Conference realignment: Phil Knight resorts to cold calling for Oregon as Pac-12, Big 12, ACC seek lifelines

The true affect of this newest spherical of convention realignment is the picture of one of many world’s strongest sports activities figures “working the phones.” That’s how one supply this week described Phil Knight’s stage of desperation.

A advertising genius, benefactor, philanthropist and multi-billionaire, the Shoe Dog himself is outwardly utilizing all his sources to discover a residence for Oregon, a program Knight has made some of the recognizable faculty sports activities manufacturers as a de facto offshoot of his Nike empire.

Knight has been diminished to cold-calling telemarketer. And that is a tragic state of affairs.

The migration of USC and UCLA to the Big Ten in 2024 has made it such. In the previous week, now we have once more been reminded of the ruthlessness of this method.

The Pac-12 could or could not survive, however after the lack of its two flagship packages, it’s without end altered. All that with a reminder that the ACC is scrambling to maintain its high groups, whereas the Big 12 could also be on its fourth spherical of reorganization since 2010.

What we’re witnessing in actual time is the consolidation of the very best manufacturers atop the game. Everything else be damned. When Knight is being diminished to speed-dialing to save his Ducks, effectively, that takes potential exclusion to one other stage.

You could have seen: The SEC and Big Ten are a Notre Dame (or so) away from staging their very own playoff. Maybe they do not even want the Fighting Irish, who’re once more deciding whether or not to be a part of a convention after 130 years of independence.

What you’ll be able to see is entry and relevance slipping away for all however the elites — and people fortunate sufficient to be of their conferences. Certain ACC faculties are freaking out. They are being $50 million per yr behind the SEC and Big Ten in annual rights charges.

One trade supply stated it would take $500 million for a college to exit the ACC given the league’s ironclad grant of rights that retains faculties within the convention till 2036. You should buy lots of famous person coaches, $1 million coordinators, amenities and swag copters for that sort of cash.

Some of the strain has shifted to boosters. Will they make up the distinction? Can the present price of spend be sustained?

A supply at one high-resource soccer program says the donors are tapped out.

Someday quickly, the SEC and Big Ten might resolve to flex by funding 95 scholarships as a substitute of the present 85. There is likely to be some exterior the highest two conferences who can sustain, however at what value?

Add to all of it that the management and pondering from the 4 latest Power Five commissioners – all employed since 2020 — is extra diverse than ever earlier than.

Last week, CBS Sports introduced a three-part collection on the way forward for faculty soccer. One of the conclusions? The 130 FBS faculties will break free from the NCAA, maybe ahead of later.

Now, that quantity appears smaller, extra perilous. Maybe 50-80 will make the minimize.  You can see why Knight is sweating swooshes.

This was all the time sure to occur. Folks freaked out when the SEC added Arkansas and South Carolina in 1991. Same for the Big Ten including Penn State in 1990. The Southwest Conference collapsed on itself due to a number of NCAA violations. The Big 12 emerged in 1996, then nearly fell aside. Only six authentic members stay (Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech). Big East soccer resulted in 2013 as the convention reformed.

Now, the SEC and Big Ten have a lot of the energy and leverage given there has by no means been a gathering of manufacturers on the high of the sport like has been assembled in these conferences.

What’s left is a mad rush by the opposite main conferences to seize the most important remaining manufacturers. No different convention can deliver to the desk what the SEC and Big Ten will by 2024-25. The battle now could be to see whether or not a number of of the ACC, Big 12 and Pac-12 can amass sufficient notable packages to maintain the SEC and Big Ten from staging a reputable playoff on their very own.

That brings us again to Knight’s cold calling. It’s taking place in a world that would go away Oregon and Washington with no likelihood to compete for nationwide championships. A world that now thinks nothing of flying volleyball gamers throughout 4 time zones to play a match. A world that has stripped two Power Five conferences of their soul in consecutive summers.

Oregon and Washington are the 2 greatest soccer packages “in play” contemplating the Pac-12 is down to 10 groups; nonetheless, there’s a purpose they have not been thought of prominently in realignment. Industry sources say neither brings requisite worth to the Big Ten ($80 million-$100 million per yr). The Pac-12 faculties most prominently talked about for the Big 12 are the so-called “Four Corners” faculties: Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Utah.

The Big 12 has been advised by TV rights advisors that the 2 most necessary issues for growth are model and geography. Geography pushed Oregon and Washington to the margins. (That does not imply the likes of Arizona and Arizona are essentially “brands.”)

If the Big 12 expands, it would not essentially be for cash however somewhat survival and relevancy. One high-profile trade supply known as the distinction between an expanded Big 12 or Pac-12 “a coin flip.” Think of the rationale for growth extra this manner: Can a reputable playoff might be staged with out Oregon and Washington being allowed to compete for a spot?

ESPN type of answered that query when it thought nothing final summer time of throwing the Big 12 on the scrap heap as Texas and Oklahoma moved to the SEC.

The community was telling us with out telling us that the world would not finish if the likes of Oklahoma State, Iowa State and TCU, amongst others, didn’t get an opportunity to end within the high 4 of the College Football Playoff. The query was additional answered when the Pac-12 was marginalized final week.

Ratings matter. They matter extra when a 9-3 Oklahoma from the SEC may need a greater likelihood of getting right into a playoff than a 12-1 Oklahoma State from the Big 12.

One trade supply known as Oregon and Washington “tweeners” in realignment. They are actually not USC and UCLA when it comes to branding and marketability, however they don’t seem to be Arizona and Arizona State, both. That’s what realignment has revealed: The actual issues that make faculty soccer related to the one folks that matter — TV executives, programmers, advertisers — are being uncovered in growing and particular element.

Without Oregon and Washington, the Pac-12 may disintegrate. With them, it could not matter.

Conference realignment notes

The subsequent main focus is the Big Ten asserting its new billion-dollar TV deal. That might are available a gala, maybe a rollout splash on the league’s media days later this month. The Big Ten could also be accomplished increasing. It does not matter, actually, as a result of Notre Dame has time and leverage on its aspect. If it decides the cash is just too huge to deny and/or entry to a playoff turns into too tough to maintain success, it could be a part of the Big Ten.

Any conclusion to this spherical of realignment that leaves the brand new Big 12 entire is a win for the league. It is proud of the 12 present groups going ahead in 2025. The worst-case fallback for the Pac-12 is a few type of hybrid merger with the Mountain West. That’s what can be left for two soccer powers in Oregon and Washington that mixed have received a nationwide championship, performed for two titles since 2010 and took part in a mixed 5 Rose Bowls since 2001. Those two faculties are additionally the Pac-12’s solely members within the CFP.

A merger between the Big 12 and Pac-12 stays a chance, however … a supply advised CBS Sports the method of finalizing its membership — not less than from the Big 12 aspect — might be accomplished in weeks, not months.

Of the 4 new Big 12 faculties (BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, UCF), three are from the American. That varieties a part of narrative surrounding the Pac-12’s path ahead as the league went to market early this week for its TV rights. Why would you need to go to a convention whose membership is one-quarter Group of Five groups? Why danger “momentary” stability for the historical past and custom of Pac-12?

Why certainly? The Pac-12 goes to market with ESPN and Fox with a ten groups which have pledged no loyalty to one another. The Big 12 already has been hovering, prepared to pluck members from the West Coast. But rightsholders are already asking: What are we bidding on? What faculties are going to be there?

Clemson, Florida State, Miami, North Carolina and Virginia from the ACC have been talked about as doable realignment dance companions, however not less than they’re in a convention with a TV deal.  This reveals an extra actuality: It actually is a scramble now. Superconferences are right here and never going anyplace. Insert Notre Dame and perhaps Stamford (as a accomplice for ND), Clemson and Florida State or Miami. Suddenly, a two-conference playoff turns into a actuality. Everything else might be an unsavory Group of Six or Seven. At that time, the apparent play is for a brand new subdivision to type that phases its personal playoff. The cash — not big cash — can be there.