Can the Nuggets stay undefeated at home this postseason? Plus, other best bets for Thursday

rewrite this content material with complete duration and stay HTML tags This is an editorial model of the CBS Sports HQ PM Newsletter, the final day-to-day sports activities playing information. You can signal as much as get it on your inbox each weekday afternoon right here. All instances Eastern, and all odds by the use of Caesars Sportsbook ? The Hot Price ticketHeat at Nuggets, 8:30 p.m. | TV: ABC Latest Odds: Denver Nuggets -9 Key Trend: The Nuggets are 30-18-1 ATS at home this season, and feature gained the first recreation in their first 3 playoff collection by means of a median of 17.7 issues. The Pick: Nuggets -9 (-110)I really like the Nuggets at home this night for plenty of causes. The first is that the Nuggets had been such a lot higher at home all season. In the postseason, the Nuggets have performed 8 video games at Ball Arena and gained all 8. They’ve long past 5-3 ATS in the ones video games and feature gained by means of a median of 12.25 issues.Now, it should be identified that they had been handiest preferred by means of greater than 9 issues in a kind of video games, and it used to be as 10-point favorites towards Minnesota in Game 5. But whilst quite a few other folks will argue “rest vs. rust,” it is a dumb argument. The Nuggets had been ready to get proper whilst the Heat had been in a seven-game struggle towards the Celtics. I’d relatively be rested and fairly rusty than worn the hell out.Finally, whilst there is a bit an excessive amount of made from it, the altitude issues. It’s a part of the reason why the Nuggets are so excellent at home (the largest section is the complete being an excellent crew factor). So for Miami to play a seven-game collection towards Boston after which need to play at altitude is so much to invite. Particularly for a crew that is been banged up and depending on guys who may exemplify “Heat Culture,” however are not superstars. While I’m comfy taking Denver -9 on the complete recreation, I’ll even be taking Denver in the 2nd part, equipped it isn’t a blowout in the first part. I don’t suppose this will probably be a very easy or quick collection, and I give Miami an actual shot of taking Denver down. However, there is a excellent likelihood this night’s opener is a blowout. If it’s, take Miami and the issues in Game 2.Here’s what SportsLine is pronouncing about the recreation: The SportsLine Projection Model has Denver protecting, however now not by means of sufficient to make it a play. However, our SportsLine mavens have shared quite a few bets they prefer for this night’s NBA Finals opener.? More NBA Finals alternativesThe Pick: Nikola Jokic Over 37.5 Points & Assists (-117) — If you’ll guess on sports activities, it is all the time the most important to stay a nerd round as a result of nerds are there to inform you that, in spite of what you might imagine, person matchups are not predictive in terms of participant efficiency. Just as a result of Nikola Jokic has all the time performed neatly towards Bam Adebayo does now not imply he’ll all the time play neatly towards Bam Adebayo. You believe that information and both concentrate to it or come to a decision it may well be true in the longer term, however you do not care at this time. I’m going with the latter way!In 70 mins towards Miami this season, Jokic has scored 46 issues with 20 assists whilst capturing 69% from the ground. While he has now not surpassed the 37.5-point general we are having a bet this night, he by no means performed greater than 36 mins in both of the ones video games. In the postseason, he is averaging 39 mins in step with recreation (he performed 34 in step with in the common season) and has performed at least 37 mins in 13 of Denver’s 15 playoff video games. More mins will result in extra manufacturing. I don’t want a nerd to inform me that.The Pick: Jimmy Butler Under 27.5 Points (-117) — This prop has been running neatly for me since the 2nd spherical of the playoffs, and I’m now not converting it now. After Jimmy exploded in the Milwaukee collection, his issues prop jumped to 29.5 issues, and it has slowly made its means right down to 27.5 this night for a easy reason why: he is hardly ever long past over it. Butler has long past over his issues prop in 3 of 12 Miami video games since the 2nd spherical started. He’s handiest scored 28 issues in 4 of the ones 12 video games. Butler is also the alpha of the Heat roster, however he does not want to dominate the photographs, and his shot hasn’t been falling a lot in recent times, anyway. He’s capturing 42.4% from the ground since the first recreation of the 2nd spherical and has been reliant on attending to the free-throw line to attain. He does now not get to the free-throw line as continuously on the street as at home.? SportsLine Pick of the Day: It’s a restricted MLB slate this night, and the Projection Model’s favourite play is on the general between the Red Sox and Reds at Fenway Park. 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