable NFL MVP candidate, rating within the peak 5 in a large number of key metrics whilst guiding Dallas to a 7-3 file up to now this season.

Dak Prescott this season

“The way that I feel, the confidence I have in this group, myself, [the] zone, I guess you could call it., whatever it is, [I’ve] talked about it over and over,” Prescott stated Tuesday. “The coaches, the chemistry of this team, [is] by far the best I’ve ever felt, and it’s not just me. It’s a lot of the things around me. Being a leader, a lot of times you’re trying to control a lot of those things, trying to make sure things around you are good, taking up in places this and that. That’s the minimal of my job right now, is handling things outside my job, which obviously makes it easier for me. Moreso than ever.”

Prescott must even have quite a few taking part in at house towards an NFC East rival, particularly the Commanders. He has received all 5 of his house get started towards Washington and has thrown 13 touchdowns and no interceptions in the ones conferences. Eight of the ones touchdowns have come within the ultimate two such video games, matchups the Cowboys received by way of a blended rating of 103-30. Prescott has received 14 consecutive divisional house video games total, tied for the fourth-longest streak by way of a beginning quarterback for the reason that 1970 AFL/NFL merger. 

Dak Prescott at house
Career vs. Washington

Cowboys fourth-year, Pro Bowl huge receiver CeeDee Lamb may be taking part in the most productive ball of his profession in 2023: his 1,013 receiving yards are tied with Philadelphia Eagles Pro Bowl wideout A.J. Brown for the second-most within the NFL. His 74 catches are the sixth-most. Lamb is on tempo for 118 catches and 1,722 receiving yards this season, either one of which might shatter Pro Football Hall of Famer Michael Irvin’s single-season franchise information of 111 catches and 1,603 receiving yards he set in 1995, the Cowboys’ ultimate Super Bowl title-winning marketing campaign. 

Prescott, Lamb and the remainder of the Cowboys offense will most probably see a powerful quantity of guy protection on Thursday for the reason that Commanders play the ninth-most guy protection (29.3% of defensive performs) within the NFL. That advantages Dallas since Prescott’s passer ranking (118.0, fifth-most within the NFL), yards in keeping with move try (8.8, fourth-most within the NFL) and of entirety share (69.2%, second-most within the NFL in the back of handiest Russell Wilson’s 69.5% price) all are top-five figures amongst NFL quarterbacks when going through guy protection. He has 8 passing touchdowns, handiest two off the league lead, and one interception when throwing into guy protection. 

Prediction

While McCarthy known as statistics and analytics merely “bright lights,” they all are shining in prefer of the Cowboys from location to all levels of soccer, even particular groups. Dallas rookie kicker Brandon Aubrey set the file for probably the most made box targets in a row to get started an NFL profession at 21 and counting. Cowboys Pro Bowl punter Bryan Anger’s 45 web yards in keeping with punt is the second-best within the NFL in the back of handiest Raiders Pro Bowl punter A.J. Cole. 

Meanwhile, Washington punter Tress Way’s 42 web yards in keeping with punt ranks fifteenth within the league, and Commanders kicker Joey Slye’s 80% box function conversion price (16-20) is tied for the seventh-worst within the NFL out of 32 kickers with a minimum of 10 box function makes an attempt this season. The Cowboys have benefits in all places, and the scoreboard will replicate that during Week 12. 

Score: Cowboys 41, Commanders 16