College Football Playoff, bowl predictions 2023: Paths the nine remaining contenders must follow

The math is not that tricky. The record of College Football Playoff contenders is right down to nine this final week of the steady season. That’s the selection of Power Five methods with one or no losses. That’s now not exclusionary. Last 12 months presently, there have been best seven groups in rivalry.

This 12 months, 5 of the nine most probably keep an eye on their very own future: Georgia, Ohio State, Michigan, Washington and Florida State. Then you’ve got two with CFP revel in (Oregon, Alabama) and two would-be inexperienced persons to the CFP (Texas, Louisville). In the earlier nine years of the CFP, best 14 colleges (filling 36 general spots) have performed for the nationwide championship.

That’s exclusionary, however it may not be for lengthy; it will get more uncomplicated subsequent 12 months in the expanded 12-team playoff. For now, listed here are the flooring laws:

• Being undefeated will get you in. An undefeated Power Five convention champion hasn’t ever been neglected.
• A non-conference champion must “unequivocally” be one in every of the 4 highest groups.
• The similar is going for a 2nd workforce from a convention already in the box.
• Two losses? You’re all however out. It’s came about as soon as in the BCS generation (LSU, 2007) and that used to be a genetic mutation the place the whole lot simply fell proper for the Tigers.
• The CFP Selection Committee can do no matter it desires.

For instance, power of time table? That word is indexed 4 instances in the committee’s variety protocol, but a unmarried metric or selection of metrics to measure time table power is rarely indexed. That leaves the variety procedure as much as the creativeness of every committee member.

Satisfied?

Within the nine remaining contenders is subset of a most sensible 3: Georgia, Michigan and Ohio State can conceivably “afford” a loss and nonetheless keep in the most sensible 4. A detailed loss to Alabama in the SEC Championship Game must give pause for the Bulldogs.

Meanwhile, Ohio State and Michigan have dominated the Big Ten as though Woody Hayes and Bo Schembechler have been nonetheless roaming the sidelines. The league is basically down this 12 months, and the two colleges have performed a complete of 3 ranked groups up to now. However, a blended level differential of 590 has to imply one thing.

No convention has ever positioned more than one groups in the box over consecutive seasons. It may occur this 12 months out of the Big Ten. It may occur for the 3rd consecutive 12 months general (SEC in 2021, Big Ten in 2022).

The nine have nestled in a pleasing, tidy pod since Louisville misplaced via 17 at Pittsburgh on Oct. 14. The Cardinals have been bordering on afterthought at that time till Tennessee, Oklahoma, Missouri and Ole Miss ultimately took their 2nd losses.

The nine contenders input Rivalry Week with a blended profitable streak of 108 video games. That will trade, after all, as no less than six of the nine are confident of taking part in different some other ahead of Selection Sunday.

The maximum undefeated Power Five convention groups we will be able to have is 4 heading into the CFP. Ah, however there may be an Armageddon state of affairs the place 8 groups are all 12-1.

College Football Playoff contenders

No. 1 Georgia (11-0): Already in the SEC Championship Game in opposition to Alabama. Win out over Georgia Tech and Bama, and UGA is again in the playoff. As discussed, the Dawgs are so firmly entrenched it is imaginable they may lose as soon as and nonetheless get in. Amazingly, the “better” loss can be this week to Georgia Tech. The Dawgs may lose to the Yellowjackets and nonetheless pass on and win the SEC identify for a 3rd immediately 12 months. The SEC champion has now not been neglected of the BCS/CFP since 2005. Losing to Georgia Tech, even though, may power the committee to consider carefully.

It will get difficult otherwise if Georgia loses to Alabama. A 2nd workforce from a convention has been in the BCS/CFP thrice since 2011. However, usually, the committee favors convention champions over groups that lose the ones video games. Things get sticky if Florida State and Washington, plus the Ohio State-Michigan winner, end undefeated. That would account for 3 of the 4 spots with a one-loss Georgia competing in opposition to Alabama, the Ohio State-Michigan loser and most likely Texas as a one-loss Big 12 champion. In that state of affairs, Texas may get the fourth spot.

No. 2 Ohio State (11-0): Beat Michigan and Iowa, and the Buckeyes are in the box. As with the Wolverines, a loss to the Hawkeyes in the Big Ten Championship Game more than likely dooms OSU. A hotly contested loss to Michigan may make it inconceivable for the committee to forget about Ohio State. It all is dependent what occurs round OSU. If Georgia, Washington, Texas and Florida State all win, there most probably may not be a place for a the Buckeyes in the event that they lose to the Wolverines. If Georgia, Washington and Florida State all pass undefeated, Ohio State could not get in with out profitable the Big Ten. Basically, the extra one-loss groups left amongst the ones nine advantages the Ohio State-Michigan loser. 

No. 3 Michigan (11-0): Beat Ohio State and Iowa, and the Wolverines are in the box. As with the Buckeyes, a loss to the Hawkeyes in the Big Ten Championship Game more than likely dooms UM. If there’s a loss coming, it is more than likely higher for the Big Ten that Michigan beats Ohio State given the Buckeyes have constantly been ranked forward of the Wolverines via the committee. On the floor, that provides the league the highest probability to get two in. Actually, let’s make it simple for the embattled Big Ten. If Michigan and Ohio State take it to a few overtimes, the winner is in at 13-0 with the loser having a look attractive at 11-1 as a non-champion.

No. 4 Washington (11-0): Beat Washington State and probably Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship Game, and the Huskies develop into the first Pac-12 workforce to go into the CFP in seven years. Anything wanting that places Washington at risk. The committee in the end valued Washington’s power of victories striking it No. 4 in the ratings this week forward of Florida State. A loss to Wazzu would indisputably get rid of the Huskies. A loss to Oregon can be extra decent and tie the season sequence 1-1, however the pageant for the Huskies may conceivably be one-loss groups from the Big Ten (non-champion), ACC (if Louisville wins) and SEC (if Alabama wins); each Big Ten groups and Georgia are already ranked forward of Washington.

No. 5 Florida State (11-0): The finish of Jordan Travis’ faculty occupation diminishes FSU’s probabilities to win out. The damage adjustments the Seminoles’ outlook. however now not their truth. Florida State can not have enough money to lose. The Noles face one in every of the hardest paths of any of the remaining contenders. FSU must first win at Florida in The Swamp (at night time) ahead of beating Louisville in the ACC Championship Game. Now, insert backup Tate Rodemaker into the equation. He turns out succesful, however Travis used to be competing for a Heisman Trophy.

No. 6 Oregon (10-1): With one loss already, there is just one trail for the Ducks. Oregon must beat Oregon State and Washington to get in. That creates a bookend CFP revel in. The Ducks have been in the first CFP and can be in the final Football Four ahead of it expands. Since the Washington loss, Oregon has seemed find it irresistible belong in the most sensible 4, possibly forward of the Huskies. The Ducks could have an opportunity to turn out it subsequent Friday in Las Vegas. As is stands, additionally they have the hardest remaining highway. Oregon is the best workforce in this record that has to defeat two groups in the most sensible 16 of the CFP Rankings to get into the playoff.

No. 7 Texas (10-1): Leaning towards longshot standing at the second. The Longhorns have not such a lot as clinched a place in the Big 12 Championship Game. There are 3 groups underneath them at the second who’ve a shot as neatly. Here’s the tiebreaker with best Oklahoma State controlling its personal future if Texas beats Texas Tech. Nevertheless, the ‘Horns must win out in opposition to the Red Raiders and both Oklahoma State, Oklahoma or Kansas State. OU and KSU can be rematches. Texas nonetheless has that Alabama win in its hip pocket. We’ve already informed you how that might make brains harm inside of the committee room. 

No. 8 Alabama (10-1): Another one in every of the one-loss applicants without a wriggle room. Beat Auburn and Georgia, and the Crimson Tide are most probably in the playoff. Remember, no SEC champion has been neglected since 2005. Alabama may conceivably be in pageant for 3 spots with different 12-1 convention champions: Oregon, Texas and Louisville. If the resolution comes right down to Texas and Bama, the committee should weigh a regular-season head-to-head highway win for the ‘Horns in opposition to the Tide obviously bettering all through the season and taking down the most sensible workforce of their ratings on the ultimate day of the season in the SEC identify recreation.

No. 9 Louisville (10-1): Long shot. First comes beating Kentucky this week and Florida State in the ACC Championship Game. Then, the Cardinals must hope the Dawgs win out, the Big Ten champion is undefeated and Oregon loses to Oregon State however beats Washington in the Pac-12 Championship Game. In that state of affairs, the SEC and Big Ten champions are in. The best viable Power Five convention champions left to fill the bracket can be Louisville and Texas. And if the ‘Horns lose, a one-loss non-champion or the two-loss Ducks would take the ultimate spot. When you imagine it, possibly the Cardinals don’t seem to be an extended shot. 

The Armageddon Scenario

As an advantage — actually, most commonly for giggles — now we have additionally executed a deep dive on a possible Armageddon Scenario the place no undefeated Power Five groups stay as soon as all is alleged and executed. Here’s how it might pass down.

• Alabama wins out and takes the SEC. The Tide and Dawgs each end 12-1.
• The Ohio State-Michigan winner drops the Big Ten identify to Iowa (do not snigger), completing with the highest report in the league (12-1) as a non-champion. The different finishes 11-1.
• Oregon wins out and takes the Pac-12. The Ducks and Huskies each end 12-1.
• Texas wins out and takes the Big 12 completing 12-1.
• Louisville wins out and takes the ACC.The Cardinals and ‘Noles each end 12-1. 

That creates a state of affairs the place the committee must pit 4 convention champions in opposition to 4 non-champions from the SEC (Georgia), Pac-12 (Washington), Big Ten (Ohio State/Michigan) and ACC (Florida State) who would have simply misplaced their first video games on the season’s ultimate weekend. 

In that state of affairs, we might be having a look at those one-loss resumes.

* Strength of time table because it recently stands by the use of SportsSource Analytics | Ranked information calculated via above eventualities

Who ya were given?