Conference realignment slows as Big 12, Pac-12 may be realizing they’re worth more together than apart

Conference realignment has grow to be an more and more irritating try and squeeze {dollars} out of a system that has consolidated sources on the prime. The greatest manufacturers and many of the cash are amongst these 32 groups within the Big Ten and SEC — and the networks that personal their main tv rights (ESPN and Fox).

Everything else has grow to be a scramble to the purpose that one supply throughout the Big 12 stated a worst-case state of affairs would be nothing taking place within the league. That would imply staying at 12 groups with BYU, Cincinnati, Houston and UCF In the fold after Texas and Oklahoma depart earlier than the 2025 season.

Some Big 12 athletic administrators are anxious that the convention’s media rights {dollars} will not stretch far sufficient so as to add more applications with out their payouts being diminished. Outgoing commissioner Bob Bowlsby testified final summer season that Texas and Oklahoma introduced 50% of the rights worth to the league.

The identical actuality is rising for the Pac-12. Even with Oregon and Washington — the 2 greatest model names remaining among the many 22 faculties nonetheless within the Pac-12 and Big 12 — there’s not a lot on which the convention can capitalize.

Do the mathematics. There appears to be a consensus forming amongst key events that the Big 12 and Pac-12 would be worth more together, in some type, than they’re individually.

“Let’s say the blood-letting stops at SC and UCLA. Right there, you can’t get an increase in rights fees because you lose the [L.A.] market,” stated Bobby Hacker a West Coast legal professional and sports activities media marketing consultant who spent 18 years as vp of enterprise and authorized affairs for Fox Sports.

Hacker continued: “Now you might have the Pac-12, which had much less of valued rights deal than any Power Five group. They’ve now misplaced the L.A. market. There are not any groups right here with which to exchange it. And when you say, ‘We’re going to get San Diego State,’ there’s push again within the convention as a result of a San Diego State or Fresno State do not have the educational cache that the faculties had.

“If Oregon and Washington go, Katy bar the door. The option to my mind’s eye is Big 12 merger.”

A stand-down mentality seems to have emerged … for now.

The Pac-12 is in unique negotiations with Fox and ESPN. The Big 12 continues to review enlargement. New Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark made that official together with his “open for business” remark at his convention’s media days final week.

The Big 12 needs to be hipper, youthful, cooler. There’s not a lot that is hip, younger and funky about an Iowa State-Cincinnati sport.

Conference realignment news & notes

SEC presidents aren’t eager to maneuver past 16 groups at this second. That suggests any determination Notre Dame makes concerning the Big Ten goes to be remoted and won’t essentially influence the SEC.

That focuses consideration again on Oregon and Washington, the 2 greatest “available” items. The purpose they’re not already atop the Big 12 checklist is as a result of they imagine they’ve choices centered across the Big Ten. One drawback? Multiple sources inform CBS Sports neither the Ducks nor Huskies nor the pair convey sufficient worth to the Big Ten (within the $80 million to $100 million vary per 12 months).

Even if the Big Ten is just not open for enterprise, why would Oregon or Washington signal a grant of rights with the Pac-12 understanding the convention is weak? That’s how the Pac-12 bought on this predicament: Former commissioner Larry Scott signed a 12-year deal in 2012 that appeared profitable on the time however locked the convention into below-market valuation.

Some have instructed, wherever the faculties find yourself, they be allowed an “out” within the grant of rights contract ought to an eventual supply come from the Big Ten. But why would any convention knowingly devalue the primary supply of its income?

Regarding the Pac-12, ESPN and/or Fox do not essentially wish to overspend on a property they’ve already determined is way much less helpful than the Big Ten and SEC. It’s additionally no positive factor ESPN will get any of the Big Ten’s secondary rights. If they do not have the Big Ten, maybe that opens their pockets for College Football Playoff enlargement, the subsequent main school rights deal on the docket (after the Pac-12 and Big 12). 

“I’ve sort of refocused my thinking. I think we’re no longer really talking about college sports through the lens of the NCAA, the Power Five,” Hacker stated. “College sports is now completely controlled by ESPN and Fox.”

“It’s definitely not ironclad.” That’s what Kansas City sports activities legal professional Mit Winter had this keep concerning the ACC’s grant of rights as it pertains to the continuing angst about that convention’s faculties quickly being $50 million yearly behind the Big Ten and SEC. He continued: “It would be costly to litigate it and try to get out of it with an uncertain result. I don’t think anyone actually wants to get involved in that fight. If they were to get out, they would just agree to some sort of monetary settlement, which would be a huge number.”

That determine has been estimated as wherever from $100 million to $500 million. Clemson, Florida State, Miami, North Carolina and Virginia are the applications talked about most frequently as candidates for different conferences.

“There is definitely no sure-fire loophole in the grant of rights,” Winter added.

The ACC borrowed closely from the Big 12 in shaping its grants of rights, sources inform CBS Sports. That settlement is holding Texas and Oklahoma within the league by the 2024 season. Winter stated he had enter in drafting that Big 12 doc. Here’s a PDF of the unique Big 12 grant of rights signed in 2012. Notice within the “agreement to membership” the place the members “agree” to remain together for 99 years.

However, that’s totally different than the precise grant of rights, which states any college leaving the convention should pay the ultimate two years’ worth of income distribution. In this case, Texas and Oklahoma would each owe roughly $90 million to depart early for the SEC. Now you are getting an concept of why, thus far, each faculties have dedicated to the Big 12 by the time period of their settlement.

If you wish to be a conspiracy theorist, contemplate the chance that this spherical of realignment might result in one much less main convention, which probably means one much less assured spot in an expanded playoff. The unique 12-team playoff enlargement proposal, rejected in January, included spots for the highest six convention champions. A merger of two powers or collapse of 1 creates larger alternatives for at-large spots for the Big Ten and SEC.

That was the underplayed angle when the Big 12 rebuilt itself final 12 months, whether or not it could stay within the Power Five after being reconstituted with Group of Five faculties. That would possibly be answered in actual time. Should the Pac-12 be absorbed by the Big 12 in some type, that may assist strengthen the case of it being a Power Four league.

With solely 4 main conferences, would there be a temptation to distribute uneven playoff shares to leagues beneath the Big Ten and SEC? Currently, the Power Five conferences are contracted to obtain the identical cash — about $57 million every — by the 12 years of the CFP deal that expires after the 2025 season. The 65 Group of Five groups break up $83 million.

Another instance of that widening hole: With the addition of USC and UCLA, the projected annual worth of the Big Ten deal now goes as much as about $1.2 billion per 12 months. That means the present Pac-12 rights must improve nearly 2.5 instances ($600 million per 12 months) to achieve half of what the Big Ten will be incomes. In its newest rights offers, the entire MLB contract went up 19%. The NFL elevated its rights 63%. The Pac-12 must balloon its rights 240% to get to half of the Big Ten.

“They’re not going to get there,” one government stated of the Pac-12.

That type of delta between leagues impacts potential to rent the very best coaches, educational counselors, psychological well being specialists (Ohio State, for instance, has a sports activities psychologist for every of its 36 sports activities), nutritionists and energy coaches. For starters.